Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I just did some stats going back to the beginning of February, although I could've gone back even further and it would still illustrate the point I'm sure. Basically ever since the track thawed out from that freezing it had at the beginning of the year I've been noticing that outside horses have been doing exceptionally well there.

Just how well? Well, since the beginning of Feb the track has featured 28 one turn sprint races and horses that have drew into one of the three outer most posts have won 21 of those races. 232 horses in total competed in those 28 one turn races, which means 84 of them in total drew one of the three outer most posts. 75% of the winners came from there despite only making up 36% of the fields. In total those 84 horses who drew outside posts have a combined 21-20-15 record. The other 148 horses who didn`t draw an outer post have only a 7-8-13 record. 14 of the 28 exactas in those races came from horses who drew one of the three outer most posts, and 5 of 28 trifectas.

They haven`t been updated yet for today`s races, but Brisnet has outside posts (8+) having an impact value of 2.41 for 5.5F races since the beginning of Feb at Mahoning Valley, whereas for 6F races the impact value is 2.70. With the average impact value being 1.00, basically they`re saying that horses have been winning from out there 2.5 times as often as they should in those one turn sprint races.

This post here along with the post with all the numbers in it should make it pretty obvious what horses I'll be looking to play today at Mahoning Valley.

 

[Sharkey]

Feel like gambling a bit more today I think, although it may change. But this be what I'm thinking as of now;


Race 3 - #8 Athletic Temper to win and place for $5/$10

Race 5 - #10 Kat's Good Scout to win and place for $4/$10, and the a $1 trifecta box with the #1A, #7, and #10 since, with the scratch of the #9, those three will be breaking from the outside four posts, and with the scratch of the #1 are also now top 3 on the numbers

Race 6 - #7 Last Prospect to win, place and show for $2/$4/$6, and then both a $2 exacta box and a $1 trifecta box with the #1A, #6, and #7 since, once again they're top 3 on the numbers and have all drawn one of the four outer most posts

Race 8 - #9 Stephanie's Faith to win and place for $5/$10


Yeah. I think I like that idea.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 2 here is a one turn sprint race that I don't have the PP's for (and it's a maiden even if I did), so I can't bet it. But the Brisnet power plays program picks the #7 in 1st and the #8 in 3rd, and they're currently sitting at 7/1 and 5/1 respectively.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 2 here is a one turn sprint race that I don't have the PP's for (and it's a maiden even if I did), so I can't bet it. But the Brisnet power plays program picks the #7 in 1st and the #8 in 3rd, and they're currently sitting at 7/1 and 5/1 respectively.

They finished 2nd and 3rd to the heavy 1/2 favourite.

 

[t6p]

Tailing @Sharkey on the #8 here, to win/place. Only 2/1 now though.

 

[Sharkey]

Sorry, but I can't take 3/2 on the #8 horse here. Pass.

 

[Sharkey]

Tailing @Sharkey on the #8 here, to win/place. Only 2/1 now though.

I gotta pass on that one, T. Best of luck if you're still on him.

 

[Sharkey]

Tailing @Sharkey on the #8 here, to win/place. Only 2/1 now though.

You got nipped at the wire there by the #6 horse, T. You probably don't lose anything if you went heavier on the place, though.

 

[t6p]

I gotta pass on that one, T. Best of luck if you're still on him.

Wow, I got beat at the wire there. The #8 also dropped all the way to 6/5. I'll get some of my money back at least.

Between trying to multitask at work and 5dimes often not accepting last minute bets, I probably should lay off. But, I won't haha. I wouldn't normally have bet that horse at those odds, but no harm done.

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, I got beat at the wire there. The #8 also dropped all the way to 6/5. I'll get some of my money back at least.

Between trying to multitask at work and 5dimes often not accepting last minute bets, I probably should lay off. But, I won't haha. I wouldn't normally have bet that horse at those odds, but no harm done.

Bright side is that it was another outside horse that beat him. Couple that with that maiden sprint race that took place before that where the trifecta was made up of horses from the four outside posts once again, and we'll have plenty of opportunities to crush. Starting today. Outside all day, every day at this track until it shows us otherwise.

 

[t6p]

You got nipped at the wire there by the #6 horse, T. You probably don't lose anything if you went heavier on the place, though.

Yep, actually a tiny profit there. I'll take it!

 

[Sharkey]

Somebody out there must have confidence in Chaotic Bull here in race 5. Was 10/1 on the morning line, which included his coupled stablemate. Is currently sitting at 2/1 in the early wagering with his entry being scratched.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 5 - #10 Kat's Good Scout to win and place for $4/$10, and the a $1 trifecta box with the #1A, #7, and #10 since, with the scratch of the #9, those three will be breaking from the outside four posts, and with the scratch of the #1 are also now top 3 on the numbers

I may box up the #7 and #10 in the exacta here too for $5 since I passed on the first race. Or play the straight #7 - #10 exacta for $5 since I'm going to have the #10 well covered anyways. One of those two, though, for sure just depending on what the exacta payouts are as we near post time.

 

[Sharkey]

The #7 Celestrial Image is also very tempting if he stays near his current 9/2, which I don't think he will. I'd expect somebody out there to hammer him hard before the race gets underway.

 

[Sharkey]

Shit, the #8 horse was ranked 5th when I did the numbers, and now with the scratch he moves up to 4th ranked. Might be a better option that Chaotic Bull now for the trifecta box since that one was bet down so much. Jesus, so many options here.

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, 7 of the 9 horses in this race here are between 4/1 and 6/1. Love it.

 

[Sharkey]

I took the #7 to win, #10 to place, and then boxed those two with the 1A in exactas and trifectas.

 

[Sharkey]

Shit, the #8 horse was ranked 5th when I did the numbers, and now with the scratch he moves up to 4th ranked. Might be a better option that Chaotic Bull now for the trifecta box since that one was bet down so much. Jesus, so many options here.

Dummy

 

[Sharkey]

#7 wins, #8 finishes 2nd, #10 finishes 3rd.

Outside once again.

 

[t6p]

Dummy

Hey, the numbers were good though Shark. At least the #7 came in for you. I couldn't decide on a win/place so I just went with the exacta/tri boxes 7,10,1A haha.