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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
Hopefully you got off the exacta box in that race with all the scratches, bud. Because it was only a 4 horse field your exacta payouts would have only been from 3/1 to 8/1 depending what hit. If you're boxing the exacta you're playing 6 combos, so you'd basically be giving away money in that situation unless your best payout hit. But if your best potential payout is only 8/1 then there's no point.
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Yeah I had one push but went back and added another. I'm still green with this so I'm pretty bad with calculating payouts that being said, boxing chalk in a box in such a small field is just dumb of me. Rookie mistake on my part. Thanks for the heads up, gonna just bet straights win/places if I have chalk and/or in a small field.
 
Hail a big favorite, first time lasix, numbers have him behind the other two, tho. Not many races to go by, tho.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah I had one push but went back and added another. I'm still green with this so I'm pretty bad with calculating payouts that being said, boxing chalk in a box in such a small field is just dumb of me. Rookie mistake on my part. Thanks for the heads up, gonna just bet straights win/places if I have chalk and/or in a small field.
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You were just victimized by the scratches there through no fault of your own. Just something to be aware of going forward, though.
 
Sharkey said:
You do okay this last one?
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Tina shit the bed, but Midnight Disguise came through for me. The exacta box missed as well. Not sure what the payout will be but I'm assuming break even give or take. I'll take it. Thanks God I bet the win/place, my exotics SUCK, haha.
 
Midnight clearly had the best number, too. So that's good for the formula.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah I had one push but went back and added another. I'm still green with this so I'm pretty bad with calculating payouts that being said, boxing chalk in a box in such a small field is just dumb of me. Rookie mistake on my part. Thanks for the heads up, gonna just bet straights win/places if I have chalk and/or in a small field.
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The link I gave you for the live odds on DRF will have the exacta payouts included, so no calculations needed on your part, my friend. Click on the 2nd column "Probable Pays" and it'll be there for you.
 
I still can't believe the missed opportunities the last couple of days guys. Especially with @t6p. Gets distracted at work for a moment and misses a huge exacta payout. Get's nosed at the wire and just misses a huge trifecta payout. And then the race last night where he would have crushed both the huge exacta and trifecta if I only made it clearer. I don't know how big he plays, but even with the minimum bets allowed that's missing out on something close to a $1000 in additional profit. That's rough. It really is. Fuck.
 
Sharkey said:
I still can't believe the missed opportunities the last couple of days guys. Especially with @t6p. Gets distracted at work for a moment and misses a huge exacta payout. Get's nosed at the wire and just misses a huge trifecta payout. And then the race last night where he would have crushed both the huge exacta and trifecta if I only made it clearer. I don't know how big he plays, but even with the minimum bets allowed that's missing out on something close to a $1000 in additional profit. That's rough. It really is. Fuck.
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As frustrating as it is Shark, I would never even have been near any of those bets without the work that you put in and share with us, so I can't really complain. Last night's failure was 100% on me, looking back you made it clear that the races were about to happen, but I was doing other things at the same time and not paying full attention to the thread.

I play the horses smaller than I play MMA. My bet sizing is usually the same as yours or very similar. But, even with the smaller bet sizing those would have been massive hits, even for my MMA bankroll.

All that's over and done with now though. With the way the Sharkey formula has been performing, I'm very confident even bigger wins are coming, as long as I actually manage to put the bets in, haha.
 
t6p said:
As frustrating as it is Shark, I would never even have been near any of those bets without the work that you put in and share with us, so I can't really complain. Last night's failure was 100% on me, looking back you made it clear that the races were about to happen, but I was doing other things at the same time and not paying full attention to the thread.

I play the horses smaller than I play MMA. My bet sizing is usually the same as yours or very similar. But, even with the smaller bet sizing those would have been massive hits, even for my MMA bankroll.

All that's over and done with now though. With the way the Sharkey formula has been performing, I'm very confident even bigger wins are coming, as long as I actually manage to put the bets in, haha.
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There is a bright side isn't there? Not to pat ourselves on the back too much, but I'm really proud of the way this system has been able to uncover the longshots who have the potential to run well. It's pointed towards some very nice priced winners for us as is, then some other longshots it pegged to run well that we didn't take maximum advantage of. That's what we want it for. We don't really want it pointing at horses that other people are going to like. We want it pointing at horses that other people aren't going to like that much, and it's been doing an absolutely tremendous job this past week of doing exactly that. We just haven't been taking advantage of those opportunities nearly as much as we should. That's going to change.

You know, for all the bad beats we've had in horses just missing late, all the horses getting bet down, and all the missed opportunities we had to crush races we had pegged well, I'm still about $100 to the good over the last week or so. What's that going to look like when we stop making these dumb decisions? Fucking crush, that's what.
 
Here it comes @t6p. It's going to take me a while to type it all out, but you'll have the secret formula very shortly here.
 
Okay, now how do I start a private conversation? If you know @t6p can you hit me up with a quick nothing message that I can respond to. I'm kind of an idiot when it comes to shit like this. Haha.
 
Sharkey said:
A 4th with a 7/1 shot in a 10 horse shouldn't feel that bad, bud.
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I just don't know how you can get through a full 10+ race card, I did 4 last night and earlier today and it took me forever. Maybe my brain's just all clogged up, feel slow today. You are a machine, buddy. I'll start looking again at some races for tomorrow but you're much more efficient with the capping than I am I guess, very impressive.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
I just don't know how you can get through a full 10+ race card, I did 4 last night and earlier today and it took me forever. Maybe my brain's just all clogged up, feel slow today. You are a machine, buddy. I'll start looking again at some races for tomorrow but you're much more efficient with the capping than I am I guess, very impressive.
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A lot a practice, my friend. I used a similar system last summer and into the winter, which was actually much more complicated believe it or now because I used to calculate different angles into the equation as well. But I could never find the proper values for certain angles, so I gave up on that one and came up with this one instead, which is still a work in progress since there is still stuff we can add to it if we can find the proper values. I can get a number for a horse in less than a minute using this way, and then spend a couple/few minutes after making what limited judgement calls we still need to make. One race takes me 10-15 tops, so I can breeze through a card within a couple of hours. You'll get faster at it with more experience for sure.
 
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