I think it is safe to say that the last three Jones fights were overall his worst performances in the octagon, against not necessarily the best competition he had. He had an underwhelming if dominant performance against a very passive Smith, a passive and controversial split decision win against a former MW in Santos who had also two knees shot, and another controversial decision win against Reyes, who most think won the decision.
Whether it be wear and tear, age, or not being on the juice, I think it is clear Jones wasn't performing as well or looking nearly as imposing as he had previous years, particularly before his last suspension. One egregious thing is that since the second Gustaffson fight, his wrestling seems to be appearing less and less.
With this in mind, the question is: why do people think he would be successful at HW? Granted, HW is populated by older, and non-well rounded fighters like Tuivasa, Lewis, Gane, or even Ngannou. But they are a lot bigger, and Jones is now older, heavier, and hasn't fought in years. He also will not have the same reach advantage he usually enjoys at LHW, and the two fighters that had long reach at LHW gave him notorious trouble in Gus and Reyes.
Many think his skillset, even factoring rust and deterioration, is enough to compensate in a very weak division like HW. But if Jones was performing like that against Smith three years ago... why would anyone think he will perform well agianst someone like Ngannou?
