Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I ended up passing on this race in the end due to the odds. But holy crap is Songbird ever good. Save for the older male division, I have no clue what horses out there would be favoured to beat her;

 

[Sharkey]

Chrome wins the Pacific Classic with ease. Hoppertunity could only manage 4th behind Beholder (2nd) and Dortmund (3rd). Shitty.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

Typically 4F workout from a horse that's trained by Asmussen before a big race. He does the more serious workouts for his horses prior to the week of the race unless he feels they need it. Just a maintenance workout for Creator to keep his conditioning up.

 

[t6p]

Virtually broke even on those plays yesterday Shark, thanks again. I got too wrapped up in UFC 202 and I didn't even see the races until this morning. Looking forward to the Travers bigtime now....

 

[Sharkey]

http://www.thtbloodstock.com/THT Derby Report 2016.pdf

Just wanted to post this little thing here. It has to do with the herd dynamics of some of the potential Travers runners and the work here is done by the guys who are by far the best in the business at what they do. Some of it's going to be a little outdated since all this was compiled before the Derby, but also some of it can still apply for the Travers race too and give a hint in regards to what goes on in the minds of these horses when competing.

 

[Sharkey]

Mohaymen will be passing on the Travers and will instead be running in the King's Bishop on the same day instead. Which kinda sucks since, like he always does, he would have been taking a lot of money from backers in the Travers. Bright side is that he'll be taking that money in the King's Bishop now.

 

[Sharkey]

I basically posted that herd dynamic report because of how well My Man Sam profiled in it according to the experts. I'm looking for a 3rd horse to play besides Governor Malibu and Creator, and maybe this is the guy at the price he'll be if they decide to enter him. AP Indy-Mr Prospector cross. Trained by Chad Brown. Final prep race at the Saratoga track. Good races previously at Aqueduct. I liked him earlier this year and backed him in the Blue Grass. Did I mention he was trained by Chad Brown?

 

[Sharkey]

The wife and son are out of the house for the evening, so fuck it. Might as well start throwing some Travers stuff at the wall and see what sticks and what doesn't. Might as well start with what the Travers winners of the recent past had done previous to winning the Travers. We'll see if their final prep race was at Saratoga or had a history at Saratoga/Aqueduct previous to that;


2015: Keen Ice - Prepped at Monmouth by running in the Haskell, but did have a good race at the Aqueduct track previous to that when he finished 3rd in the Remsen. He was of course a pure stayer/stamina horse as well with having always showed finish to his races regardless of his finishing position.

2014: V.E. Day - Prepped for the Travers by running over the Saratoga track in the Curlin a month before. he was another pure stamina horse who's best races after the Travers came at 12F and 13F.

2013: Will Take Charge - Prepped for the Travers by running in the Jim Dandy where he finished 2nd. Showed 10F ability by finishing 2nd in both the Breeders Cup Classic and the Big Cap after winning the Travers.

2012: Alpha - Won the Jim Dandy at Saratoga before going on to win the Travers in a dead heat with Golden Ticket. Alpha had raced 5 times on either Saratoga or Aqueduct before the Travers winning 4 of those 5 races and finishing 2nd in the other one. Golden Ticket didn't run at either Saratoga or Aqueduct previously, nor was he much of a stamina horse before or after having only won a G3 at 10F besides the Travers.

2011: Stay Thirsty - Won the Jim Dandy before going on to win the Travers. Had won on both the Saratoga and Aqueduct tracks before that as well. Also showed long distance ability in multiple other races as well, including a close 2nd in the Belmont earlier in the year.

2010: Afleet Express - Won the Travers after finishing 3rd in the Jim Dandy. Broke his maiden by winning at Aqueduct early in his career.

2009: Summer Bird - Entered the Travers after finishing 2nd to Queen Rachel in the Haskell. Proven long distance runner having won G1 races at 10F or more like the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

2008: Colonel John - Prepped at the now closed Hollywood Park and had no previous experience at either Saratoga or Aqueduct. besides the Travers, had little success at 10F.

2007: Street Sense - Won the Jim Dandy before winning the Travers. Won the Derby that year as well, and finished 2nd in Preakness. Was a member of the strongest 3 year-old crop we've seen in some time and more than held his own in distance races.

2006: Bernardini - Won the Jim Dandy then won the Travers. Had previously won on the Aqueduct track by taking the Withers. Won the Preakness, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and finished 2nd in the Classic, so very proven at distances.

2005: Flower Alley - Won the Jim Dandy. Won the Travers. Finished 2nd in the Classic, but besides that and the Travers had little success in his other tries at distances.

2004: Birdstone - Won the Travers after taking a break after having won the Belmont. Had won on the Saratoga track early in his career. And he won the Belmont, so yeah. He could run a distance.


There. 12 years back. By my count, I think 8 of the past 12 winners came out of a prep over the Saratoga track the month previous to that whether that be the Jim Dandy or the Curlin in the case of V.E. Day. Two others, Birdstone and Keen Ice, had previous good form over either the Saratoga or Aqueduct tracks, and were proven long distance runners. Summer Bird was also a proven long distance runner, who had never ran at either Saratoga or Aqueduct.

Not sure if this helps any, but maybe those who fit some of these this year can be given a check mark in their favour?

To maybe help out in trying to hit an exacta or trifecta, I just finished expanded on this stuff from above here to include the top 3 finishers from the Travers over the past 12 years, where they had their final prep, and if they had any previous experience over either the Saratoga or Aqueduct tracks;

- 19 of 35 top three finishers in Travers had ran their previous race in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga.

- 24 of 35 top three finishers in the Travers had ran their final prep over the Saratoga track, whether that be the Jim Dandy or a lesser stakes/allowance race hosted there.

- 30 of 35 top three finishers in the Travers had ran either the Saratoga or Aqueduct track previous to running in the Travers.

I couldn't find any pre-Travers race record of one of the board hitters from 2007, so that's why there's only 35 instead of 36. But my guess is that the horse didn't fit any of the above, so it could be 19 of 36, 24 of 36, and 30 of 36.

 

[Sharkey]

We'll figure out how some of this stuff relates to this year's Travers field once the field is drawn in a few days, but I'll probably be relying on this stuff myself to go along with customary handicapping angles/techniques as well.

 

[Sharkey]

If all three enter it looks like Creator, Governor Malibu, and My Man Sam will be the only ones who have both that AP Indy-Mr Prospector cross and had ran their final prep over the Saratoga track. I believe that's the only three anyways.

 

[Sharkey]

That tweet showing the current Saratoga standings doesn't seem to be showing up at times for some reason. At least for me it doesn't anyways. But it has Chad Brown leading the trainer standings with 29 wins during the Saratoga meet so far, with Pletcher in a distant 2nd place at 19 wins.

 

[Sharkey]

“He went over the racetrack really well, and was moving well,” Asmussen said. “We did move up his work a day because of the strong possibility of rain, which will give him an extra day – and having him a touch sharper is probably a good thing for him.”

“I do feel that Creator has been considerably sharper since the Jim Dandy than he was before it, which we obviously needed to be,” Asmussen said. “The good news was that [the Jim Dandy] wasn't Creator's major target, but we were expecting it to be better."

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...-final-work-moved-will-touch-sharper-travers/


Just a couple of comments from Steve Asmussen regarding Creator and his workout from early this morning.

 

[Sharkey]

I have no room to complain about ripping up a ticket ever again. Can you imagine playing this horse to win at 7/1 and then having this happen (1:00 mark)?

 

[t6p]

I have no room to complain about ripping up a ticket ever again. Can you imagine playing this horse to win at 7/1 and then having this happen (1:00 mark)?

Wow, I would lose my shit.

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, I would lose my shit.

I think all of us would, T. That's the bad beat of bad beats. The jockey looked like he spooked the horse when he dropped his right hand down an instant before she threw him. May have been trying to show her the whip. Not sure why he was doing that so close to the line.

 

[Sharkey]

I've had this feeling for the last few days now that this year's Travers is going to be a repeat of the 2010 running of the race when the 3rd and 5th place finishers of the Jim Dandy, who were both off the pace types, came back to run one-two in the Travers with the finish being decided by a nose.

So that begs the question. We know that the following two horses are going to run one-two in this year's race and produce a 40/1 or 50/1 exacta payout, but who's nose hits the wire first?



Or...

 

[Sharkey]

Oh shit. Never noticed it the first time I watched it, but in that 2nd video which is focusing on Creator, that is in fact Governor Malibu walking behind him at the beginning of the video. Sign of what's to come this Saturday?

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Well fuck it I'm sold. My two favorite horses going 1 and 2? I'm in. Exacta box here we come!

 

[Sharkey]

Well fuck it I'm sold. My two favorite horses going 1 and 2? I'm in. Exacta box here we come!

Hell yeah. An exacta box it will be for me too. And win bets. Don't forget those, Blunt. Odds should be plenty good enough on both the way the field is shaping up. Thinking 8/1 or 10/1 range for each. These two tick all the boxes, plus are the two best stamina horses in the field as well, which is going to be a big factor at this 10F distance and on this track. And the shape of the race should fit both of them really well too considering there should be at least a few early speed types that enter the gates (Laoban, American Freedom, Gift Box, Connect, etc). To me, all signs are pointing towards these two. Oh, and Creator got dem dapples! Not just dapples, but dapples upon his dapples.

The Travers draw is tomorrow by the way. We'll be able to see if there's a good 3rd option for the trifecta at that point. Hoping they do decide to enter My Man Sam. If he does manage to come in 3rd behind those other two or splits them by coming in 2nd then I'm fucking done. That's retirement money right there. Well, not quite. But I'm pretty sure that would be close to say a 2000/1 shot. Maybe even more. Yeeesh.