Crime Illegal US Border Crossings On Track For Lowest Levels In Nearly 60 Years

[Rob Battisti]

Rand seems like he sticks to his principles.

Yeah I like FrazzleRand as well.

 

[essie]

Bernie in 2019 - wanted to decriminalize crossings, abolish ICE, and give free healthcare to illegals.

If I'd have known that I would have voted for him in the primary instead of Biden lol. Although I think Bernie would have probably lost in 2020.

No doubt Trump unnecessary brings on a lot of the hate on himself with his brashness. Remember his muslim ban? Obama basically did the same thing except he didn't call it a Muslim ban when he did it. And Trump's ban wasn't really a ban on Muslims either because he didn't ban travel from some of the largest Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia.

But it also appears, to me, people on the left hold a lot of hypocrisy. A its only bad when someone from the other side of the aisle does it sort of thing. We're just too damn polarized and I blame the media and social media for a lot of this.

Bernie in 2019 - wanted to decriminalize crossings, abolish ICE, and give free healthcare to illegals.

Obama's visa ban was much smaller in scale. I disagree with it too but I also think this is something that conservatives (don't mean to name call if that's not how you identify, i'm still not so sure?) do where they point at something Obama did that was directionally similar to something Trump would do on a larger, crueler, or more inept scale and say "aha!". I think it would be much easier to have a discussion about this stuff if people just reckoned with the actual Trump policy or Obama policy in vacuums.

Obama's visa act specifically was about restricting access to ESTA applications. It was not a sweeping executive order, and it did not detain or restrict people from those countries even after they had been screened from entering the USA which is what Trump's order did. I personally don't like either policy but one is orders of magnitude more extreme and there is a reason why it would get the attention of people who weren't upset about Obama's visa act, and that has to do with the nature of the ban not with hysteria whipped up the media imo.

The point you make about it being an error on Trump's part to call it a muslim ban cuts both ways. I think it does bring on these reactions but that is what Trump feeds on and also calling it a muslim ban or gloating about it in a cruel way is explicitly what attracts his support base. He can't downplay it because it's not about the actual policy it's about the display, and that needs to be loud for his people to be happy. It should also be noted he had business dealings in Saudi Arabia.

 

[Rod1]

The easiest way was the way Trump just did it.

Nope, you still have over 10 million illegals in America, more coming with a visa, still going to get asylum claimants and soon the border will still be business as usual.

Certainly not going back to Biden levels anytime soon, but definitively going to go back to Obama-Trump levels in a few months.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Nope, you still have over 10 million illegals in America, more coming with a visa, still going to get asylum claimants and soon the border will still be business as usual.

Certainly not going back to Biden levels anytime soon, but definitively going to go back to Obama-Trump levels in a few months.

WR bet?

 

[Rod1]

WR bet?

Give me the parameters of the bet.

 

[Rod1]

This is the silver lining on the mess that is Trump, at least he seems to be determined to fuck with drug cartels which i support 100%.

 

[Rod1]

I'm pretty sure Thomas Massie is the only person in Congress (in either chamber) with any real principles at all. I remember Trump going ape shit on him on Twitter for holding up and questioning the $2.2 trillion "CARES Act" during COVID, lol.

Well, COVID did almost took America into a deflation zone, so increased spending made sense back then.

 

[Rod1]

Oh BS. There's no way the Dems want more white Europeans to be able to immigrate to America legally lmao.

Oh come on, this is 100% gaslighting and projecting on others

A lot of right wingers love to project their beliefs on others, because you want more white immigrants you automatically believe Dems want brown immigrants only.

DHS to Extend Temporary Protected Status for Ukraine | Homeland Security

The Department of Homeland Security announced the extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Ukraine for 18 months.

www.dhs.gov

Around 270k Ukrainian refugees were allowed into the US and given TPS, just like they did Venezuelans and Cubans.

Trump came and removed TPS for Venezuelans and Cubans claiming that Cuba and Venezuela are suddenly not extremely repressive communist shitholes, but kept them for Ukrainians.

Same deal in Canada. I had family just recently immigrate to Canada, it cost them tens of thousands of dollars and took YEARS. The last thing the government here wants is more well-educated productive white people. They only want third world slaves.

Maybe its because

A) Most European countries have good standards of living and those that don't are more likely to move to other European countries which have WAY easier immigration processes and are closer

Someone in Romania isn't going to illegally immigrate to America when they can legally move into Germany.

B) America is hard to immigrate to legally, that's why Musk at some point was also an illegal alien.

Biden was definitively pro-immigrants compared to other presidents, but said pro-immigrant policy did helped hundreds of thousands of WHITE Ukrainians to get into America.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Give me the parameters of the bet.

You said a “few months” maybe daily crossings being lower than the average of the Obama Trump years during the month of June?

 

[Rod1]

Someone in here earlier said they aren't really looking to debate on this topic because their feelings are too raw for it to be productive. I don't know if I am at that level (immigration is probably third on my order of issues I vote about) but I also just think in the macro I am coming to the war room more now just to see the perspective of the people celebrating and in charge. I am at such a low point in how I am feeling about whats going on in the country it's kind of cathartic to just confront the support for it.

I just say that to preface anything here because I do feel like it's way past the point of debate and you all won. But what I will say is substantively the Biden admin was more likely to detain undocumented people at the border.

"Under Biden, DHS made over 5 million arrests in its first 26.3 months, and it removed nearly 2.6 million—51 percent—while releasing only 49 percent. In other words, the Trump DHS removed a minority of those arrested while the Biden DHS removed a majority. Biden managed to increase the removal share while also increasing the total removals by a factor of 3.5."

https://www.cato.org/blog/new-data-show-migrants-were-more-likely-be-released-trump-biden

I don't feel like the majority of anyone supports an open border, even if I personally am more aligned with that than what Trump is doing. The rise in pro immigration rhetoric and support for undocumented people probably did come as a response not so much to policy but language. Trump's cruelty in both policy and speech towards immigrants did cause a great reaction.

But um you know I don't even really remember what I was going to say. But I guess typing that out proves like you are right and I shouldn't say it's the opposite more like I disagree with where it started. And I just feel like Trump was very effective at the fear mongering and he can make like...he can dictate the narrative is I guess what I mean. When he was doing his viciously racist anti immigrant Ohio stuff that was at a point in time when crossings were at a low. Apparently that is because the immigrants knew Trump was going to win (that's what someone in here said lol).

So like it's Trump doing brown person bad and then the base being like oh yeah and then the actual issue gets kind of erased. I don't remember the kids in cages stuff very well but I think Obama admin was using them as transport and Trump admin was using them as housing? That could be wrong though. But that's sort of my point if you think liberals and the previous Dem President (Obama) were anti immigration in the same way Trump is and then Trump ran on immigration being out of control wasn't he fear mongering?

Like if kids were in cages and even the leftist flank of the party (Bernie) was saying immigration is bad why did Trump 16 successfully run on a platform of the Democrats are pro illegal immigration? I don't think I am making much sense and I am sorry.

edit: is Bernie in favor of open borders now?

Thing is that Biden did fail in terms of foreign policy, i don't believe the replacement theory BS that people love to peddle, but the collapse of Cuba and Venezuela along with Biden's giving TPS to Cubans and Venezuelans did make a lot of them move North.

Not to mention its lax attitude and poor cooperation with Mexican government which led to Mexico not giving much of a fuck about all the people moving through its country. Trump foreign policy vis a vis Latin America works better than anything the DHS can do.

 

[Rod1]

You said a “few months” maybe daily crossings being lower than the average of the Obama Trump years during the month of June?

Ok, what about this if the population of illegals drop below 9 million outside of a recession and below 7 million if there is a recession, ill consider myself as being wrong. As i said, visa overstays are still going to be an issue.

I am however willing to accept your terms to compare by Jan 2026

 

[Possum Jenkins]

Border encounters have been sharply dropping since 2024. In October there was a 77 percent decline in encounters at the border. Didn't see a NY Post story about it.

Exactly.

Even the OP has a chart that shows that 2024 crossings were less than half of 2022 crossings. There is a clear downward trend that's been going on for years.

Yeah, Trump's tough guy rhetoric and actions have had an effect, but it's been one of many factors, not the only one and not the primary one. Like I've been saying for a while, the number of border apprehensions has more to do with the conditions of the sending countries, not the US.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Ok, what about this if the population of illegals drop below 9 million outside of a recession and below 7 million if there is a recession, ill consider myself as being wrong.

As i said, visa overstays are still going to be an issue.

Different issue. I’m more concerned about border crossings than visa overstays.

 

[Rod1]

Different issue. I’m more concerned about border crossings than visa overstays.

Fair point, lets extend this to Jan 2026 and ill take the bet

 

[Rob Battisti]

Fair point, lets extend this to Jan 2026 and ill take the bet

To make it apples to apples(will have to find the actual data) we can take the average crosses of the January months in Obamas 8 years and Trumps first 4 years. The bet will be that the average daily crossings in January 2026 will be lower than that average.

Sound about right?

 

[Rod1]

To make it apples to apples(will have to find the actual data) we can take the average crosses of the January months in Obamas 8 years and Trumps first 4 years. The bet will be that the average daily crossings in January 2026 will be lower than that average.

Sound about right?

Yes, im willing to take this bet.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Yes, im willing to take this bet.

Okay. I’m currently at 35,000 feet so when I land I’ll find the data and put it in the WR bet thread.

 

[Hog-train]

They're too urban. Urban folks vote left.

Record numbers of these urban, minority people voted for Trump because of the crime and illegals.

DHS to Extend Temporary Protected Status for Ukraine | Homeland Security

The Department of Homeland Security announced the extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Ukraine for 18 months.

www.dhs.gov

Around 270k Ukrainian refugees were allowed into the US and given TPS, just like they did Venezuelans and Cubans.

Trump came and removed TPS for Venezuelans and Cubans claiming that Cuba and Venezuela are suddenly not extremely repressive communist shitholes, but kept them for Ukrainians.

Ukrainians are fleeing actual war and have a much more legit case for asylum. The vast majority of the Venezuelans have a very poor case for asylum and do not qualify. They're just relying on the backlogged caseload and being released into the country.

On top of that, the Ukrainians are much more likely to be college educated. The Venezuelans are uneducated, low skill and come with zero money. They'll be a net drain on society.

 

[UberHere]

Record numbers of these urban, minority people voted for Trump because of the crime and illegals.

I’ve seen it myself and I’m a good 2 hour drive from the city. Community rec centers being shut down to house illegals as well as in some cases school gymnasiums. These things were happening mostly in low income areas and affecting urban and minority much more than suburban white.

Also hotels being packed to capacity with illegals causing all kinds of trouble in the local communities

 

[essie]

Rand seems like he sticks to his principles.

By the way I am curious if there is a Democrat you would say that about? Maybe even specifically one that you disagree with on most stuff. I was trying to think of a Republican that I would call principled but that has too positive of a connotation, so at least earnest maybe. In that way I do feel like Rand Paul is consistent although almost every position he has I would feel the opposite about.

I was also thinking that sticking to your principles sounds good but I don't mind politicians that are flexible. I think that stuff gets labeled as being like a snake or two faced but to me there is nothing wrong with evolving your views. This seems to go against Democrat politicians so much, people say they are being fake but it's because the nature of being a progressive is to constantly challenge your own worldview (ideally) whereas conservative politicians almost by definition have to dig their heels in to the past.