How does Holloway even beat Gaethje?

[dipstickjimmy]

Holloway is my favourite fighter. I'm excited for this fight. Rather this than Emmett or another run at 45. This is weird and cool. But...Gaethje is a deadly matchup.
Gaethje's leg kicks will be a problem
The power will be a problem
The volume will be a problem
His counters will be a problem
His clinch strikes problematic
No range is safe with this guy.
His striking cardio holds up
What can max do to win? Apart from some weird counter punch TKO scenario, like
Max doesn't have knockout power like that.
He has good kicks but hasn't used them to great effect.
Sure that elbow he got kattar was nice but idk
The flurries and combos can be disrupted by Gaethje power shots.
Ironically the only area where max has a clear cut advantage is on the floor. Gaethje would not survive his top game if max stunned and knocked him down. Otherwise, this fight could turn ugly. Change my mind.

I think you are incorrect about Gathje's volume being a problem. Hard for Gathje to be a counter striker and a volume striker. It will be interesting to see how Justin attacks Max. Will he chop his legs early and try to kill Max's movement before attacking with big power for the KO? Or does he give Max no respect and try blitzing him with bursts of power shots trying to force the KO?

I also don't see Max having a big advantage with his Top Game. Gathje is the naturally bigger guy and having a base in wrestling I don't think Max can hold him down. Even if Gathje got wobbled I could see him survive as Max doesn't GnP with massive KO shots but like his standup overwhelms with volume.

I think Max could win a decision but I am not sure how exactly? Being a "BMF" fight I worry that Max feels "Pressured" to just Stand and Bang. To win he would need to fight very strategically. I think Justin either gets the finish or wins a massive beatdown.

 

[Harlekin]

For me it depends on how much Gaethje can slow the pace down with power, counters and leg kicks.
If he can, he wins, if he can't he loses 4th and 5th and then it depends which other round/s Holloway gets.

Holloway vs Cater 445 of 744


Gaethje's highest two
vs Alvarez 124 of 240 gassed and lost
vs Poirier I 116 of 213 gassed and lost


At altitude I would bet a small amount on Holloway if good underdog, but they fight in Las Vegas.

 

[pankrat]

Boxing. High output and discipline

 

[HHJ]

If max puts on a heavy pace and doesn't get KO'd in the first two rounds, he has a chance.

Will this be 5 rds cos its BMF?

 

[HHJ]

Boxing. High output and discipline

I just dont see him being able to deter the forward violence of Justin for long.

 

[pankrat]

I just dont see him being able to deter the forward violence of Justin for long.

Yeah it's a very tough fight, I dont favour him.
I do give Max a better chance than I would to most LWs though

 

[TeenageMutantLesnarTurtle]

Max has better hands, a better chin and a better gas tank. He could maybe outbox Gaethje to the decision but I wouldnt count on it. I think this could be the fight that breaks Max and causes him to go on the downslide. His chin is gonna be tested big time and his legs are gonna get chewed up. I could even see him getting KTFO.

That said, if he somehow pulls it off its a ridiculously good win given the context. Would have to push him pretty significantly up the all time rankings and hes already an ATG.

 

[NationWideNinja]

Gaethje when pressured tends to go into his default maniac mode where he swings so hard that he throws himself of balance. If Max can apply suffocating pressure from the start while maintaining a disciplined defensive game he can force Gaethje in this sloppy mode where hes a lot easier to hit, predict, and potentially finish. Like what he did to Aldo.

Thats obviously a lot easier said than done because Max's defense sucks, and Gaethjes single shot accuracy is great. I dont see Holloway not eating a lot of powershots in this one.

If Max doesnt go full pressure mode and instead goes for the measured approach, I think he gets demolished. Leg chewed apart and single shots just snapping his head back constantly making it look like the sequel to the Tony fight.

 

[BangBang]

Holloway is my favourite fighter. I'm excited for this fight. Rather this than Emmett or another run at 45. This is weird and cool. But...Gaethje is a deadly matchup.
Gaethje's leg kicks will be a problem
The power will be a problem
The volume will be a problem
His counters will be a problem
His clinch strikes problematic
No range is safe with this guy.
His striking cardio holds up
What can max do to win? Apart from some weird counter punch TKO scenario, like
Max doesn't have knockout power like that.
He has good kicks but hasn't used them to great effect.
Sure that elbow he got kattar was nice but idk
The flurries and combos can be disrupted by Gaethje power shots.
Ironically the only area where max has a clear cut advantage is on the floor. Gaethje would not survive his top game if max stunned and knocked him down. Otherwise, this fight could turn ugly. Change my mind.

I share your concerns. He is also my favourite fighter. The fear the flurries and combois will be disrupted by ANY Gaethje shot, they so damn powerful and that we don't see Max shifting through the gears as a result of getting stunned time and time again.

Gaethje is faster than people think and his discipline is err more disciplined than people think.
OTH if Max pulls this off........you know it's the hope that kills you...

 

[Deleted member 592659]

By punching him in the head?

 

[Pepy]

via TKO (leg injury) after checking a kick

 

[Gladiator24]

Stick and move, use his jab and win on points

 

[Kono dio da!]

Max has a nasty guillotine, especially off a club-n-sub

If he can somehow wobble Justin, make him dip his head, grab up that neck


Highly unlikley though

Oh yeah that mounted guillotine he got cub with. Dawg imagine! Imagine if he did that to Gaethje.

 

[Tweak896]

How does anyone beat anyone? Max has the highest volume of strikes, needs to outstrike Gaethje 3/5 and get a decision.

 

[markg171]

By pressuring him hard, same way you always beat Gaethje.

It's amazing to me how many people think the way to beat Gaethje is to be technical and patient. That's literally never worked. All of his hardest fights have been when he's either put on his backfoot or met in the middle. Sometimes he wins those, but they're still his hardest fights while the ones where he's given space are his easiest ones. He's not really some trenches brawler.

Max's problem here is likely the same problem he had with Dustin where the power's just not there, especially when he's not even making a proper commitment to 155. He'll likely have success and could win, but more likely than not Justin's greater power sees him through the fight.

 

[Nabs]

He doesn't.

 

[TriangleMonkey]

Oh yeah that mounted guillotine he got cub with. Dawg imagine! Imagine if he did that to Gaethje.

Andre Fili fell victim to that mug/sub too

 

[flektarn]

Rocks him once and then Gaethje loses all composure and starts loading up on his punches which Max will see from a mile away. But Max needs to land a damn good one.

 

[Levi_]

Max is a likable champ, but I think there is a lot of wishful thinking here. Max does not have a stylistic advantage; they will be doing the same thing- kicking and punching each other standing, with one being bigger and more powerful. Max's chances are being overestimated.

 

[GrantB13]

The same way he wins any fight. But he could very well get TKOd here.