Elections John Fetterman is becoming Bernie Sanders 2.0

[Hollywood Jack]

Most conservative voters don’t consider public service if any kind “real” work. “Real” work is an unelected job

Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene are do nothing bitches then.

 

[ocfightfan]

If by Bernie 2.0 you mean he has never held a real job in his life and spouts empty nostrums and pie in the sky bullshit when he was even able to speak then yes.

 

[Archie Goodwin]

Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene are do nothing bitches then.

I’m mad at both of them. They’re acting like we’re not all in a relationship together #wouldsmashboffum

 

[Hollywood Jack]

I’m mad at both of them. They’re acting like we’re not all in a relationship together #wouldsmashboffum

MTG is a swamp donkey. Would bang Boebert HARD, though.

 

[Archie Goodwin]

MTG is a swamp donkey. Would bang Boebert HARD, though.

I’m old and less picky. My last 5-6 were worse than MTG. A good bj is a good bj, if she’s fugly, close your eyes and imagine it’s a hottie

 

[Lead]

you probably will think my sources are biased, right wing blah blah, but for instance, rasmussen shows in Pa republicans have a 48-43 adv.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...round_2022_republicans_lead_in_six_key_states

it is generic ballot, but come on, the ballot in PA is Mastriano and Oz.

First, nothing is wrong with Rasmussen but it should be factored in with other polls. Using the method of just Rasmussen would've led you to believe Romney was going to win 2016. That isn't to say they are garbage but looking at a variety of polls at that time would've showed Rasmussen was one of the few still favoring Romney barely while other polls were leaning Obama.

Generic ballot isn't the same as asking about the specific race. If anything, that's furthering the point Mastriano and/or Oz are underperforming (or their opponents are overperforming) if they aren't keeping up with the generic ballot. So no, don't agree with using that.

But even just look at your own source.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...governor_mastriano_vs_shapiro-7696.html#polls

they are different poll sources, so unreliable to find a trend, but on 9/23, it is +15 vs now being +9, so that alone is a 6 point shift. But then again, i cite my poll that shows republicans crushing it.

The problem here is you are looking at the highest ranking poll going back to show a wide range with the lowest recent poll. That difference might signal a trend but so far the averages aren't bearing that out.

plus just from real clear politics, if you actually look at the numbers, they over polled women and democrats.

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suf...hash=C227D75ECA6A0095B6B09219976B087DD7AF24E0

Here with Emerson, you’ll also note they over polled democrats

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/ECP_PA_9.28.xlsx

Populations are something each pollster has to deal with in determining their results. I wouldn't say you can claim anyone was over polled as the attempt is to map it to what the believed population will be on voting day (in the future). Not saying they are spot on with the population but Im certain they put a lot more thought into what the population should be. That isn't a slight on you. They have more man power, money, etc as they are only operating to try to make sound predictions the best they can.

so based on the pollsters I follow and looking at the cross tabs of others, including the trend you see going shifting from the RCP average, one can see why I would say Mastriano isnsurging. Cause not only are the polling more democrats, but there are still 8-10+ of undecideds in these polls and as time goes on, they are breaking towards GOP

I do not see a credible reason for you to say A.) Mastiano is surging and then B.) Not only is he surging but he's pulling Oz up with him even though they are underperforming the generic ballot.

Add in the record primary numbers for Mastriano, it shows that numbers going towards him, especially considering when the polls are over polling democrats, democrats that are also showing far less enthusiasm than republicans. So those two trends combined is good for Mastriano

Primary turnout historically hasn't shown a correlation with general election results. Not even change in primary turnout has. Something to look at but I don't think it can prove the point you are trying to make.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
At best, there is a track record of presidents having a bad mid-term during their first term. I agree on that but it's a whole other thing to take that fact and just drop it over a specific race like Oz/Fetterman. There's more going on than the national picture and that's especially true in a senate or governors race. Generic ballot is most useful for projections on the House.

 

[Hollywood Jack]

I’m old and less picky. My last 5-6 were worse than MTG. A good bj is a good bj, if she’s fugly, close your eyes and imagine it’s a hottie

Okay, maybe I'd let her blow me. Especially if she was known for giving fire head.

 

[Lead]

polls are used to create a compliance opinion for undecided voters.

they mean absolutely nothing.

how do grown adults with functioning brains still not grasp how this works?

I mean, they could be used for that. I think for many they are to see where a race might be at any point in time. For candidates, that helps them decide what they need to do at certain points of their campaign if they are trailing or leading. For voters, it shouldn't matter all that much but if there are people who look at polls to decide who to vote for, I'd find that pretty bizarre.

They don't mean absolutely nothing. They just aren't used correctly often. For example, people look at these sites like 538 or RCP and see something like 60% candidate A wins and then think Candidate A will win which isn't close to what that means.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Lmfaoooooo

how stupid do these people think Americans are. “Oh, he is healthy and CLEARLY nothing wrong,yet he needs visual and computer assistance to debate”

The report marked the first time the campaign released medical information from someone who has examined Fetterman since June, having maintained since then that he is in good health. It also comes exactly one week before Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee, hold their first and only debate in Harrisburg. Fetterman will use closed captioning for the event, which he has used during interviews since suffering the stroke.



so he is literally going to have visual and audio additive devices helping him on delay, but there is clearly nothing wrong? He obviously has audio, verbal, and visual restrictions, if not full spectrum cognitive problems. Yet they tell you nothing wrong, just like the economy, just like a failing education and criminal systems.

how stupid do these people thing the average person in PA is? Lmaooooooo

 

[Archie Goodwin]

Lmfaoooooo

how stupid do these people think Americans are. “Oh, he is healthy and CLEARLY nothing wrong,yet he needs visual and computer assistance to debate”

The report marked the first time the campaign released medical information from someone who has examined Fetterman since June, having maintained since then that he is in good health. It also comes exactly one week before Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee, hold their first and only debate in Harrisburg. Fetterman will use closed captioning for the event, which he has used during interviews since suffering the stroke.



so he is literally going to have visual and audio additive devices helping him on delay, but there is clearly nothing wrong? He obviously has audio, verbal, and visual restrictions, if not full spectrum cognitive problems. Yet they tell you nothing wrong, just like the economy, just like a failing education and criminal systems.

how stupid do these people thing the average person in PA is? Lmaooooooo

I hope Dr Oz curb-stomps him in the debate

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Biden campaigning with Fetterman today. This clip highlights the event: Biden being confused as it pans out with fetterman’s big head and neck growth being only other thing visible



Also, this also shows the Mastriano surge I mentioned. Big jumps in generic ballots, but now also an 8point swing to him in just a couple weeks.. which indicates independents are breaking for him as the election gets closer

another thing that now might help Mastriano (and other republicans, but especially Gov candidates) is the CDC decision on vaccinations today. A number of angry moms are going to want a governor that will push back on that and ensure their children won’t be required to have those.



edit: and apparently the event ended without fetterman speaking at his own event rally! Lmaooo. Probably because they couldn’t hook up his computer to tell him what is going on and what to say

 

[Lead]

Also, this also shows the Mastriano surge I mentioned. Big jumps in generic ballots, but now also an 8point swing to him in just a couple weeks.. which indicates independents are breaking for him as the election gets closer

I already mentioned it earlier but you are taking the widest margin poll and using it to claim a surge. Most people would look at those polls in June and determine the 15+ likely was an outlier, and Shapiro has maintained about a 8-10 point lead throughout this campaign.

Do you think Mastriano will win? Are you hedging to just say it’s fraud/ rigged if he doesn’t?

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I already mentioned it earlier but you are taking the widest margin poll and using it to claim a surge. Most people would look at those polls in June and determine the 15+ likely was an outlier, and Shapiro has maintained about a 8-10 point lead throughout this campaign.

Do you think Mastriano will win? Are you hedging to just say it’s fraud/ rigged if he doesn’t?

I do think he will win.

 

[Lead]

I do think he will win.

What probability on it and why? The polling having the populations far off enough that even the +8 would be overcome? Or it’s going to narrow more by election?

 

[cottagecheesefan]

What probability on it and why? The polling having the populations far off enough that even the +8 would be overcome? Or it’s going to narrow more by election?

going to narrow as election comes, but I think there are a lot of new voters and/or people who don’t normally come out that they aren’t actively tracking/polling accurately that are going to break for Mastriano, which I think is happening all over the country to be honest.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Hi, ok no, bye!

 

[TrueBias]

This asshole looks like a mix of Keith Jardine and uncle Fester.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Keep in mind, they now projecting no name Dixon in Mi to beat the witchmore of the north.

keep in mind, Tudor Dixon was a former host on real americas voice, the channel that broadcasts bannon and trump rallies.



Starting to look like NY may somehow comeback to Republican control as well. And zeldin is a 1/6er trumper lol.





Nevada falling as well??? Even Minnesota???

 

[Eusung]

Keep in mind, they now projecting no name Dixon in Mi to beat the witchmore of the north.

keep in mind, Tudor Dixon was a former host on real americas voice, the channel that broadcasts bannon and trump rallies.



Starting to look like NY may somehow comeback to Republican control as well. And zeldin is a 1/6er trumper lol.





Nevada falling as well??? Even Minnesota???

I'm trying to remember if around this time last year Youngkin was still considered the underdog. I remember people on this forum thinking he wasn't gonna win until the last couple weeks before November.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I'm trying to remember if around this time last year Youngkin was still considered the underdog. I remember people on this forum thinking he wasn't gonna win until the last couple weeks before November.

He was or at least even until the week of if I remember correctly. Even made a thread about the red wave there after also making the thread about fbi looking into parents there lol

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/va-turns-red-completely-red.4212002/#post-166520598