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My tourny would consist of these 4 fighters. I know some people might put Stipe in there instead of Poatan and that's fine, but personally I have no interest in watching Stipe fight at this age.
Francis vs Poatan
Aspinall vs Jones
How I think it would play out:
I love Poatan but he's unproven at that weight, and he has proven to be hittable, and all it takes is one from Francis. Plus Poatan is ALWAYS the bigger guy. No way to tell how he would be affected by suddenly being the little guy in the cage. Francis has proven that his wrestling is good enough to out grapple non wrestlers. I think he takes Alex down early and wears him out for the first round. Alex is completely exhausted from having that giant's weight on him, making his striking ineffective, and Francis KO's him in the 2nd.
The second fight is much closer, I thinkAspinall has a 60% chance of beating Jones. His grappling is better than Gane's so I don't expect Jones to have an easy takedown. I think it will look more like Jones vs Reyes, except you've got a guy that is much bigger than Reyes, hits harder, etc. I don't think Jones has the punching power to hurt anyone at HW.
Finals: Francis vs Aspinall
Francis was the best HW in the world a couple years ago, and the one thing that made me doubt him was that he mentioned knee problems, then left MMA to do boxing. Now I get that Renan is not a top HW, but the fight showed me that Frank's knee looks healthy, and he clearly still has that monstrous power in his fists. So I believe Francis is every bit the same fighter he was when he left. That means bad things for Aspinall, who has shown to be hittable, and again, Francis only needs one.
Francis vs Poatan
Aspinall vs Jones
How I think it would play out:
I love Poatan but he's unproven at that weight, and he has proven to be hittable, and all it takes is one from Francis. Plus Poatan is ALWAYS the bigger guy. No way to tell how he would be affected by suddenly being the little guy in the cage. Francis has proven that his wrestling is good enough to out grapple non wrestlers. I think he takes Alex down early and wears him out for the first round. Alex is completely exhausted from having that giant's weight on him, making his striking ineffective, and Francis KO's him in the 2nd.
The second fight is much closer, I thinkAspinall has a 60% chance of beating Jones. His grappling is better than Gane's so I don't expect Jones to have an easy takedown. I think it will look more like Jones vs Reyes, except you've got a guy that is much bigger than Reyes, hits harder, etc. I don't think Jones has the punching power to hurt anyone at HW.
Finals: Francis vs Aspinall
Francis was the best HW in the world a couple years ago, and the one thing that made me doubt him was that he mentioned knee problems, then left MMA to do boxing. Now I get that Renan is not a top HW, but the fight showed me that Frank's knee looks healthy, and he clearly still has that monstrous power in his fists. So I believe Francis is every bit the same fighter he was when he left. That means bad things for Aspinall, who has shown to be hittable, and again, Francis only needs one.
