This fight is all about the gameplan for Costa, if he uses feints and attacks the body he will win. If he allows the fight to go into the championship rounds with a relatively fresh Adesanya he might drop a decision.
At the end of the day, I don't think Isreal has the arsenal to keep Costa off of him for any extended period of time early on. He will throw leg kicks and a few jabs, but most of that will fade when the pressure mounts. Adesanya's willingness to plant his feet and throw leather will likely be his undoing, he won't go down without a fight......but he'll go down. Once he goes down, will he have the guard to survive or threaten submissions? We will see....
Costa wins at boxing range, clinch range, and likely on the ground.
Adesanya only wins at kickboxing range, and he's never Ko'd a UFC fighter with a headkick or anything. So unless he's got something we've never seen before, he's gonna have to outpoint Costa over 5 rounds.
I think Costa wins this fight, even if Adesanya holds his own over 5 rounds, optically it's gonna be bad. He will have to retreat constantly and there's no way he doesn't end up on his back at some point from the sheer pressure and strength of Costa.
