Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Thanks, Shark. Yea I thought I was going to get that horse home in race 6. Ah well. At this point I’m keeping my plays small, mainly trying to learn how find “value” based on the numbers and figure out what works and what doesn’t.

I hear ya bud. Sometimes we all have to focus on real life, unfortunately.

If you have any ideas what could be tweaked or what could be added then by all means, T. This system is obviously still a work in progress since it's so new (couple of weeks old), and still has room for additions. @BluntTrauma21 mentioned a couple of things in private that we were able to work into the equation, so please do the same if you have ideas we can add or tweak.

 

[t6p]

If you have any ideas what could be tweaked or what could be added then by all means, T. This system is obviously still a work in progress since it's so new (couple of weeks old), and still has room for additions. @BluntTrauma21 mentioned a couple of things in private that we were able to work into the equation, so please do the same if you have ideas we can add or tweak.

Will do Shark. I’m still a ways away from fully understanding everything, but if I have any ideas I’ll let you know.

I may actually have one question for you, so I may PM you tomorrow or later tonight.

 

[Sharkey]

Will do Shark. I’m still a ways away from fully understanding everything, but if I have any ideas I’ll let you know.

I may actually have one question for you, so I may PM you tomorrow or later tonight.

I messed up on a couple of those turf races on Saturday myself by subtracting early speed when the track bias stats really said I should have been adding them. Live and learn as they say. I have to start making sure that those track stats are the first thing I look at.

 

[t6p]

Was feeling ambitious this morning so I ran the numbers on a bunch of races at Mahoning Valley for today:

Race 1
#3 Hummed 398.95 (7/2)
#1 Chaotic Bull 397.85 (2/1)
#2 Wildwood Heir 385.95 (4/1)

Race 2
#8 Mini Bird 378.25 (20/1)
#1 Lunar Heat 377.95 (3/1)
#2 Decadent Doc 373.75 (2/1)
#7 Jumpin Jack Cash 368.15 (8/1)

Race 4
#8 Princess Brooke 380.4 (4/1)
#1A Tia Gego 371.5 (8/5)
#4 Hopes Angel 363.7 (6/1)

Race 5
#4 Big Legacy 414.7 (3/1)
#3 Major Drama 408.8 (9/2)
#10 Western Tryst 398.35 (8/1)
#8 Love Your Humor 397.75 (6/1)

Race 7
#7 Heavens Jewel 386.2 (4/1)
#3 Easy Way Out 371.75 (9/2)
#12 Grand Edge 366.95 (5/1)

Race 8
#10 Anthem 411.8 (4/1)
#1 Even Echo 411.35 (6/1)
#8 Kid Twist 406.4 (5/1)
#7 Father Dennis 403.05 (3/1)

 

[t6p]

Race 1 - taking a shot with #2 Wildwood Heir to win/place since odds have shortened on the #1 and #3

 

[t6p]

Race 1 - taking a shot with #2 Wildwood Heir to win/place since odds have shortened on the #1 and #3

He didn't come out of the gate well, tried to make a late push, but didn't have enough in the tank. Finished 1-3-4-2. Still, considering the numbers on the #4 put him just behind Wildwood Heir, I'd say that the formula is working nicely.

 

[t6p]

Race 2 - playing #8 Mini Bird to w/p/s and a little exacta box with #8 Mini Bird, #1 Lunar Heat

 

[t6p]

Race 2 - playing #8 Mini Bird to w/p/s and a little exacta box with #8 Mini Bird, #1 Lunar Heat

Lunar Heat goes wire to wire and crushes the field. Hmm, maybe I'm getting too cute with these plays.

 

[t6p]

Race 4 - #8, #1 exacta box

 

[t6p]

Race 4 - #8, #1 exacta box

Boom, that's more like it. Only pays about 14/1, but I'll take it. Also, the formula predicted the trifecta in order 8/1/4.

 

[t6p]

Race 5 - #3 Major Drama to win/place and an exacta box #3 Major Drama, #4 Big Legacy

 

[t6p]

Race 5 - #3 Major Drama to win/place and an exacta box #3 Major Drama, #4 Big Legacy

No good, but again 3 of our top 4 horses finish in the top 4.

 

[Sharkey]

The top 3 on the numbers (with those additions added to the equation, so the number will be quite a bit higher than what you guys are accustomed to) for the three Derby prep races for tomorrow.


G2 Holy Bull (Gulfstream Race 12);

#1 Enticed (3/1) - 489.5
#4 Audible (6/1) - 484.5
#8 Pony Up (8/1) - 482.1
----------

G3 Robert B Lewis (Santa Anita Race 5);

#5 Shivermetimbers (7/2) - 497.6
#7 Peace (3/1) - 483.8
#4 Lombo (5/1) - 472.2
----------

G3 Withers (Aqueduct Race 8);

#1 Firenze Fire (9/5) - 498.2
#3 Bal Harbour (6/1) - 493.0
#2 Marconi (3/1) - 486.8
----------

 

[Sharkey]

Might as well try one more stakes race today.


G2 San Pasquel (Santa Anita Race 8);

#2 Mubtaahij (7/2) - 526.3
#1 Pavel (4/1) - 517.2
#3 Accelerate (4/1) - 515.6
----------

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like it's going to be Bal Harbour to win/place in the Withers for me if they're going to let him go off at 7/1.

 

[t6p]

Looks like it's going to be Bal Harbour to win/place in the Withers for me if they're going to let him go off at 7/1.

I'm in. GL bud!

 

[Sharkey]

Shivermetimbers for me to win/place in the Bob Lewis. Top horse on the numbers by quite a bit and isn't the favourite.

 

[Sharkey]

Pony Up for me here in the Holy Bull.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

just won the 2nd leg of my pick 3 at tampa i need the 5 or the 8 for race 3 and I win. Im also on my 2nd race at mahoning i need the 9,4 or 3 to still be alive

 

[Sharkey]

just won the 2nd leg of my pick 3 at tampa i need the 5 or the 8 for race 3 and I win. Im also on my 2nd race at mahoning i need the 9,4 or 3 to still be alive

How did you make out?