Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Final BSF number;

 

[Sharkey]

That 123 BSF ties Frosted's Met Mile as the highest of the year and the highest seen in a decade. Pretty phenomenal.

 

[t6p]

I talked to my buddy who lives in Saratoga today. He was at the track with a pretty big group yesterday and he tells me that no one had Arrogate on any of their tickets. He said he didn't even come across anyone who did. Just figured I'd pass that along.

 

[Sharkey]

I talked to my buddy who lives in Saratoga today. He was at the track with a pretty big group yesterday and he tells me that no one had Arrogate on any of their tickets. He said he didn't even come across anyone who did. Just figured I'd pass that along.

I don't know too many that had him either, T. One of the handicappers on the broadcast picked him. May have been Matt Bernier. I know Mike Beer of DRF picked him, but he didn't do it with much confidence it seems. I know Cowboy Cox tweeted about how Arrogate's back end looked like a coiled spring or something like that in the post parade, and I think he made a last minute bet on him. But very few people I know were picking him. I have no idea where that performance of his came from.

The day after and after Arrogate's effort was digested, I'm kind of ticked off at myself for the way I looked at this race. Not sure I would have ever picked him. But all the data I looked at before the race was basically useless. Absolutely nothing I posted about the race ended up fitting into the results. None of the top 3 ran at Saratoga before. None of the top 3 ran in either the Jim Dandy or the Belmont. Yet the recent historical data I compiled were strongly in favour of those type of trends. Nothing. Sorry guys. I messed up badly in looking at that race and hate that I may have steered you guys and your money in the wrong direction. Everything I looked at was useless to us, so my apologies for that.

 

[t6p]

I don't know too many that had him either, T. One of the handicappers on the broadcast picked him. May have been Matt Bernier. I know Mike Beer of DRF picked him, but he didn't do it with much confidence it seems. I know Cowboy Cox tweeted about how Arrogate's back end looked like a coiled spring or something like that in the post parade, and I think he made a last minute bet on him. But very few people I know were picking him. I have no idea where that performance of his came from.

The day after and after Arrogate's effort was digested, I'm kind of ticked off at myself for the way I looked at this race. Not sure I would have ever picked him. But all the data I looked at before the race was basically useless. Absolutely nothing I posted about the race ended up fitting into the results. None of the top 3 ran at Saratoga before. None of the top 3 ran in either the Jim Dandy or the Belmont. Yet the recent historical data I compiled were strongly in favour of those type of trends. Nothing. Sorry guys. I messed up badly in looking at that race and hate that I may have steered you guys and your money in the wrong direction. Everything I looked at was useless to us, so my apologies for that.

Don't beat yourself up, Shark. I still feel like the reasoning for your picks was sound, but outliers like Saturday are always going to happen. Nothing you can do but move on.

You've put us onto winners in the past and I think I speak for everyone ITT when I say that there's absolutely no need to apologize.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Stuff your sorry's in a sack, Shark. #Alliteration.

t6p couldn't have put it better. No need for apologies we've won way too much money, sometimes you lose, especially with the ponies who are constantly going off at multiple double digit odds. But that feeling when you win though, nothing in the world like hitting a late closer down the stretch at 14-1. You've given us many winners, we'll get em back soon enough.

 

[Sharkey]

Ah, it's just frustration speaking on my part. That's all. I've had a pretty terrible summer betting these 3 year-olds after what was a pretty terrific spring for me. They've left me dumbfounded. Oh well. We got the Woodward next week for older horses to try to figure out, and then the last big race for these 3 year-olds, the Pennsylvania Derby, is coming up in a few weeks as well. Both Gun Runner and Exaggerator are supposed to be going, and Nyquist will be sitting there waiting for them. Others we know as well, of course. Looks like Creator is getting an extended break for some time, though, after all the racing he's been doing the last six months or so. It'll do him some good after his last two disappointing efforts.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Yeah glad Creator is getting some rest, seems like he's been affected by the workload lately. Looking forward to seeing Nyquist again.

You have any early leans on the Woodward so far @Sharkey? I don't really know where to look but horseracingnation.com has a handful of probables that I recognize like Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Shaman Ghost I think. Really don't know how well they've rn recently, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah glad Creator is getting some rest, seems like he's been affected by the workload lately. Looking forward to seeing Nyquist again.

You have any early leans on the Woodward so far @Sharkey? I don't really know where to look but horseracingnation.com has a handful of probables that I recognize like Frosted, Mubtaahij, and Shaman Ghost I think. Really don't know how well they've rn recently, though.

Well, we'll see what the field looks like once they're all entered and the PP's come out, but it may be tough trying to beat Frosted in that race. He's the 2nd best dirt horse in the world right now behind Chrome, and even if he brings his B game he's very likely to beat whatever shows up for the race. Betting against him means you'd have to hope he runs a bit of a dud and who knows if that'll happen. The value may be in figuring out who finishes 2nd and 3rd to him.

 

[t6p]

I'll be at Saratoga on Saturday and Sunday. The weather is looking perfect and we're planning on getting two full days of races in. Really looking forward to it.

 

[Sharkey]

Parx has added a whole bunch of financial incentives for the Pennsylvania Derby in a few weeks. By default, it's a $1 million race, but they're also going to add an additional $250,000 added to the purse for every triple crown race winner that enters the gates. With Nyquist and Exaggerator already pointed to it, it could be a $1.5 million race. Pretty cool. They're also handing out $100,000 appearance fees for each horse that won a triple crown race or either the Haskell or Travers. Means that the owners of Exaggerator will get $200,000 just for showing up if they do since they won both the Preakness and Haskell. Not so cool since there's big potential for greed to come before a horse's best interest. But it could be a really good field and betting opportunity with Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Cupid, etc., all pointing towards the race.

 

[Sharkey]

Hmm. Just noticed that Arrogate is a grey horse. A dark grey horse, but still a grey. Screw it. I think I may just have to take my own advice for the rest of the year and bet the greys each time out. Yes, I'm losing my mind. And I'm desperate. Haha. Ugh.

 

[Sharkey]

The field for the G1 Woodward;

1 - Shaman Ghost
2 - Breaking Lucky
3 - Frosted
4 - Bradester
5 - Catholic Cowboy
6 - Samraat
7 - Tale of Verve
8 - Tapin Mojo
9 - Mubtaahij


And PP's for these runners;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/


A quick gloss over the PP's say that this may be a race to pass on unless you want to play the lone speed angle with Bradester, who'll probably be getting bet down to 2nd choice anyways and may not offer up a whole lot of value himself.

 

[Sharkey]

That was a great finish to the Woodward yesterday with 4 horses crossing the line together with less than a half length separating them all. If Blunt would have tri boxed his "I recognize" horses he would have hit it big with Shaman Ghost winning, Mubtaahij in 2nd, and then Frosted in 3rd.

Bitumen is running tomorrow in the G1 Hopeful to end the Saratoga meet. He can run and he's been on my radar ever since he impressively broke his maiden in his 1st career start a couple months back. He then won a G3 race in his next start after that by using a different running style and again looked really good in doing so. He's a 2 year-old who could be a major player later on this year in the BC Juvenile and into next year if he stays healthy. He looks like a fast & versatile sort that also appears to have staying power as the distances get longer. Watch out for him.

Edit: Might as well include a video of his last start;

 

[Sharkey]

Here's a much more detailed description of Bitumen for anybody who wants to read it;

http://pickinsider.com/wp/east-coast-posts-bitumen/


For the record, he's the 2/1 morning line favourite for tomorrow's race. I generally don't like playing favourites and especially so with these immature 2 year-olds. But I think I may just bite on that one just because.

 

[t6p]

I managed to turn what would have been a really good weekend betting wise at Saratoga into just a decent one. I played it smart most of the day Saturday and picked a few winners which had me up about 5u at the end of the day. One of my buddies was big on Frosted and put one of his biggest bets ever on him to win. Needless to say he wasn't happy with the finish.

I started the day off Sunday by hitting my first ever super and an exacta in the 3rd race for about 40u. After that I got greedy (the alcohol didn't help) and blew a lot of my winnings on the rest of the races. I finished up around 8u. But, all in all it was a great time and the weather was picture perfect. Already looking forward to next year.

 

[Sharkey]

I managed to turn what would have been a really good weekend betting wise at Saratoga into just a decent one. I played it smart most of the day Saturday and picked a few winners which had me up about 5u at the end of the day. One of my buddies was big on Frosted and put one of his biggest bets ever on him to win. Needless to say he wasn't happy with the finish.

I started the day off Sunday by hitting my first every super and an exacta in the 3rd race for about 40u. After that I got greedy (the alcohol didn't help) and blew a lot of my winnings on the rest of the races. I finished up around 8u. But, all in all it was a great time and the weather was picture perfect. Already looking forward to next year.

Great job, T. Especially hitting that super. I've never done that myself. Mind you, I don't really try to all that often. Maybe once or twice a year on a race like the Derby. Glad you enjoyed yourself in addition to cashing some tickets. There's no meet in horse racing quite like Saratoga and you're pretty lucky to take part in it.

Frosted really should have won that race. Looked like his jockey put the choke on him after missing the break, and then he was forced way out wide on the far turn. He could have been ridden a lot better. He was the best horse going into that race and still is coming out of it, although the result kind of sucks if you were looking to play against him come time for the Classic like I was.

 

[t6p]

Great job, T. Especially hitting that super. I've never done that myself. Mind you, I don't really try to all that often. Maybe once or twice a year on a race like the Derby. Glad you enjoyed yourself in addition to cashing some tickets. There's no meet in horse racing quite like Saratoga and you're pretty lucky to take part in it.

Frosted really should have won that race. Looked like his jockey put the choke on him after missing the break, and then he was forced way out wide on the far turn. He could have been ridden a lot better. He was the best horse going into that race and still is coming out of it, although the result kind of sucks if you were looking to play against him come time for the Classic like I was.

Thanks, Shark. I don't play supers often either and I should have left it that way after that one hit. I did a handful of others afterwards and I might as well have burned the money.

And you're spot on about Frosted. That's the exact same thing we were saying. I didn't bet him personally but I must've heard "fuck Joel Rosario" at least 20 times that night from other guys in our group.

 

[Sharkey]

The field for the G2 Pennsylvania Derby has come up quite nice with some top quality runners having entered and it should be a very good betting race as well;

1 - Awesome Slew - 12/1
2 - Exaggerator - 7/2
3 - Summer Revolution - 20/1
4 - Connect - 12/1
5 - Cupid - 9/2
6 - Wild About Deb - 30/1
7 - Gun Runner 6/1
8 - My Man Sam - 20/1
9 - Nyquist - 5/2
10 - Sunny Ridge - 15/1
11 - Discreet Lover - 30/1
12 - Hit It Once More - 20/1

 

[t6p]

The field for the G2 Pennsylvania Derby has come up quite nice with some top quality runners having entered and it should be a very good betting race as well;

1 - Awesome Slew - 12/1
2 - Exaggerator - 7/2
3 - Summer Revolution - 20/1
4 - Connect - 12/1
5 - Cupid - 9/2
6 - Wild About Deb - 30/1
7 - Gun Runner 6/1
8 - My Man Sam - 20/1
9 - Nyquist - 5/2
10 - Sunny Ridge - 15/1
11 - Discreet Lover - 30/1
12 - Hit It Once More - 20/1

Any early leans, Shark? The weather is looking a little iffy right now, but that could obviously change by Saturday. I don't believe that Nyquist has ever lost on a dry track. The price on Gun Runner looks like it might be tempting.