Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[timmyclax22]

Can't wait for Saturday guys! 88 and sunny!

 

[t6p]

Can't wait for Saturday guys! 88 and sunny!

Only bad part is I'll be an hour away from the track but I won't be able to go.

 

[Sharkey]

Chad Brown's record in graded stakes on the dirt at Saratoga over the past 5 years; 0-2-1 in 17 races. 8 of those 17 went off at relatively low odds of 5/1 or lower with 5 of them being in the 2/1 range.

Very surprised by that. He's of course going to have more success on the grass than on dirt since that's his bread and butter when it comes to training horses. But he's been the 2nd most successful trainer at the track overall over the last 5 years and this year he is leading the standings by quite a bit. I would have figured him to have at least some success on the dirt in graded stakes races in that span. There's very little for him.

Sorry My Man Sam. If I'm thinking about playing a horse in large part because of the trainer's success over the track and yet a deeper look at those trainer stats shows a negative then it's audios amigo.

 

[Sharkey]

I give up trying something to play in the King's Bishop, although coming into the week I thought I knew exactly who I was going to play in that race. But when Economic Model drew the #1 post I had to go searching for an alternative since horses who draw inside on races that start out of the chute are at a big disadvantage due to the inside part of the chute tending to be deeper than mid or outside, they're endanger of being collapsed on by the field if not an early speed type, and even how some can get spooked by the temporary rail put up for those 7F races. It can be especially problematic at Saratoga since it's an angled chute. Races that start from there see the horses having to make a gradual left turn anyways right out of the gate. So since I can't play him from that post and since I can't find a comfortable alternative, I'm going to pass on that race and just use that money in the Travers by doubling my exacta box bet or something like that.

Not that it matters much, or even at all, Majesto has been scratched from the Travers due to him spiking a fever this morning.

 

[Sharkey]

Not sure I'll be changing my mind between now and tomorrow, but right now I'm thinking a win bet on Governor Malibu, win/place on Creator since it looks like he'll go off at higher odds of the two, and then using those two in an exacta box with Destin.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Not sure I'll be changing my mind between now and tomorrow, but right now I'm thinking a win bet on Governor Malibu, win/place on Creator since it looks like he'll go off at higher odds of the two, and then using those two in an exacta box with Destin.

so not boxing Creator and Malibu together but doing separate boxes with both of them and Destin, correct? Just want to make sure I get it right. And then Malibu win bet, Creator to win, Creator place bet, or just one of the two? Thanks.

 

[Sharkey]

so not boxing Creator and Malibu together but doing separate boxes with both of them and Destin, correct? Just want to make sure I get it right. And then Malibu win bet, Creator to win, Creator place bet, or just one of the two? Thanks.

It'll be a 3 horse exacta box for me, Blunt. There's 6 different combinations playing that way, so it will be wager amount x 6. And yeah, I'll be playing Governor Malibu to win and then playing Creator to both win & place. 3 different wagers there.

 

[Sharkey]

so not boxing Creator and Malibu together but doing separate boxes with both of them and Destin, correct? Just want to make sure I get it right. And then Malibu win bet, Creator to win, Creator place bet, or just one of the two? Thanks.

Here Blunt, I'll just give you my planned wagers with the $300 budget I'm allowing myself for tomorrow;

- $80 on Governor Malibu to win
- $40 on Creator to win
- $60 on Creator to place
- $20 exacta box with Governor Malibu, Creator and Destin ($120 total)

Based on what I'm seeing out there it looks like Creator is going to go off at higher odds than the other two, so my win wager doesn't need to be as large on him, and because he's likely going off at higher odds a place bet can offer a decent enough return if he does finish 2nd to someone other than Governor Malibu or Destin.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Thanks as always Sharkey. Can't say this enough times but the amount of work and time you put into researching these races and being kind enough to share all the info you gather with us is really fucking cool and impressive. I think I can speak for everyone else who posts itt, that we all appreciate it immensely. You are a mensch, my friend.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks as always Sharkey. Can't say this enough times but the amount of work and time you put into researching these races and being kind enough to share all the info you gather with us is really fucking cool and impressive. I think I can speak for everyone else who posts itt, that we all appreciate it immensely. You are a mensch, my friend.

Ah, you're being way too kind, Blunt. I'd be looking up all this stuff anyways for these big races like the Travers, so sharing it with friends isn't anything at all. Like anybody who gambles, I'm just trying to win a little money now and then. I do appreciate all that stuff you said, though. Thank you.

 

[t6p]

Thanks as always Sharkey. Can't say this enough times but the amount of work and time you put into researching these races and being kind enough to share all the info you gather with us is really fucking cool and impressive. I think I can speak for everyone else who posts itt, that we all appreciate it immensely. You are a mensch, my friend.

I second all of this. Sharkey does an amazing job breaking down all the fine details. Much appreciated.

I'll be tailing everything tomorrow for sure, but rooting a little bit harder for Creator.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Aaaahh Creator. I love that horse more than some of my family members.

 

[Sharkey]

Another win tomorrow and Creator will have basically sewn up the 3 year-old championship unless either Exaggerator or Nyquist somehow pull off a huge upset and win the BC Classic. Three G1 wins in total with two of those being in the four classic races. None of the others can match that. Pretty outstanding for a horse that, besides Blunt and I, nobody thought was worth a damn going into the Arkansas Derby.

 

[Sharkey]

No rain in the forecast for the Travers tomorrow and that means the favourite, Exaggerator, will have something to prove over a dry track. The last two times he's ran over a dry track he's been beaten decisively. The 3rd in the San Felipe to Danzing Candy and then the dismal 11th in the Belmont as the favourite. There's also a lot of people who say he's just as good on a dry track as he is a wet track. Well, you might want to talk to Exaggerator's trainer about that because he would disagree with you;



"I think congratulations goes to Mother Nature. He obviously moves up on the off track."


Those people who say he's just as good on a dry track as wet all point to his 2nd place finish in the Derby. Those same people must be forgetting about the downpour that happened just before the Derby it seems because while that track was listed as fast it most certainly wasn't a dry track. Fast forward to the 1:30 mark of the following video when you get the angle with the sun shining down on the track and you can see how much moisture is in the track. Does it look like a dry track to you? Obviously not.

 

[Sharkey]

Not that Exaggerator isn't capable on running a good race tomorrow and possibly even winning it. He's a classy animal and has proven that multiple times out there on the track. The shape of the race also looks like it'll favour a horse of his style as well. But 3/1 or less on a horse that has so obviously proven himself more capable on a wet track than a dry one? Yeah, that's a pass, thanks. His high BSF in a route race over a dry track is a 96. Most of the horses in the field exceed that with the same conditions.

 

[Sharkey]

Governor Malibu is getting a lot of support out there it seems, including being the selection of two of the best public handicappers in the business; Andy Serling of NYRA and Ellis Star of Equibase. TimeformUS also made him their top selection. Governor Malibu is actually sitting as the favourite in the pools so far very early in the betting.

Creator is getting some support as well; Mike Watchmaker of DRF, Nick Tammaro of Saratoga Bets, Cowboy Cox of 'Horseplayers' fame are amongst those picking him.

Besides Steve Haskin of Bloodhorse, I haven't seen much support for Destin out there, although he'll get his share of backing come post time.

 

[Sharkey]

The longtime handicapper for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Rich Eng, is also picking Creator;

http://www.reviewjournal.com/opinio...vers-might-be-too-close-call-let-s-go-creator

 

[Hodge23]

Tailing the plays on the Travers - as others have said, great stuff Sharkey

Also had some other bets on the card:

2U Cavorting @ 2/1
2U Carina Mia @ 7/2
1U Mohaymen @ 7/1
1U Marking @ 4/1

Then for the Travers:

2.5U E/W Governor Malibu @ 14/1
2.5U E/W Creator @ 12/1
0.5U (Free Bet) Laoban @ 20/1

Plus $30 on the Exacta you're all playing

I am considering going bigger on Governor Malibu, might go 5U E/W (Max Bet) if the night is going well, really fancy him here - at least to show. I like that he's consistent whereas quite a few of the others can throw in the odd stinker and finish out the back, he always seems to be there or there abouts come the finishing post.

Good luck everyone, especially with the Exacta !

 

[Sharkey]

Nice job hitting with Cavorting, Hodge. I missed the race, but it sounds like she just got there at the end. Congrats. Also, word is that Marking has scratched out of the Forego. Just a heads up if you want to confirm that for yourself and maybe find an alternative if so.

 

[Sharkey]

If Economic Model can somehow overcome the post and take this King's Bishop at his current 9/1 odds I'm literally going to punch myself in the mouth.