Law Is a US military coup possible?

[Sinister]

Indeed. I think it's far more likely the military and/or ICE will be used to suppress the vote in historically Democrat-leaning constituencies in the mid-terms to try to ensure a Republican victory, which will accrue far less pushback from the armed forces than outright physical attacks on American citizens in the interim. The stuff they are doing now is just to test how far they can go, as @Limbo Pete has pointed out quite often.

Of course, if this is even close to being right--if they're successful--this would be a prelude to installing Vance for the following 10 years, and by then, anyone who might offer resistance will have been replaced by loyalists in much the same manner as what happened to the admin between Trump's first and second terms.

Vance is a lame duck, he can't pull it off. Yarvin know this, hence his plan to flee the US

 

[Andy Capp]

Vance is a lame duck, he can't pull it off. Yarvin know this, hence his plan to flee the US

Any old stooge will do, I think, and he's already there. But I don't know anything about Yarvin (other than that he apparently said he wants monarchy in the US lol) nor his plan to jump ship. Care to elaborate on that?

 

[cincymma79]

The males in the US military are very right wing

the females though lean liberal from what I understand

men keep women safe and they’re bored. they look for causes to follow

 

[joy2day]

It is possible, and we would be stupid to think it isn't.

Through all of this division, US institutions are still stronger than most of those in democracies that have fallen to authoritarian regimes. It would take a perfect storm to get the military to go along in the US, but it could happen. With the general division in the country, I could see one side justifying it as necessary to stop the other side even if it's a largely false narrative. Lies can get in the way of good common-sense governing that your typical person would be inclined to support.

It's concerning the way military leadership is being replaced, and watchdogs in the federal work force are being fired, not a good sign.

I don't think such a situation is imminent right now, but this is a legit concern, as it could be too late by the time it is out in the open.

Core American values do a lot to protect us because they are more broadly internalized by Americans than most people realize, but the intensity of hate-fueled division makes us vulnerable to the kind of total fracture that leads to violence and the eventual fall of our democracy.

 

[Source]

Any old stooge will do, I think, and he's already there. But I don't know anything about Yarvin (other than that he apparently said he wants monarchy in the US lol) nor his plan to jump ship. Care to elaborate on that?

I don’t know much about Yarvin either. Here is one of the first articles that popped up. Seems like there are quite a few people like this influencing this administration with their ideas to end democracy.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/09/curtis-yarvin-profile

 

[Sinister]

Any old stooge will do, I think, and he's already there. But I don't know anything about Yarvin (other than that he apparently said he wants monarchy in the US lol) nor his plan to jump ship. Care to elaborate on that?

Yarvin is the architect behind the Tech Broligarcy. Thiel, Musk, Zuckerberg, they're all members of his cult. He's jumping ship, and he recently penned an article for his Substack about the impending failure of this administration. Well, he says it's already a failure. And in his view it's because they didnt go hard fascist deep enough and fast enough. He thinks the judiciary should have been completely dismantled and Congress essentially dissolved, full-on dictator style. And he believes that the impending failure of this administration will lead to much harsher blowback because of their heavy-handed actions with ICE and there will be public demand for heads to roll.

 

[Sinister]

I don’t know much about Yarvin either. Here is one of the first articles that popped up. Seems like there are quite a few people like this influencing this administration with their ideas to end democracy.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/09/curtis-yarvin-profile

No one is as influential as Yarvin is. He is the guy who convinced Musk to back Trump financially.

 

[degoj99]

Since you mentioned causality and experiments and seaonality, what was r and p?

Quasi experiments - different than experiments. Here's a few ways to put a p value on it (r isn't appropriate here). (1) Run a binomial logistic regression with daily homicides as the predictor and 0 (before Trump) and 1 (after Trump) as the categorical "outcome" variable. (2) Discriminant function analysis predicting pre vs. post Trump (again 0-1) based on daily homicides. (3) Independent samples t-test using pre vs. post Trump as the IV and daily homicides as the DV.

Given we don't have a true experiment, there will be threats to internal validity (history is the main one). But this is the best we can do without true randomization.

 

[avenue94]

Quasi experiments - different than experiments. Here's a few ways to put a p value on it (r isn't appropriate here). (1) Run a binomial logistic regression with daily homicides as the predictor and 0 (before Trump) and 1 (after Trump) as the categorical "outcome" variable. (2) Discriminant function analysis predicting pre vs. post Trump (again 0-1) based on daily homicides. (3) Independent samples t-test using pre vs. post Trump as the IV and daily homicides as the DV.

Given we don't have a true experiment, there will be threats to internal validity (history is the main one). But this is the best we can do without true randomization.

And you are satisfied with a sample of...checks notes...like a couple weeks? All while talking about how rigorous your experiment is. Jesus lol

 

[Andy Capp]

Yarvin is the architect behind the Tech Broligarcy. Thiel, Musk, Zuckerberg, they're all members of his cult. He's jumping ship, and he recently penned an article for his Substack about the impending failure of this administration. Well, he says it's already a failure. And in his view it's because they didnt go hard fascist deep enough and fast enough. He thinks the judiciary should have been completely dismantled and Congress essentially dissolved, full-on dictator style. And he believes that the impending failure of this administration will lead to much harsher blowback because of their heavy-handed actions with ICE and there will be public demand for heads to roll.

Bet you a nickel he changes his tune now that Trump will get full credit from MAGA for the Israel-Hamas peace deal.

 

[Sinister]

Bet you a nickel he changes his tune now that Trump will get full credit from MAGA for the Israel-Hamas peace deal.

I dont think so. The piece he penned was very recent, maybe even after the deal was announced. Also Yarvin was very critical of the approach of the regime. See he wants FOR real fascism, and you know what President in US History he idolized in his model for US dictatorship? Fricken FDR.

See in his view, he thinks FDR behaved more like a CEO, who viewed Congress and the Judiciary more like boards of advisors. Now of course this is absurd, but its Yarvin's right wing fascist brain interpreting things as he sees fit. Roosevelt had a lot of criticisms and was accused of being fascist pre-WWII. However he had vehement criticism from both leftists and rightists. His loudest critic was fricken Hoover, who oversaw the actual Great Depression itself and had Americans living in shantytowns, eating dandelions they picked out of their yards.

My Grandmother was born in 1938, she was raised by parents who endured the Depression and the economic PTSD was real. That woman would buy groceries at the dollar store, and would make pots of food large enough to feed the whole Family for a week when it was just she and I. One time I told her "you know we dont have to buy giant quantities of things as cheap as possible right? We're ok. We can buy things as we need them and we can afford good quality things." She had a look on her face I'd never seen before. Like no one ever told her that. This was in 2001 or 2002.

The Depression did generational harm. So who the f*ck was Hoover to criticize? FDR was called a communist, a socialist, a corporate fascist, it's almost as if every criticism leveled against him reflected more the views of the person making the criticism. Yarvin himself is a racist and a fascist, so I'm sure he focused on the Historians who called FDR a fascist, but he looked at that more as a manual. "Hey if he did this, WE should do it."

His idea was that there is a President who is the face of the US Monarchy, and then there is the CEO who actually calls the shots. It seems as if he wanted Musk to be the CEO because he does think the decisions should be cold and pragmatic (FDR was a pragmatist)...these dingbats genuinely think their worldview is better for everyone, saving everyone. Yarvin favors fill dismantlement of State power so there can be no levers against the Monarchy from the lower class. He doesnt so much subscribe to merely controlling that power the way Miller seems to. He said "Its easier to get rid of all of the judges, than it is to just get rid of all the liberal ones." The idea being the appearance of impartiality. "I'm not going to leave only my preferred judges in place, I'm going to remove the judiciary entirely because I dont want you having any say in this."

He very succinctly indicated that he views this Administration as already a colossal blunder and thinks people like him will likely be destroyed over it.

 

[Mock Artwork]

Who needs the military for a coup?

 

[Sinister]

Who needs the military for a coup?

People who want their opposition shot?