- Joined
- Jan 20, 2013
- Messages
- 29,526
- Reaction score
- 52,855
I like to analyze fights and I have had a hard time up until recently trying to envision a path 35 year old Jon realistically would have to victory over a younger, much more agile, naturally larger opponent in his prime.
I also doubt that Jon would take a fight where he himself did not see a clear path to victory. His ego is too big and his attachment to his legacy is too important to him. This is not to say Jon will not lose. I fully belive Jon could do everything right and still lose tonight, but upon watching some videos I think I have identified what Jon believes could be his path to victory.
TLDR: Film study
In the 1st video below, I saw the first clue of how Jon could possibly win this fight. At the 1min mark he talks about Cyril having tells and patterns. Even in the small amount of film I have watched on Cyril this week, I have noticed them so I can only imagine how an experienced fighter or team could identify these tells and prepare for then.
(More on this below)
Go to 15:00
(How do I timestamp?
Is it T=15m00s at the end?)
In the Tuivasa fight, the Derrick Lewis fight and the Volkov fight, you see Gane using the same tell.
He looks down, then throws a power strike high. Usually from southpaw position.
So how can Jon use this information?
Right off the bat, it is easy to identify because Gane uses it in a specific range and scenario. It is usually a secondary attack and done AFTER he has executed his initial attack to close distance. He seems to do it more in southpaw stance and there.is even a consistent cadence to the timing. Initial entry move, beat, reset feet, look down, attack high with POWER.
the POWER means extra time and the whole sequence means you can have the timing ready, like striking Bald Bull after his 3rd bounce, there is a specific window of opportunity.
Jon could:
evade
block
counter
wrestle <---
Jon is not fast enough to counter on the strike, which Prime Conor McGregor did masterfully vs Aldo and Alvarez.
Block and Evade are options, and could be useful the first time or of Jon wants to play it safe.
but the gamechanger is to use this to take Gane down. That is were Jon has a sìgnificant advantage, if he can get it to the ground, which wont be easy, but would be worthwhile if he can pull it off.
i think most would agree that a pure kickboxing match heavily favors Gane.
so Jon needs to:
get Gane down
Use clinch/wrestling to get Gane tired
Use clinch/wrestling to create striking openings and make Gane hesitant.
------------------------------
Remember Jon has said he doesn't take short notice fights. Why? Because he needs to complete his film study and confidently know his opponents tendencies and have a gameplan for how to capitalize on these tendencies.
Remember that Jon Jones had identified the DC was susceptible to the left high kick from southpaw stance years before he used that technique to finish the fight and they even talked about it in a press conference before their first fight?
That was from film study and even with DC KNOWING to expect it, Jon still executed a plan to make that work and capitalize on that tendency.
-----------------------------
Jon's opponents all say "it is a different ballgame being in there with him"
They all think they know what to expect based on film of Jon fighting other people and get caught off guard with what Jon (and likely previously someone at Jackson Wink) where able to identify and prepare specifically to use against them.
------------
I did not do an in depth film study on Jon or Cyril Gane. But just from what I saw in breakdown videos and listening to the fighters talk, I see patterns in Cyrils game which Jon openly stated he has identified.
He uses certain strikes at certain ranges depending on his stance. He uses the same footwork patterns to change angles or adjust for inside foot position.
I did not see how Jon could beat Gane in a fair fight, and he still may lose and he is not necessarily going to fight a fair fight, but I now am open to Jon having a legit path to victory by knowing and predicting Ganes actions to a reasonably high degree of certainty based on past tendencies.
-----------
It is still a big mountain to climb.
Ganes footwork is a real problem for Jon's primary tendencies to use range finding tactics to execute strikes from distance. Jon may need to compromise Ganes legs or his cardio to have success.
Gane could be playing chess too and may be expecting these things and be prepared. I fully expect his team knows the gravity of this bout.
That's my $0.02 fellas and sher ladies.
Thanks for stopping by.
May the best man win in violent, conclusive, highlight reel fashion.
I also doubt that Jon would take a fight where he himself did not see a clear path to victory. His ego is too big and his attachment to his legacy is too important to him. This is not to say Jon will not lose. I fully belive Jon could do everything right and still lose tonight, but upon watching some videos I think I have identified what Jon believes could be his path to victory.
TLDR: Film study
In the 1st video below, I saw the first clue of how Jon could possibly win this fight. At the 1min mark he talks about Cyril having tells and patterns. Even in the small amount of film I have watched on Cyril this week, I have noticed them so I can only imagine how an experienced fighter or team could identify these tells and prepare for then.
Go to 15:00
(How do I timestamp?
Is it T=15m00s at the end?)
In the Tuivasa fight, the Derrick Lewis fight and the Volkov fight, you see Gane using the same tell.
He looks down, then throws a power strike high. Usually from southpaw position.
So how can Jon use this information?
Right off the bat, it is easy to identify because Gane uses it in a specific range and scenario. It is usually a secondary attack and done AFTER he has executed his initial attack to close distance. He seems to do it more in southpaw stance and there.is even a consistent cadence to the timing. Initial entry move, beat, reset feet, look down, attack high with POWER.
the POWER means extra time and the whole sequence means you can have the timing ready, like striking Bald Bull after his 3rd bounce, there is a specific window of opportunity.
Jon could:
evade
block
counter
wrestle <---
Jon is not fast enough to counter on the strike, which Prime Conor McGregor did masterfully vs Aldo and Alvarez.
Block and Evade are options, and could be useful the first time or of Jon wants to play it safe.
but the gamechanger is to use this to take Gane down. That is were Jon has a sìgnificant advantage, if he can get it to the ground, which wont be easy, but would be worthwhile if he can pull it off.
i think most would agree that a pure kickboxing match heavily favors Gane.
so Jon needs to:
get Gane down
Use clinch/wrestling to get Gane tired
Use clinch/wrestling to create striking openings and make Gane hesitant.
------------------------------
Remember Jon has said he doesn't take short notice fights. Why? Because he needs to complete his film study and confidently know his opponents tendencies and have a gameplan for how to capitalize on these tendencies.
Remember that Jon Jones had identified the DC was susceptible to the left high kick from southpaw stance years before he used that technique to finish the fight and they even talked about it in a press conference before their first fight?
That was from film study and even with DC KNOWING to expect it, Jon still executed a plan to make that work and capitalize on that tendency.
-----------------------------
Jon's opponents all say "it is a different ballgame being in there with him"
They all think they know what to expect based on film of Jon fighting other people and get caught off guard with what Jon (and likely previously someone at Jackson Wink) where able to identify and prepare specifically to use against them.
------------
I did not do an in depth film study on Jon or Cyril Gane. But just from what I saw in breakdown videos and listening to the fighters talk, I see patterns in Cyrils game which Jon openly stated he has identified.
He uses certain strikes at certain ranges depending on his stance. He uses the same footwork patterns to change angles or adjust for inside foot position.
I did not see how Jon could beat Gane in a fair fight, and he still may lose and he is not necessarily going to fight a fair fight, but I now am open to Jon having a legit path to victory by knowing and predicting Ganes actions to a reasonably high degree of certainty based on past tendencies.
-----------
It is still a big mountain to climb.
Ganes footwork is a real problem for Jon's primary tendencies to use range finding tactics to execute strikes from distance. Jon may need to compromise Ganes legs or his cardio to have success.
Gane could be playing chess too and may be expecting these things and be prepared. I fully expect his team knows the gravity of this bout.
That's my $0.02 fellas and sher ladies.
Thanks for stopping by.
May the best man win in violent, conclusive, highlight reel fashion.
Last edited:
