Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Well if not, I sent you a message too. Thanks again Shark.

Thankfully you did too because when I tried to send you one it said I wasn't able to with a message "you're doing it wrong, idiot".

 

[BluntTrauma21]

A lot a practice, my friend. I used a similar system last summer and into the winter, which was actually much more complicated believe it or now because I used to calculate different angles into the equation as well. But I could never find the proper values for certain angles, so I gave up on that one and came up with this one instead, which is still a work in progress since there is still stuff we can add to it if we can find the proper values. I can get a number for a horse in less than a minute using this way, and then spend a couple/few minutes after making what limited judgement calls we still need to make. One race takes me 10-15 tops, so I can breeze through a card within a couple of hours. You'll get faster at it with more experience for sure.

Wow, that's waaaay quicker than me. That's very impressive. Makes me feel better that maybe I'll start to get through it quicker with more time under my belt. i feel like you've done this horse racing handicapping before, just a guess .

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, that's waaaay quicker than me. That's very impressive. Makes me feel better that maybe I'll start to get through it quicker with more time under my belt. i feel like you've done this horse racing handicapping before, just a guess .

Oh, you will for sure, Blunt. I've done hundreds and hundreds of races over the past 7 or 8 months using a similar method, so you're obviously only going to get quicker at doing it as well. It's actually good you're taking your time for now and not rushing it.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Oh, you will for sure, Blunt. I've done hundreds and hundreds of races over the past 7 or 8 months using a similar method, so you're obviously only going to get quicker at doing it as well. It's actually good you're taking your time for now and not rushing it.

yeah I'm pretty terrible with math and the last thing I want to do is take a good formula and screw the equation up so it takes me a longtime for those two reasons, mainly. Will get back on it soon, tho, practice makes perfect as they say.
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I'm gonna get good at this, I'm determined to no matter how long it takes me. I've lost interest in capping almost all sports other than this and some boxing and mma.

 

[t6p]

Thankfully you did too because when I tried to send you one it said I wasn't able to with a message "you're doing it wrong, idiot".

Haha, it wasn't you bud. Someone else said they couldn't PM me too, so I just checked my settings and it looks like I had the ability for people to start conversations with me turned off. I think it should be fixed now.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@Sharkey you got anything going for SA today? Just wondering so I can tail in case you did make some plays. on the other hand you deserve a day or two off with all the capping you've been doing lately.

Pegasus this weekend should be interesting, ppl wondering if Gun Runner will be affected by the 10 spot he drew. but assuming he'll be almost unplayable no matter how far in or out he was gonna be.

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey you got anything going for SA today? Just wondering so I can tail in case you did make some plays. on the other hand you deserve a day or two off with all the capping you've been doing lately.

Pegasus this weekend should be interesting, ppl wondering if Gun Runner will be affected by the 10 spot he drew. but assuming he'll be almost unplayable no matter how far in or out he was gonna be.

Nah, I think I'm going to pass on any races today, Blunt. Sent the secret formula off to T earlier today, so making sure he has a handle on it is kinda my priority today with the ponies.

I'll be playing against Gun Runner myself on Saturday for the most part, although not sure with who yet, though. May include him in a defensive saver exacta with a decent price horse or two if I can find one. Or maybe not. Beyond that I'll try to beat him. The post he drew is obviously a big concern for his backers since it's such a short run to the 1st turn for races at that distance at Gulfstream. Plus you also have to factor that he'll likely have a target on his back and may find himself even wider around the turns due to other jocks riding their own horses out to him a bit. He's probably going to have to work really hard to win from out there, and I really don't want nothing to do with him at such a short price. He's obviously the best horse in the race, so if he beats me at 3/5 or 4/5 from out there then that's okay. I can easily live with that.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Nah, I think I'm going to pass on any races today, Blunt. Sent the secret formula off to T earlier today, so making sure he has a handle on it is kinda my priority today with the ponies.

I'll be playing against Gun Runner myself on Saturday for the most part, although not sure with who yet, though. May include him in a defensive saver exacta with a decent price horse or two if I can find one. Or maybe not. Beyond that I'll try to beat him. The post he drew is obviously a big concern for his backers since it's such a short run to the 1st turn for races at that distance at Gulfstream. Plus you also have to factor that he'll likely have a target on his back and may find himself even wider around the turns due to other jocks riding their own horses out to him a bit. He's probably going to have to work really hard to win from out there, and I really don't want nothing to do with him at such a short price. He's obviously the best horse in the race, so if he beats me at 3/5 or 4/5 from out there then that's okay. I can easily live with that.

Nice, GL, @t6p you'll probably get a hold of quicker than I did, I'm terrible with math, but it's still somehow fun even tho I hate numbers, lol. Sharkey is super patient so you can ask him stupid questions and he won't get annoyed, believe me I've asked some dumb shit, haha. Sorry Shark. Anyway looking forward to capping the races with you guys now that we have 3 of us in on the Sharkey Formula.

Good stuff as always Shark. Should be interesting to see if we can find a horse to beat him. No fun in playing him at those odds, but also probably one of those races where public money floods in and creates better odds for contenders at even better prices than they should be. Could be a big payday if we can beat Gun Runner, that's for sure.

 

[Sharkey]

Nice, GL, @t6p you'll probably get a hold of quicker than I did, I'm terrible with math, but it's still somehow fun even tho I hate numbers, lol. Sharkey is super patient so you can ask him stupid questions and he won't get annoyed, believe me I've asked some dumb shit, haha. Sorry Shark. Anyway looking forward to capping the races with you guys now that we have 3 of us in on the Sharkey Formula.

Good stuff as always Shark. Should be interesting to see if we can find a horse to beat him. No fun in playing him at those odds, but also probably one of those races where public money floods in and creates better odds for contenders at even better prices than they should be. Could be a big payday if we can beat Gun Runner, that's for sure.

Just did the numbers for that race if you're interested;

#10 Gun Runner 4/5 - 524.4
#4 Sharp Azteca 6/1 - 513.3
#2 West Coast 8/1 - 510.4
#5 Collected 8/1 - 492.4

Average score for the field was 488.5, and these were the only four that were above average. The rest scored within the 465-480 range, so not much interest from me there with any others. I wasn't really interested in Collected either after his last race, but maybe Baffert can work his magic on him and get him back to form. Eek. Maybe a #2, #4, #5 exacta box for me, and then settle on whoever offers up the value come post time between Sharp Azteca and West Coast for win/place.

 

[Sharkey]

If I put in a post position value into the equation like I did yesterday with Mahoning Valley (small tweak I made for that day only due to outside speed playing so well the 2 days before), I'd have Sharp Azteca only 5 points behind Gun Runnner and West Coast 6 points behind.

 

[Sharkey]

It's just one race too if I swing and miss on that one. No biggie at all since we're playing what 30-40 races a week or something like that.

 

[Sharkey]

On paper War Story looks eerily similar to the way Shaman Ghost did going into last year's Pegasus when we were able to tip him to run a good race and then he rounded out the exacta for us as a longshot. War Story is also tied with Gunnevera for 5th on the numbers (just at 480.4 though). Maybe an underneath option if you guys are interested in playing some trifectas or supers?

 

[Sharkey]

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I did 2 and 5 for Aqu but didn't get a chance to post em earlier. Hit place on race 2 so up a little.

Now that I post my other play it'll probably lose.
Aqu 5

#1 Wilshire Star win/place sitting at 4/1 /#4Bunyaan and #6Thirsty Boonerstag to place for tiny bets at longer odds 12/1 and 10/1 respectively.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Guick probably the better play rn, Wilshire's taking a lot of money. Getting Guick at 5-1 and they're very close in numbers. Both longer shots probably not worth it anymore. Down to 6-1 now.

 

[Sharkey]

Guick probably the better play rn, Wilshire's taking a lot of money. Getting Guick at 5-1 and they're very close in numbers. Both longer shots probably not worth it anymore. Down to 6-1 now.

I love the way you're looking for the value here, Blunt. You still have 15 mins too, so let the board play out for a while yet before pulling the trigger. You'll find your value best just before they enter the gates.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I love the way you're looking for the value here, Blunt. You still have 15 mins too, so let the board play out for a while yet before pulling the trigger. You'll find your value best just before they enter the gates.

Got the Tote board to look at now, thanks to you, helps a ton.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Linda Rice training Guick too, that's gotta be good at Aqueduct.

 

[Sharkey]

Got the Tote board to look at now, thanks to you, helps a ton.

That's the way to do it, bud. Favourites only win at about a 33-35% clip and 2nd choices are down somewhere in the 22-23% range. Unless you have exceptional skills/luck in spotting the right ones, betting those types is almost guaranteeing you lose in the long run. That leaves over 40% of the races being won by a horse beyond the top 2 betting choices, and that's what we want to find. We want horses that are underbet based on what our system says, not overbet.

 

[Sharkey]

Linda Rice training Guick too, that's gotta be good at Aqueduct.

You got it I'd assume?