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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

"Race 13 - #7 Bigger Picture (6/1) to win and place for $5/$10, plus a $1 super with the #8 Sadler's Joy keyed on top of the next four horses on the number"

In with these. That last race knocked all the wind out of me, so I could use something this race to salvage the day.
 
Gonna throw in a $8 daily double for these last two races too by using Bigger Picture with Strike Power. Looks like it'll pay in the 35/1 range if it does somehow hit, so worth the shot even if unlikely.
 
"Race 14 - #1 Strike Power (4/1) to win and place for $5/$10, plus the exacta and trifecta structures I mentioned before (1,6 over 1,6,8,9 over 1,6,8,4,9,3,7)"

Either I'm losing a lot today or just a little unless Strike Power wins and Mississippi finishes 2nd. Maybe then I can salvage something. Thankfully this is a dirt race too. My numbers for turf races suck shit.
 
Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled pretty much killed each other that race dueling through a sub 22 second first quarter. And this was the worst day ever.
 
I'm gonna need an armed escort down the river to South America if LDK finishes 1st or 2nd today.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm gonna need an armed escort down the river to South America if LDK finishes 1st or 2nd today.
Click to expand...

Big play bud? I see the race is about to go off so I threw down a little W/P bet.
 
t6p said:
Big play bud? I see the race is about to go off so I threw down a little W/P bet.
Click to expand...

Nah, just my standard $5/$10 on LDK, T. But I'm also playing the exacta with the #4 keyed on top of the #2 and #5, and then also a small tri with the #4 and #5 with the #2 in the underneath spots.
 
Fuck, the #1 ruined my tri and it would have been a big tri too with the #2 horse running so good for me at 60/1. I had him ranked 4th of 7 on the numbers, plus he also had a positive pace pattern coming out of his last race.
 
Sharkey said:
Fuck, the #1 ruined my tri and it would have been a big tri too with the #2 horse running so good for me at 60/1. I had him ranked 4th of 7 on the numbers, plus he also had a positive pace pattern coming out of his last race.
Click to expand...

So close Shark. I caught the race and I was mumbling at my desk, "get that #1 out of there". At least the numbers were solid once again.
 
"NPT (“New Pace Top”)
General: The horse runs its best 4F dirt Pace Figure of its entire career, yet does not finish with its clear max final Pace Figure. One of the better indicators of future success, the horse is likely to run an improved, oftentimes dramatically so, final pace in its next race. An NPT after a layoff of 60 days or more is powerful.
Technical: Occurs when a horse that posts its highest 4F Pace Figure in its racing career while simultaneously not exceeding its previous final Pace Figure on this surface by at least two points."

http://www.predicteform.com/Pattern-Guide

My wife bought me 'Blinkers Off' for my birthday last month, and I only started reading it a few days ago. Just got to the chapter on new pace tops last night and this #2 horse today was the first time I used it in a wager. It's similar in concept to my E2 angle, although more expansive and covers horse of every style, not just off the pace types. The #2 horse just ran his highest E1 pace figure in his last race as well as one of his highest E2 pace figure (highest over last 10 races) in a career that has spanned 35 races.
 
Let's try this new toy out one more time today.

==========

Race 6;

#7 Chairman Garey (5/1) - 481.9 (positive NPT pace pattern)
#6 Arathorn (3/1) - 469.5 (negative DPOT pace pattern)
#5 Offlee Sinister (10/1) - 465.0
#3 Corinthian Spire (10/1) - 464.7 (positive CPT pace pattern))
#8 Undercover Cat (4/1) - 457.1 (negative DPOT pace pattern)
#4 Invocation (7/2) - 446.7
#2 Mini Cosmo (8/1) - 444.7

==========

Chairman Garey is tops on the numbers and just ran his fastest E1 pace figure of what I'm going to assume is his career since the race summary section lists his highest at a 94 and he ran 101 last race.

Corinthian Spire ranks high enough on the number to be playable at those odds and is also going into this race after having ran his highest E1 pace figure over his last 10 races.

Both Arathorn and Undercover Cat just ran their highest E1 figures out of each's last 10 races, but also increased their final figures by a substantial margin each (by 13 and 9 respectively). They look like plays against considering their odds even without the pace pattern included with it. Arathorn was a 66-86 horse in each of his previous 9 races before the 99 he got last race. Undercover Cat's range was consistently 78-84 before that 93 he got last time. They're not youngsters by any means with over 100 races between them, so odds are incredibly high that they revert back to their norms no matter what pace pattern they have. But it's a negative pace pattern for both regardless.

A #7, #5, #3 exacta box for me I'm thinking, and focusing on the #7 in win and place bets.
 
Remember all those times I've said I loved you, Mahoning Valley? Yeah? I know you've been really good to me the past few months, but after the day I had on Saturday I could really use some love thrown back my way today. Please?
 
Looks like 2 of my 3 could go off at double digit odds, including my top ranked horse who I'm playing straight. We'll see what happens, but you gotta love these racinos sometimes when they allow legitimate threats to go off at long odds.
 
I think I hit the back end tri at least. Haha.

Fuck my life, and send all these bums to Overeem.
 
I'm going to take a small flyer on the #2 Mugrosito to win and place here in race 8 since I'm apparently a glutton for punishment.
 
23/1 over 25/1 for anybody lucky enough to hit that exacta, which paid almost 480/1. The super paid about 10,000/1. Why couldn't my 30/1 shot get up there and involved in it?
 
Don't see much value with any longshots today at Mahoning Valley after doing the numbers for them unfortunately, so I'm just going to play the following horses to win for $10 each. I have to bet them and forget them, though, and will have to take whatever odds I get. Hopefully none of them get bet down too much.


Race 2 - Reward's Girl 5/2

Race 4 - Alycar Flash 4/1

Race 5 - Roseyjersey 7/2

Race 7 - Siena Slew 5/1

Race 8 - Lunar Heat 3/1
 
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