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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

t6p said:
Definitely not your fault Shark. It was a reading comprehension issue on our end. I guess we're just not used to betting races that late in the day here and it didn't click.
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I should have made it more clear then, T. One of you missing out I can maybe understand. But if it's both of you missing out then that's on me.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
btw @Sharkey what's up with all the late scratches. What goes into the thinking to pull a horse the day of? It seems to happen all the time. I had to switch up a few bets even tho I made the bets earlier this morning. Hopefully the cancel those three team exactas where the scratches happened, don't see why they wouldn't but still basically have twice the money b/c I had to rebet a couple races.
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A lot of reasons, bud. Sometimes they'll scratch a horse because it's feeling a little sick in the morning or something else physical. Sometimes the horses will give an indicated that they're not going to run well the morning of the race by being listless (or the opposite, and they're way over aggressive) or refusing to show any energy in their pre-race routine. Sometimes they'll scratch a horse due to the track conditions (maybe it rained, or the opposite, and they entered hoping it rained). Sometimes a trainer scratches a horse just because of the competition in the race too. They generally don't know who else will be entered in the race before entering themselves, and they're hoping it came up weaker. There's any number of reasons really.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
only did the first three races for aqueduct so far but will try to get more in if I have time. hope these hit, but I'll believe it when I see it.

in order

Race 1 #6 Curtis/ #5Bobby on Fleek/ #4Bluebelt

Race 2 #5 Mikayla/ #7 Conquest/ #2 Bon Heir

Race 3 #1 Midnight Disguise/ #4 Take Charge Tina/ #5 Hail

Tried my best hope these hit. I boxed each three with exactas, except for race 2 where I only bet the 5/7 box. Also have win/place bets on Curtis/Mikayla/Midnight Disguise. And put a place bet on Take Charge Tina.

This could be a disaster but I'm hoping for the best. Will try to get to more races if I have the time. GL boys. Be ready to lose some money, tho, I'm not very good at this yet.
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Cheers, Blunt. Thanks for doing the work on these. I'm playing those races along with you, although once again I'm going to let the tote board tell me who to play. No more overbet favourites for me. I want the one of the three who is being underbet.
 
Sharkey said:
Cheers, Blunt. Thanks for doing the work on these. I'm playing those races along with you, although once again I'm going to let the tote board tell me who to play. No more overbet favourites for me. I want the one of the three who is being underbet.
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Yeah it's getting ridiculous. Last thing I want to do in this sport is bet a -money favorite. Ugh.
 
Sharkey said:
A lot of reasons, bud. Sometimes they'll scratch a horse because it's feeling a little sick in the morning or something else physical. Sometimes the horses will give an indicated that they're not going to run well the morning of the race by being listless (or the opposite, and they're way over aggressive) or refusing to show any energy in their pre-race routine. Sometimes they'll scratch a horse due to the track conditions (maybe it rained, or the opposite, and they entered hoping it rained). Sometimes a trainer scratches a horse just because of the competition in the race too. They generally don't know who else will be entered in the race before entering themselves, and they're hoping it came up weaker. There's any number of reasons really.
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Gotcha, makes sense, altho frustrating it's probably the right move in most cases. Gotta protect the horse first and foremost.
 
Actually I think I'll pass on these first two races at Aqueduct since they're such small fields now with all the scratches. The 3rd race is definitely an option, though, if the the 2nd ranked horse goes at at anything close to her 12/1 morning line.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah it's getting ridiculous. Last thing I want to do in this sport is bet a -money favorite. Ugh.
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Well, we don't have to, my friend. We have the system now and we can see the live odds. Let that be your guide on where the value is.
 
Sharkey said:
Well, we don't have to, my friend. We have the system now and we can see the live odds. Let that be your guide on where the value is.
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Is there a link you can hit me with to see the live tote? That would help a ton esp if I wait to make the bets until just a few mins before.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Is there a link you can hit me with to see the live tote? That would help a ton esp if I wait to make the bets until just a few mins before.
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http://www.drf.com/live_odds

They of course show the live odds on the broadcast if getting the track feed.

https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/live#

Click on the Multi-camera box in red there, and when the video pops up on the right you should see the live odds. You can also watch all the pre-race stuff there too if you click the grey box underneath the video and bring up the low bit broadcast.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Is there a link you can hit me with to see the live tote? That would help a ton esp if I wait to make the bets until just a few mins before.
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That's really the time to do it if you can. I wouldn't have bet a lot of these short priced horses we ended up betting this past week if I didn't give out the picks in advance like I did. When I do that I'm obligated to bet them, though, so I'm stuck with them and whatever odds I get. I don't want to have do that anymore, so I'm just going to be giving out the top 3/4 horses on the number when I do races for now on and take the best value just before they enter the gate. That might be the top horse on the number going off at 9/2 like yesterday at Mahoning Valley. Or the 3rd ranked horse that was only a couple points out of 2nd going off at 21/1 at Delta Downs.
 
Bob Baffert seems like a great trainer and a very boring guy.
 
See this is value to me. The top ranked horse on the number is currently sitting at 7/2 in a 4 horse field. $5 win bet for me.
 
that was another terrible race. good job passing shark. Fuck me.
 
Sharkey said:
I played it, bud. For just $5, though.
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sorry bout that, glad you kept it small. The horse that won that race, Madame something, had a 381.1 rating. That's crazy she pulled it off, very low number. Another horse that got scratched was up over 500, one of the highest I've seen since doing the numbers.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
26-1 Horse takes it. Wow. 4 horse field.
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Hopefully you got off the exacta box in that race with all the scratches, bud. Because it was only a 4 horse field your exacta payouts would have only been from 3/1 to 8/1 depending what hit. If you're boxing the exacta you're playing 6 combos, so you'd basically be giving away money in that situation unless your best payout hit. But if your best potential payout is only 8/1 then there's no point.
 
Take charge Tina could be worth a bet, sitting at 15/1 atm 10mins before post. Second on the numbers, good odds. Maybe she can show us something here. Midnight Disguise well the leader by a dozen pts or so, tho. Just much shorter odds.
 
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