International Isis/syria/iraq thread

[Orgasmo]

- Uncle Sam won't establish a no fly zone for Al-Qaeda & friends, aka "moderate" rebels", no matter how much whougonnacall is foaming at the mouth for it.

- Aleppo will eventually fall to the regime in the next few months, either through brute force or negotiated rebel exit.

- Syrian civil war will continue for years, as there is no political party or figure that can unite the country.

- Assad's survival is assured, but he doesn't have enough support to retake the country.

- ISIS will collapse within the year, but will transform itself into an insurgency after losing most of its territory.

- Syrian civil war isn't so civil, both in terms of brutality and foreign actors. There are thousands of foreign fighters participating, supported by foreign powers.

 

[whougonnacall]

1) You mean when the Turks declared themselves friends of Russia after Russia bombed the Turkmen into oblivion and started giving MANPADS to Kurds who took down a Cobra with?

2) You said it yourself the iraq war made Americans war weary.

3) Thats not the endgame, not if Turkey, Russia and the Kurds manage to get a deal.

4) Fucking up how? by not holding their hands into having a functional society? Do you think that Sisi, Sauds, Hashemites, and other brutal autocrats must be sacked too?

5) Again, absolutely no guarantee, but like a good sly arab, you gotta say trust us, we wont stab you in the back right? the Russians would rather deal with the devil they know.

6) Thats one assertion that nobody wants to test the waters with.

1) thats the same turkmen still blowing up regime and possibly russian sf in the mountains? They made friends as neither side wanted war and they both had things they wanted from each other ......neither side has any good reasom to escalate but plenty to co operate on.

2)it has but that assumes any escalation leads to war

3) they prob have cut seperate deals doesnt alter whats gonna happen though either a deal with enforcement protocols or inevitable regime collapse down the road

4) feel free to read away how the peace was thrown away
I wouldnt lose any sleep over those guys being overthrown no

5)your leader vlad actualy wanted to deal with elements of the rebels himself so yeah

6) wel see
As iv said its one of many options
The famous 'no bomb' option on youtube actualy works much better

 

[whougonnacall]

How concerning is the whole thing?

The situation for civilians ? Very
Prospect of ww3? Almost nil..

 

[Rod1]

1) thats the same turkmen still blowing up regime and possibly russian sf in the mountains? They made friends as neither side wanted war and they both had things they wanted from each other ......neither side has any good reasom to escalate but plenty to co operate on.

2)it has but that assumes any escalation leads to war

3) they prob have cut seperate deals doesnt alter whats gonna happen though either a deal with enforcement protocols or inevitable regime collapse down the road

4) feel free to read away how the peace was thrown away
I wouldnt lose any sleep over those guys being overthrown no

5)your leader vlad actualy wanted to deal with elements of the rebels himself so yeah

6) wel see
As iv said its one of many options
The famous 'no bomb' option on youtube actualy works much better

1) Yes, the same Turkmen that had to flee to Turkey with their families after Russians started carpet bombing them. Russia trespassed into Turkey thats why it didnt escalated. And Russia didnt crossed their arms, they started supplying weapons to the PKK, bombing any turkish truck they could spot and indiscriminately bombing Turkmen villages.

And they deployed SAMs into the area, so Russians never stopped flying whatsoever, Turkey surrendered to the Russian aggression.

2) Russians know American are war-weary thats why they wont stop with their antics.

3) I dont think Assad regime will last, but he will step down under his own terms.

4) They threw peace even after having their supposed oppresor taken down. So the argument that they wanted freedom and democracy was a sham, they just want their own brand of oppression to be the dominant force. Also lol at claiming poor civilians, and yet claiming that you wouldnt give a fuck if more countries descended into civil wars.

5) Some elements as you said, so, the elements that could ensure a similar deal that he had with Assad, which means basically changing one autocrat for another autocrat.

6) We will see, but dont get your hopes high.

 

[whougonnacall]

1) Yes, the same Turkmen that had to flee to Turkey with their families after Russians started carpet bombing them. Russia trespassed into Turkey thats why it didnt escalated. And Russia didnt crossed their arms, they started supplying weapons to the PKK, bombing any turkish truck they could spot and indiscriminately bombing Turkmen villages.

And they deployed SAMs into the area, so Russians never stopped flying whatsoever, Turkey surrendered to the Russian aggression.

2) Russians know American are war-weary thats why they wont stop with their antics.

3) I dont think Assad regime will last, but he will step down under his own terms.

4) They threw peace even after having their supposed oppresor taken down. So the argument that they wanted freedom and democracy was a sham, they just want their own brand of oppression to be the dominant force. Also lol at claiming poor civilians, and yet claiming that you wouldnt give a fuck if more countries descended into civil wars.

5) Some elements as you said, so, the elements that could ensure a similar deal that he had with Assad, which means basically changing one autocrat for another autocrat.

6) We will see, but dont get your hopes high.

1) flee to turkey? Some of the civilians did but the rebels are still there fighting
The russians were already razing tthe villages and bombing aid trucks prior to the shootdown , the turks ramped up weaponry to their kin and the russians to the pkk (among other tit for tat) ...the russians worked out a deal as any assitance to the pkk both invited turkish escalation and agrivated both assad and iran who for obvious reasons dont want the kurds getting more weapons

2) they havent stopped as theres been no reason given to stop

3)id say hel hop on a plane to iran etc before being dragged through the streets or a war crimes court

4) yes because political differences are soo easily worked out
Overthrowing dictators doesnt have to lead to civilians being punished...that part of the entire point.
You can be pro assad but anti the use of starvation ,gas,torture etc to win

5) he placed nonsuch terms ...all they had to do was drop the u.s as their patron and they got unlimited weapins and air strikes , he was hedging his bets

6)we will see id say sanactions and increased weapons are much more likely..luke i said air was just ine option open
Quatar has already said their feb weapons freeze is now off

 

[Squall Leonhart]

I'm not a prepper or anything, but at what point would you guys "get otta dodge" if you lived in the United States?

Say we choose the airstrike route or the no-fly zone route. Our planes tangle with russian planes or one of our planes gets shot down by those anti-air batteries. Is that the time to flee?

Or should we wait until a tactical nuke is used on a US base?

 

[Videer]

Ahrar al-Sham and Jund al-Aqsa fighting it out in Idlib.

 

[Rod1]

1) flee to turkey? Some of the civilians did but the rebels are still there fighting
The russians were already razing tthe villages and bombing aid trucks prior to the shootdown , the turks ramped up weaponry to their kin and the russians to the pkk (among other tit for tat) ...the russians worked out a deal as any assitance to the pkk both invited turkish escalation and agrivated both assad and iran who for obvious reasons dont want the kurds getting more weapons

2) they havent stopped as theres been no reason given to stop

3)id say hel hop on a plane to iran etc before being dragged through the streets or a war crimes court

4) yes because political differences are soo easily worked out
Overthrowing dictators doesnt have to lead to civilians being punished...that part of the entire point.
You can be pro assad but anti the use of starvation ,gas,torture etc to win

5) he placed nonsuch terms ...all they had to do was drop the u.s as their patron and they got unlimited weapins and air strikes , he was hedging his bets

6)we will see id say sanactions and increased weapons are much more likely..luke i said air was just ine option open
Quatar has already said their feb weapons freeze is now off

1) Yes, Turkey didnt backed down, thats why Erdogan totally not apologized in public about the whole incident.

2) Again, who wants to risk confrontation with Russia? if the US escalates then Russia can counter by attacking US military bases with ballistic missiles. At that point how do you de-escalate the situation? you cant. Certainly not a lottery worth playing over Syria.

3) Yes, but under his own terms, that means breaking the back of the rebels in Aleppo and then working over in the negotiations about a succesor.

4) I dont think anyone is really pro-Assad, they just see the reality that the country is fucked up beyond salvation.

5) I dont understand what you mean here.

6) Qatar the little terrorist sponsoring state? how long until their weapons are used against westerners? The point is moot though, the entire might of the GCC cant seem to be able to do shit against the Houthi uprising, but now they are going to join the rebels against Russia? give me a break.

 

[Lonesome Crow]

Ahrar al-Sham and Jund al-Aqsa fighting it out in Idlib.

They're fighting in Hama as well. Zinki Movement has "declared war" on Jund al-whatever the fuck as well.

If you need a visual to truly grasp and understand what's happening in Syria with all the different groups, militias, foreign actors, etc. all blasting each other to bits in perpetuity, follow these steps:

1. Take a can of alphabet soup, open it and dump the contents into a toilet bowl. The floating letters represent all parties involved in the conflict.

2. Drop trou and release the contents of your bowels into the toilet to intermingle freely with the alphabet soup (preferably after an all night bender that featured copious amounts of vodka and herculean intake of Taco Bell).

3. Light an M80 and drop it into the devil's concoction floating therein.

Welcome to Syria.

 

[whougonnacall]

1) Yes, Turkey didnt backed down, thats why Erdogan totally not apologized in public about the whole incident.

2) Again, who wants to risk confrontation with Russia? if the US escalates then Russia can counter by attacking US military bases with ballistic missiles. At that point how do you de-escalate the situation? you cant. Certainly not a lottery worth playing over Syria.

3) Yes, but under his own terms, that means breaking the back of the rebels in Aleppo and then working over in the negotiations about a succesor.

4) I dont think anyone is really pro-Assad, they just see the reality that the country is fucked up beyond salvation.

5) I dont understand what you mean here.

6) Qatar the little terrorist sponsoring state? how long until their weapons are used against westerners? The point is moot though, the entire might of the GCC cant seem to be able to do shit against the Houthi uprising, but now they are going to join the rebels against Russia? give me a break.

1)he shot down a russian plane , both sides hit each other with some economic weapons , both sides gave better weapons to their guys in syria and then they clearly made up with edrogan apologising and the turk military prepping to go into syria(delayed by coup).....pretty much similar to what would happen if we shot one of their birds down or vise versa.....it doesnt suddenly go straight to the mushroom clouds over cities brah.

2) that would assume they could fire without being noticed
Bottom line unless nukes are used its a war that ends quickly with them being badly spanked,

3)id doubt itl be under his own terms either iran makes him leave (they control his personal security now and virtualy run the ground campaign) or hes overthrown/in danger of being overthrown and either dies or runs
And the capture of aleppo wont really break anyones back.

4)agreed its fucked but it has to end sometime

5) ok

6)they have been one of the main outside rebel weaponnsources ....recently(feb) they virtualy shut that pipeline down ,now they have turned it back on in the past few days

 

[whougonnacall]

Ahrar al-Sham and Jund al-Aqsa fighting it out in Idlib.

Yup literaly one last real strongpoint areas to go before hama city and rebel offensive turns to infighting...idiots
Talk on pro rebel twitter is itl either be mediated out or everyone is going to dogpile on al-aqsa!

 

[whougonnacall]

Other news

- in a war notable for its cruelty regime ups tha bar...rice supplies to besieged areas in damascus allowed through but mixed with broken glass

-white helmets lose out nobel peace prize to colombian presidents deal (already rejected) russians send them consolation prize by bombing one of their centres

-mosul being prepped for huge lengthy battle , isis have concrete barriers and trenches some filled with oil as well as a virtual minefield of ieds prepped
They also took the bizzare step of banning kitten breeding in their territory....thatl show...erm..someone

-kerry says russia syria should face war crimes probe in toughest statement yet.

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[Rod1]

Yup literaly one last real strongpoint areas to go before hama city and rebel offensive turns to infighting...idiots
Talk on pro rebel twitter is itl either be mediated out or everyone is going to dogpile on al-aqsa!

Those are the people that will guarantee Russia their base and ensure there will be lasting peace in Syria right?

 

[Rod1]

1)he shot down a russian plane , both sides hit each other with some economic weapons , both sides gave better weapons to their guys in syria and then they clearly made up with edrogan apologising and the turk military prepping to go into syria(delayed by coup).....pretty much similar to what would happen if we shot one of their birds down or vise versa.....it doesnt suddenly go straight to the mushroom clouds over cities brah.

2) that would assume they could fire without being noticed
Bottom line unless nukes are used its a war that ends quickly with them being badly spanked,

3)id doubt itl be under his own terms either iran makes him leave (they control his personal security now and virtualy run the ground campaign) or hes overthrown/in danger of being overthrown and either dies or runs
And the capture of aleppo wont really break anyones back.

4)agreed its fucked but it has to end sometime

5) ok

6)they have been one of the main outside rebel weaponnsources ....recently(feb) they virtualy shut that pipeline down ,now they have turned it back on in the past few days

1) You forgot the part where Russia invaded Turkish airspace, so its not like Turkey told Russia not to continue flying.

2) The point is that if they are being spanked, they will consider the deployment of tactical nukes, thinking that it will not escalate further from there. Thats why a lot of military strategists think that its impossible to wage conventional warfare againt nuclear capable states.

3) The capture of Aleppo will effectively send the rebels into insurgency mode.

4) Yes, and i would rather it end without it spilling over into a US-Russian war.

6) My point is that GCC countries are incapable of dealing with the Houthis so i dont think they will be able to provide much assistance besides weapons, and the weapons they need cant be provided to them, since Russia is the only country willing to sell weapons without a guarantee of safe use.

 

[whougonnacall]

Those are the people that will guarantee Russia their base and ensure there will be lasting peace in Syria right?

Nope the base is history
assad is done, nothing can be done to stop that just delay it at this stage
itl be between his militas and the rebels to work sometuing out in the aftermath
This elimination of this pro isis milita is a +vs step

 

[whougonnacall]

1) You forgot the part where Russia invaded Turkish airspace, so its not like Turkey told Russia not to continue flying.

2) The point is that if they are being spanked, they will consider the deployment of tactical nukes, thinking that it will not escalate further from there. Thats why a lot of military strategists think that its impossible to wage conventional warfare againt nuclear capable states.

3) The capture of Aleppo will effectively send the rebels into insurgency mode.

4) Yes, and i would rather it end without it spilling over into a US-Russian war.

6) My point is that GCC countries are incapable of dealing with the Houthis so i dont think they will be able to provide much assistance besides weapons, and the weapons they need cant be provided to them, since Russia is the only country willing to sell weapons without a guarantee of safe use.

1) yes they worked it out instead of going to all out war ....just as a u.s russia shootdown would be worked out.

2)they already know theyd be spanked they arent delusional , nor are they gonna choose suicide (aka nukes) to save face
Which leads to them having their bluff called and backing down

3)the ones in that part of aleppo yes , which is just as bad for the manpower strapped regime.

4)so would i but its not going to
Like i said no fly zone was just one option and even it wouldnt lead to war
More lukelyvwere aboutbto ratchet up sanctions, open up the arms freeze to rebels and maybe even let the southern front loose again.

6) you forget years of sickeningly corrupt arms deals means the gulf states are awash with small arms plus many other states will sell (eastern european has been a fav shop for them given they stock the ammo for the old soviet era weaponry the rebels are using )

 

[Fronk]

- Uncle Sam won't establish a no fly zone for Al-Qaeda & friends, aka "moderate" rebels", no matter how much whougonnacall is foaming at the mouth for it.

- Aleppo will eventually fall to the regime in the next few months, either through brute force or negotiated rebel exit.

- Syrian civil war will continue for years, as there is no political party or figure that can unite the country.

- Assad's survival is assured, but he doesn't have enough support to retake the country.

- ISIS will collapse within the year, but will transform itself into an insurgency after losing most of its territory.

- Syrian civil war isn't so civil, both in terms of brutality and foreign actors. There are thousands of foreign fighters participating, supported by foreign powers.

Agree on most of these points. It's a good summary of the situation. But I do think ISIS have a lot more fight in them. In Iraq they are finished but in Syria they are still a relevant power. No party is even close to taking on Raqqa. SDF is the obvious candidate but in the end it's a front for the kurdish cause. It's going to take some real commitment from the US to get them to start an attack on Raqqa. Something like the delivery of heavy weapons including ATGMs and artillery. Since the US still have to keep Turkey on its good side this is unlikely to happen.

 

[whougonnacall]

Agree on most of these points. It's a good summary of the situation. But I do think ISIS have a lot more fight in them. In Iraq they are finished but in Syria they are still a relevant power. No party is even close to taking on Raqqa. SDF is the obvious candidate but in the end it's a front for the kurdish cause. It's going to take some real commitment from the US to get them to start an attack on Raqqa. Something like the delivery of heavy weapons including ATGMs and artillery. Since the US still have to keep Turkey on its good side this is unlikely to happen.

Kurds dont want to take raqqua anyway its way outside their desired state borders...why die for something ul just have to give up

 

[Videer]

It is being reported that some "vetted" groups in northern Syria have received MANPADS.

Tass reports that a Russian Mi-8 has been shot at with MANPANDS north of Hama.