Economy Inflation comes in lower than expected, lowest since 2021

[Long Dark Blues]

Fury shook, reeling at the news of lower inflation. Tears flowing, cheeks red, snot running down his face.

Hey Aqualung!

 

[Seano]

Hey Aqualung!

 

[CubicleGangster]

No, I always pay attention to them. That is why I knew to buy the dip, because I was paying attention to the hysteria they were creating. And I am paying attention now to know not to sell for a quick gain because based on them now saying this, I anticipate the gains will continue.

Simple as

I'm gonna trust the experts over the dude who created the Kari Lake thread, tyvm

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I'm gonna trust the experts over the dude who created the Kari Lake thread, tyvm

More power to you, hope you bought the dip tho.

 

[Deleted member 592570]

So instead of grocery prices being like 30% up, now they're 29.6% up. Wow

That's not how inflation works. Read a book.

 

[Deleted member 592570]

It’s the lowest rate in years…

Low rates are bad now

 

[Neph]

Canadian inflation also at 2.3%, but all the conservatives here will tell you the end of times are here.

Australian inflation also down. Thanks Trump!

 

[Deleted member 592570]

More power to you, hope you bought the dip tho.

These guys can't afford stonks.

 

[Xanzito]

TDS here is so sweet.

 

[Xanzito]

I'm gonna trust the experts over the dude who created the Kari Lake thread, tyvm

We should stop and listen to Jim Crammer.

 

[CubicleGangster]

We should stop and listen to Jim Crammer.

 

[Rob Battisti]

If I recall, I asked you how exactly they collected data and weighed it, and you had nothing to share there. Hence my confusion you keep citing it as the bestest CPI in the world despite very few folks buying from them.

That’s inaccurate. We literally had a multi page back and forth.

 

[avenue94]

That’s inaccurate. We literally had a multi page back and forth.

This was the convo. Things I asked and you didn't have answers for were.
-What's Truflations MAPE
-Why does Truflation both undershoot and overshoot the BLS with no rhyme or reason
-You said you'd grab a list of data providers but didn't (which I understand since data extraction is semi-illegal)

These are all very basic points for a CPI and why I keep asking what exactly about Truflation's approach makes it superior. It honestly seems as if you simply like it more due to its crypto relation or that it fits your worldview better, not because of better construction.

Again, it's a big red flag that Truflation is so rarely used in finance or any specific industry.

 

[Rob Battisti]

This was the convo. Things I asked and you didn't have answers for were.
-What's Truflations MAPE
-Why does Truflation both undershoot and overshoot the BLS with no rhyme or reason
-You said you'd grab a list of data providers but didn't (which I understand since data extraction is semi-illegal)

These are all very basic points for a CPI and why I keep asking what exactly about Truflation's approach makes it superior. It honestly seems as if you simply like it more due to its crypto relation or that it fits your worldview better, not because of better construction.

Again, it's a big red flag that Truflation is so rarely used in finance or any specific industry.

From what I can gather — based on available information, Truflation’s MAPE is reported to be 3.8% when benchmarked against the CPI over a 12-month period.

Truflation’s inflation index can be higher or lower than the BLS Consumer Price Index because it uses real-time data from millions of sources, capturing price changes faster, while the BLS relies on slower, monthly data with a heavier focus on housing costs. Differences in how they weight categories like housing and food, along with Truflation’s ability to adjust for consumer behavior, cause it to overshoot when prices spike quickly or undershoot when prices drop before the BLS notices. These variations depend on economic trends and timing, but Truflation’s 3.8% average error shows it closely tracks the BLS overall.

Truflation gathers its inflation data by aggregating real-time price information from over 80 diverse sources, including e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Walmart, real estate databases like Zillow, and research firms like NielsenIQ, covering more than 30 million items daily with a seven-step quality control process to ensure accuracy. Unlike the BLS, which uses manual surveys of about 80,000 items monthly, Truflation’s automated system pulls data from commercial aggregators, government reports, and academic partners, with 60% of its CPI basket from independent sources and 40% from BLS data, aiming for 80% independent coverage. It has a decentralized, blockchain-based approach, supported by the Truflation Stream Network and Chainlink oracles, allows daily updates and transparency, though its reliance on varied sources can lead to discrepancies with BLS due to differing methodologies and weightings.

Of course, nothing will convince you anyway…

 

[avenue94]

From what I can gather — based on available information, Truflation’s MAPE is reported to be 3.8% when benchmarked against the CPI over a 12-month period.

Did you chatgpt all of this...?

Truflation’s inflation index can be higher or lower than the BLS Consumer Price Index because it uses real-time data from millions of sources, capturing price changes faster, while the BLS relies on slower, monthly data with a heavier focus on housing costs.

Real time data doesn't account for those differences, prices don't shift that much. Even if you are taking in 3P pricing garbage, it won't swing that much. As I noted originally, this data is rolled up monthly, which should flatten any price swings from "real-time data"

The lack of consistency between the BLS and Truflation isn't reassuring. Misses are totally fine, but overshooting and undershooting with no rhyme or reason is another matter.

Truflation gathers its inflation data by aggregating real-time price information from over 80 diverse sources, including e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Walmart, real estate databases like Zillow, and research firms like NielsenIQ, covering more than 30 million items daily with a seven-step quality control process to ensure accuracy.

OK, so some red flags here. First, employees are kind of sketchy, notice how many of them are offshore (aka cheaper and good devs in the US aren't interested) and there's also no economic folks listed. Isn't it odd to you that a firm in the business of economic analysis and forecasting doesn't have a few heavy hitters?

Second, Truflation is only doing basic price scraping, no mention of filtering out 3P or getting member pricing at Costco (you can't miss Costco in a CPI for the US).

Third, as as anyone who has worked with NIQ would tell you, they don't have sell-out data, nor do they do price collection in the sense that other firms do in the data industry. What they have is receipt data (their main provider is Fetch if you're curious). Speaking as someone who's worked with their data, their receipt panel is useful but has hard limits depending on the category or bias from submissions (that's just inherent to receipt panels). A receipt panel is also only as good as a product library, of which again NIQ's is so-so. And NIQ's receipt sizes are better than nothing but really far from actual sell-out data.

That they're not working with Circana because they can't afford it, or even lower priced options like Yipit or Wizer means their price coverage is going to be less than optimal, especially in the home appliances bucket.

t has a decentralized, blockchain-based approach, supported by the Truflation Stream Network and Chainlink oracles, allows daily updates and transparency, though its reliance on varied sources can lead to discrepancies with BLS due to differing methodologies and weightings.

I don't know why a blockchain approach improves your CPI. How does that even work? It feels like you're just tossing out buzzwords.

Of course, nothing will convince you anyway…

I'm very open to being convinced, but you keep tossing out marketing copy without actual understanding or engaging with the core questions. What advantage does Truflation's approach offer? How is the way they way data (without sell-out mind you) better? Why do they keep overshooting and undershooting the BLS, which means no consistent bias to be corrected for (which is bad).

Edit: Final note here, Truflation also only has a US CPI and not EU, despite working with NIQ, who in turn owns GFK and actual sell-out data in Europe. Doesn't make a lot of sense if you're trying to track prices, right?

 

[Rob Battisti]

Did you chatgpt all of this...?

Real time data doesn't account for those differences, prices don't shift that much. Even if you are taking in 3P pricing garbage, it won't swing that much. As I noted originally, this data is rolled up monthly, which should flatten any price swings from "real-time data"



OK, so some red flags here. First, employees are kind of sketchy, notice how many of them are offshore (aka cheaper and good devs in the US aren't interested) and there's also no economic folks listed. Isn't it odd to you that a firm in the business of economic analysis and forecasting doesn't have a few heavy hitters?

Second, Truflation is only doing basic price scraping, no mention of filtering out 3P or getting member pricing at Costco (you can't miss Costco in a CPI for the US).

Third, as as anyone who has worked with NIQ would tell you, they don't have sell-out data, nor do they do price collection in the sense that other firms do in the data industry. What they have is receipt data (their main provider is Fetch if you're curious). Speaking as someone who's worked with their data, their receipt panel is useful but has hard limits depending on the category or bias from submissions (that's just inherent to receipt panels). A receipt panel is also only as good as a product library, of which again NIQ's is so-so. And NIQ's receipt sizes are better than nothing but really far from actual sell-out data.

That they're not working with Circana because they can't afford it, or even lower priced options like Yipit or Wizer means their price coverage is going to be less than optimal, especially in the home appliances bucket.

I don't know why a blockchain approach improves your CPI. How does that even work? It feels like you're just tossing out buzzwords.

I'm very open to being convinced, but you keep tossing out marketing copy without actual understanding or engaging with the core questions. What advantage does Truflation's approach offer? How is the way they way data (without sell-out mind you) better? Why do they keep overshooting and undershooting the BLS, which means no consistent bias to be corrected for (which is bad).

Edit: Final note here, Truflation also only has a US CPI and not EU, despite working with NIQ, who in turn owns GFK and actual sell-out data in Europe. Doesn't make a lot of sense if you're trying to track prices, right?

You like CPI. I like Truflation.

 

[avenue94]

You like CPI. I like Truflation.

Where did I say I like BLS (which is what you mean, since there are multiple CPIs, anyone can make one).

Like I said, you seem to like Truflation because of your own biases, whether it's the crtypo marketing or because its trends align with your pre-existing worldview. You don't appear to have any knowledge of the data that feeds a CPI, or the pros and cons of how Truflation sources its data.

I'm very open to being convinced, but you keep tossing out marketing copy without actual understanding or engaging with the core questions.

As I said, you never want to engage with the substance of this matter and answer questions. The only thing you have is "I like Truflation because of I do, but I can't actually explain why it's better."

Again, there's a reason Truflation is a small company with a very limited client list. The market clearly doesn't think their data is very useful.

Edit: Notice how many categories are missing from their own taxonomy? Also lol at a supposedly legitimate company hosting their methodology info in google drive. Jesus

 

[chrisdiaz]

from your own source
"The report suggests the tariffs haven’t yet impacted the prices of many items. "
"It will likely take more time for the full impact of the duties to be reflected in prices across U.S."

Not really the win you think it is....

Yeah bro the tariffs are coming havent you heard?

 

[Rob Battisti]

Where did I say I like BLS (which is what you mean, since there are multiple CPIs, anyone can make one).

Like I said, you seem to like Truflation because of your own biases, whether it's the crtypo marketing or because its trends align with your pre-existing worldview. You don't appear to have any knowledge of the data that feeds a CPI, or the pros and cons of how Truflation sources its data.


As I said, you never want to engage with the substance of this matter and answer questions. The only thing you have is "I like Truflation because of I do, but I can't actually explain why it's better."

Again, there's a reason Truflation is a small company with a very limited client list. The market clearly doesn't think their data is very useful.

Edit: Notice how many categories are missing from their own taxonomy? Also lol at a supposedly legitimate company hosting their methodology info in google drive. Jesus

I’ve engaged at length. You don’t like it. It’s okay.

 

[Deleted member 592570]

I’ve engaged at length. You don’t like it. It’s okay.

Maybe you and @avenue94 need to make a bet? That worked out well for @Jack V Savage