Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Hodge23]

Yep just noticed the bets been refunded, may have another look at the race but can't remember anything else standing out.

Cavorting looked to be going nowhere at one point but powered through to win nicely. Was really confident in my Carina Mia bet @ 7/2 when i saw she was Even Money with the US Tote, but she wasn't good enough in the end.

Man, thats the last time i bet Mohaymen, thought the drop to 7f could help him regain some form but nope, finished 2nd last? in the end.

Just 1U up now and may leave it at that until the Travers, looking forward to seeing Flintshire in action later though. I will see what price he is with the Tote, he's 1/4 here which is way too short for me but i would probably bite if it was anything like 1/2, can't see him losing.

 

[Sharkey]

Yep just noticed the bets been refunded, may have another look at the race but can't remember anything else standing out.

Cavorting looked to be going nowhere at one point but powered through to win nicely. Was really confident in my Carina Mia bet @ 7/2 when i saw she was Even Money with the US Tote, but she wasn't good enough in the end.

Man, thats the last time i bet Mohaymen, thought the drop to 7f could help him regain some form but nope, finished 2nd last? in the end.

Just 1U up now and may leave it at that until the Travers, looking forward to seeing Flintshire in action later though. I will see what price he is with the Tote, he's 1/4 here which is way too short for me but i would probably bite if it was anything like 1/2, can't see him losing.

At the 7/1 price you got I didn't think your bet on Mohaymen was that bad. I was looking at him as one of the contenders myself on the cut back, but just knew that he'd be unplayable at the odds he'd be going off as in the pools. I think he was 3/1 entering the gates. But yeah, he's been burning up a lot of people's money this year.

I'm glad Economic Model was able to finish 2nd against the loose on the lead winner even though I passed on him in this spot.

You're probably going to be in a position to just watch the Sword Dancer of looking for 1/2 on Flintshire. Can't imagine he goes off anything better than 1/5 with maybe even 1/9 being a real possibility.

 

[Hodge23]

At the 7/1 price you got I didn't think your bet on Mohaymen was that bad. I was looking at him as one of the contenders myself on the cut back, but just knew that he'd be unplayable at the odds he'd be going off as in the pools. I think he was 3/1 entering the gates. But yeah, he's been burning up a lot of people's money this year.

I'm glad Economic Model was able to finish 2nd against the loose on the lead winner even though I passed on him in this spot.

You're probably going to be in a position to just watch the Sword Dancer of looking for 1/2 on Flintshire. Can't imagine he goes off anything better than 1/5 with maybe even 1/9 being a real possibility.

Haha yeah i thought that 1/2 was a little bit hopeful but i wasn't sure with some of the odds differences you see sometimes !

Ok so I've changed my Travers play to

3U E/W GM
2U E/W Creator

Same stake just more emphasis on GM this way. Will leave it at that now

 

[t6p]

Going with the following:

1u Creator Win
1u Creator Place
1u Governor Malibu Win
1u Governor Malibu Place
0.35u Exacta Box Creator/Governor Malibu/Destin
0.1u Trifecta Box Creator/Governor Malibu/Destin

Good luck guys!

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Malibu win
Creator win
Creator place
Creator/Malibu/Destin exacta box

Time to make some money boys. GL.

 

[Sharkey]

Travers bets are in. Finally. It's been a long month.

Let's do this!

 

[Sharkey]

Umm, wow.

 

[Hodge23]

Wow, stunned ! Don't think anyone could ever have predicted a performance like that

 

[t6p]

That was insane

 

[Sharkey]

That was ridiculous. Crushes the Travers record, breaks the track record for the distance, and beats this field by 13 1/2 lengths. For a horse that had beaten absolutely nothing coming into the race. That's crazy. The track may have been souped up a little since speed held so well til the end. But still, that was insane.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Whoa nobody saw that coming, what a performance. Won on a match up bet with Creator over Laoban, if twitter is to be trusted but not sure if it's correct or not, book still hasn't graded it yet. They did accidentally grade Malibu as a winner but took it down a few mins later lol.

 

[Sharkey]

Whoa nobody saw that coming, what a performance. Won on a match up bet with Creator over Laoban, if twitter is to be trusted but not sure if it's correct or not, book still hasn't graded it yet. They did accidentally grade Malibu as a winner but took it down a few mins later lol.

I think Creator finished 6th. Governor Malibu was 5th I believe, although I haven't seen the full finishing order yet. Laoban was going backwards on the turn, so I would imagine he continued to do so in the stretch and Creator went by him.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

yeah I'm reading Creator went 7 and Laoban went 12, I'll take that. You think Arrogate is really this good or will he be getting overrated in later races b/c of this performance?

 

[Sharkey]

yeah I'm reading Creator went 7 and Laoban went 12, I'll take that. You think Arrogate is really this good or will he be getting overrated in later races b/c of this performance?

No horse is that good, Blunt. None. That's a performance that even the best horses in history would be hard to match on their very best days. It was incredible. He's obviously very good if he can remain sound (which isn't a given considering his sire), but a performance like that is a once every decade type of thing for all of horse racing. I can't remember the last time I saw a performance like that from a 3 year-old. Maybe Afleet Alex's 2005 Belmont? Point Given in 2001 Belmont? That performance of Arrogate's was as good as it gets. Mind you, we have seen couple of those unbelievable runs this year with Frosted in the Met Mile and now today's race.

 

[Hodge23]

Arrogate 5/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic, not sure what to make of that guys ? If it was no fluke thats a fairly big price, big if though.

Out of interest whats the weight for age allowance in that race?

Ive got 5/1 California Chrome and was hugely confident before that performance threw a spanner in the works

 

[Sharkey]

Arrogate 5/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic, not sure what to make of that guys ? If it was no fluke thats a fairly big price, big if though.

Out of interest whats the weight for age allowance in that race?

Ive got 5/1 California Chrome and was hugely confident before that performance threw a spanner in the works

Not 100% sure, but I think 3 year-olds get 4 lbs? 122 and then 126 for olders, I think. I'm going on memory, though.

At the same price, I'd much prefer Chrome since he's consistently been putting forth top class efforts all year in the big races. We often see horses put one big effort together and then regress afterwards never to get back to their peak effort. Granted almost none put forth an effort like Arrogate did today. But still, let's see what he's got to offer next time out. If healthy, I'm sure he'll race again before the Classic.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm very curious what kind of BSF Arrogate gets for that race. I'm thinking it's got to be north of 120 myself since he beat horses who run in the range of 100 by 13 1/2 lengths. If you don't give him a 120+ then you're basically saying that every other horse in the field regressed by 10 or more points, which is highly unlikely.

 

[Sharkey]

American Freedom has ran a 98 two or three times in a row now. A 13 1/2 length margin over a 98 BSF is a 125.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]