The U.S. will enter into this war by this weekend, at the latest. Too much going on that I see no strategic purpose for, unless we are about to start shooting. So allow me, while high, to use my whopping 5-years of active duty to pontificate on said subject:
-On Saturday we silently move about half of our whole mid-air refueling squadrons to Europe. The news picks up on it a day or two later.
US bolsters Trump's Middle East military options by moving refueling aircraft, officials say
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...-refueling-aircraft-officials-say-2025-06-16/
-Now our intelligence agencies are telling overseas commanders to prepare for potential strikes from Iran against US bases in the region. The push this to the press today.
Iran Is Preparing Missiles for Possible Retaliatory Strikes on U.S. Bases, Officials Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/iran-israel-us-bases.html
This makes no strategic sense, if you're Iran. Their air defense assets are straight gone. Israel controls the skies. The last Iranian missile batteries are going silent. Probably being taken out. Iran is barely holding on. The only real option, and it's a shitty one, is to throw all the ordinance at Israel proper and try to inflict enough civilian casualties that Israel will come to the table. That won't work. Bibi has his mandate and he's not stopping. The only other option would be to come begging to the international community to step in. But with the US backing Israel here, that won't get anywhere.
But why fire at US bases? That guarantees America entering. No way and egomaniac like trump backs down, nor, should he. Unless the Iranians think he'll blink like he did after the retaliation for Soleimani. But that was never meant to grow in scope for the Trump administration.
This had to have been planned, with full US support, for at least a few weeks (on our end, about 3-4 years for the Israeli's). We know we redirected weapons meant for Ukraine to Israel, last month. And Trump has all but said that he knew in advance. Yet we still played the Iranians along with our nuclear talks. Knowing, at least for the past month we've been talking to them, that Israel was gonna hit those sites.
So the deal then? Israel has to take on the biggest risk by knocking out all their air defense assets and weapons sites. Also makes since, as Israel has runways a whole lot closer to Iran. If they pull that off, we'll use our high-altitude bombers to take out the sites the Israeli's lacked the ordinance for. Bibi gets his war, and lets Trump do a victory dance and claim as much credit as he wants for "winning."
TL/DR:
US enters into the war by this weekend, or I transition.