Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

I could sure use a good day today. Saturday wasn't bad with a small $14 profit for me. Yesterday wasn't bad either with a small $9 profit. But days like that aren't going to cut it. I need some good days where I'm seeing at least $50-$100 profits otherwise I'm likely to go back to just playing the big stakes races on the weekends.

I'm in on all plays. Hopefully I don't jinx you again Shark. Let's go Cold Hearted Pearl!

 

[Sharkey]

I'm in on all plays. Hopefully I don't jinx you again Shark. Let's go Cold Hearted Pearl!

Awesome. Thanks for playing along, T. I'm also thinking about playing an exacta or tri box in race 5 at Mahoning Valley today just because I see the favourite as vulnerable that race. Payouts could be excellent if it hits. But I'm going to wait on the earlier races to see how I do in those before pulling the trigger since they're more high risk.

I also tweaked the formula I was using last week, which was tweaked from the one you have. I found that certain things were being undervalued (especially class) and certain things were being overvalued (early speed for some horses, etc). Certain things were having too much of an impact on the numbers the way I was doing it, so I tried to trim the fat a bit a couple of days ago when reassessing. I've just been using this new equation the last couple of days, and while I've only seen a small profit each of them, the vast majority of the horses I've played have ran well regardless if they cashed or not (I've lost 3 or 4 photos with only 1 that went my way). Only a small sample size so far, but we should see our horses give us plenty of chances to cash on some races today, and with a little luck we may be able to have a very good day.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

If you want to play an exacta or trifecta in race 5 yourself these are who I have in the top 4 on the numbers;

#3 Pure Trust 10/1
#8 Big Daddy Bear 6/1
#2 Chief Joseph 10/1 (coupled entry)
#6 Hardly Home 8/1

The #1A Our Gordie is the 5/2 favourite (coupled entry), but I have that horse ranked 5th. A 19 point regression last race. Struggled to finish well last race despite getting an easy lead all throughout, and this race today is taking place at a longer distance. It's best race came over a sloppy track, which it isn't getting today. It's a fast track today, which this horse has never won on. The favourite is also moving up in class and going against better horses than it's ever faced before. It could win, of course. It is the favourite afterall. But it'll probably need to get away with an easy lead in this race, and with horses like the #2B and #8 breaking from gates outside of it, I don't know if an easy lead is what it'll be getting today. I see it getting outside pressure while pinned down on the rail, and if that's the case, I think this one will be backing up pretty badly in the stretch.

Also, hopefully you'll be able to watch race 1 at Mahoning Valley at least. Humorous Chant is fun to watch. She'll run as fast as she can for as far as she can, which is the time you and I will be holding our breaths hoping she hangs on to the big lead she builds up around the turn.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

If you want to play an exacta or trifecta in race 5 yourself these are who I have in the top 4 on the numbers;

#3 Pure Trust 10/1
#8 Big Daddy Bear 6/1
#2 Chief Joseph 10/1 (coupled entry)
#6 Hardly Home 8/1

The #1A Our Gordie is the 5/2 favourite (coupled entry), but I have that horse ranked 5th. A 19 point regression last race. Struggled to finish well last race despite getting an easy lead all throughout, and this race today is taking place at a longer distance. It's best race came over a sloppy track, which it isn't getting today. It's a fast track today, which this horse has never won on. The favourite is also moving up in class and going against better horses than it's ever faced before. It could win, of course. It is the favourite afterall. But it'll probably need to get away with an easy lead in this race, and with horses like the #2B and #8 breaking from gates outside of it, I don't know if an easy lead is what it'll be getting today. I see it getting outside pressure while pinned down on the rail, and if that's the case, I think this one will be backing up pretty badly in the stretch.

Also, hopefully you'll be able to watch race 1 at Mahoning Valley at least. Humorous Chant is fun to watch. She'll run as fast as she can for as far as she can, which is the time you and I will be holding our breaths hoping she hangs on to the big lead she builds up around the turn.

The #6 Hardly Home scratched, so no trifecta plays for me regardless how I do to start the day. But that scratch makes an exacta box easier to narrow down.

No other scratches involving our horses at either track.

 

[Sharkey]

Matt think the #6 horse, who is the favourite, is going to try to run with Humorous Chant early. First off, I don't know if she can even if she tried. But even if they try those tactics on the favourite you're basically limiting your chances of winning on her because you're going to get burned up on the pace. That would be dumb.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha. I fucking love that horse!

Humorous Chant just absolutely crushes them at just over 3/1.

 

[Sharkey]

The favourite got ran off her feet even trying to keep close to Humorous Chant early. She wasn't close, and faded to 4th. 16/1 longshot closed for 2nd.

 

[Sharkey]

Only a 3rd with Masquerade Party in race 2 at Mahoning Valley. Gave us a shot to at least cash with a place finish until the last few strides.

 

[Sharkey]

Fucking beautiful!

Drummer Don gets it done at almost 13/1 in race 2 at Parx.

 

[Sharkey]

Come on Parx. Hurry up with this inquiry and give me my money.

 

[t6p]

@t6p

If you want to play an exacta or trifecta in race 5 yourself these are who I have in the top 4 on the numbers;

#3 Pure Trust 10/1
#8 Big Daddy Bear 6/1
#2 Chief Joseph 10/1 (coupled entry)
#6 Hardly Home 8/1

The #1A Our Gordie is the 5/2 favourite (coupled entry), but I have that horse ranked 5th. A 19 point regression last race. Struggled to finish well last race despite getting an easy lead all throughout, and this race today is taking place at a longer distance. It's best race came over a sloppy track, which it isn't getting today. It's a fast track today, which this horse has never won on. The favourite is also moving up in class and going against better horses than it's ever faced before. It could win, of course. It is the favourite afterall. But it'll probably need to get away with an easy lead in this race, and with horses like the #2B and #8 breaking from gates outside of it, I don't know if an easy lead is what it'll be getting today. I see it getting outside pressure while pinned down on the rail, and if that's the case, I think this one will be backing up pretty badly in the stretch.

Also, hopefully you'll be able to watch race 1 at Mahoning Valley at least. Humorous Chant is fun to watch. She'll run as fast as she can for as far as she can, which is the time you and I will be holding our breaths hoping she hangs on to the big lead she builds up around the turn.

Just got back from lunch to see that we (you) are crushing it! So of course I had to add that exacta box #3,#8,#2.

I missed that race unfortunately. I might be able to catch a few of the others depending on how busy things get at work.

Let's keep it going bud.

 

[Sharkey]

Getting screwed a little on the payouts with 2 horses being declared non-starters, but still pays close to 12/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Just got back from lunch to see that we (you) are crushing it! So of course I had to add that exacta box #3,#8,#2.

I missed that race unfortunately. I might be able to catch a few of the others depending on how busy things get at work.

Let's keep it going bud.

See if you can catch a replay of race 1 at Mahoning Valley when you get a chance, T. Fun times.

 

[Sharkey]

With 10 races to go we only need one more to go our way to break even @t6p if you're betting the same as me. Two or more for the good guys from here on out is gravy.

 

[t6p]

See if you can catch a replay of race 1 at Mahoning Valley when you get a chance, T. Fun times.

Somehow I didn't even realize that you can watch replays on their website, now I know.

Anyway, what a performance. That didn't even look fair. Very impressive.

 

[t6p]

With 10 races to go we only need one more to go our way to break even @t6p if you're betting the same as me. Two or more for the good guys from here on out is gravy.

Love it Shark. And yup, played them all the same as you.

 

[Sharkey]

We're in a 3 way photo for place here with Mobil At Last. I'm not sure we got it.

 

[Sharkey]

Mobil At Last finished 3rd and missed place by a nose being the 2nd longest shot on the board. Tough luck.

 

[Sharkey]

Somehow I didn't even realize that you can watch replays on their website, now I know.

Anyway, what a performance. That didn't even look fair. Very impressive.

As Matt the announcer said as she crossed the line; "She's fun to watch". She's also fun to bet too. I've got two wins and a place (at huge odds) the three times I've bet her so far.

 

[t6p]

As Matt the announcer said as she crossed the line; "She's fun to watch". She's also fun to bet too. I've got two wins and a place (at huge odds) the three times I've bet her so far.

That's awesome Shark. Nothing better than having a horse (or fighter more often in my case) that you're very familiar with and has come through for you before be undervalued like that.