Economy GOP back to Inflation worries. "Hyperinflation" (Update: 2022 Inflation Highest in 40 Years)

Rob Battisti said:
Impossible, and let me tell you why inflation isn’t happening. - Jack
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Just a dip in the year-ago period. But what I've actually been asking for is for anyone who is predicting inflation to say what they think it will be and bet on it because I suspect that on some level at least, it's just bullshit (that is, people don't really think that inflation is going to be high).

E1MVhp2XIAgoC2V
 
Inflation is already here. Buy gas, lumber, food, etc. It all costs significantly more.
 
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cottagecheesefan said:
Derp

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Just keep printing money... lol. The Democrat way...

Don't worry our grandkids will somehow take care of it for us... Biden will be long gone by then, why should it bother him? It's not like his son has a real family or anything.
 
Whippy McGee said:
Inflation is already here. But gas, lumber, food, etc. It all costs significantly more.
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It always astounds me that anyone falls for such obviously poor reasoning. "Some prices have risen more than average, therefore the average is wrong!" Do people apply that to other areas of life? "The liberals say that Mike Trout is hitting .355, but he was 0-for-3 last night, which proves that can't be true!" How can someone function in ordinary life operating on such a low level?
 
What else do you expect? When you're making it easier for ppl to just be on unemployment benefits rather than getting a real job, and keeping the money printer going brrrr so that you can pay for poor ppl to get free shit instead of working for it, inflation is bound to happen.

And just wait until $15/hour minimum wage gets here. $15/hour is roughly $30K per year. For what? For burger flippers? You give easy money to people and obviously other people will charge more for basic shit and generate inflation.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Just a dip in the year-ago period. But what I've actually been asking for is for anyone who is predicting inflation to say what they think it will be and bet on it because I suspect that on some level at least, it's just bullshit (that is, people don't really think that inflation is going to be high).
Click to expand...

On this point, @HereticBD predicted both a crash and high inflation (nevermind that a crash would have a deflationary effect...), but then ran from the thread when I asked him to get specific and bet on it. I think there's a sincere bad feeling that hacks about the other party being in power, but it's combined with a knowledge that they're going to look foolish if they actually stick their necks out and predict something.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Just a dip in the year-ago period. But what I've actually been asking for is for anyone who is predicting inflation to say what they think it will be and bet on it because I suspect that on some level at least, it's just bullshit (that is, people don't really think that inflation is going to be high).

E1MVhp2XIAgoC2V
Click to expand...

I’m a simple man, I see incredible amounts of government spending, coupled with prices going up and I put 2&2 together.

I appreciate you. I appreciate your insight. I just see you as the highly arrogant technocrat who uses their intelligence and reasoning to say everything is ok — when it’s not.

This is the kind of position which leads to government distrust. When you have highly trained and specific individuals running silos with little understanding of how other silos are run, but because of your specific skill set, you are confident everything will continue to run as it will. No need for any expansion of doubt.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Just a dip in the year-ago period. But what I've actually been asking for is for anyone who is predicting inflation to say what they think it will be and bet on it because I suspect that on some level at least, it's just bullshit (that is, people don't really think that inflation is going to be high).

E1MVhp2XIAgoC2V
Click to expand...
Tbf if you also removed the effects of housing and maybe healthcare you'd be left with a measure that captures almost nothing of what the average person cares about.

Not saying that's right or wrong, but it could help explain some of the bias you're talking about here.
 
Jack V Savage said:
On this point, @HereticBD predicted both a crash and high inflation (nevermind that a crash would have a deflationary effect...), but then ran from the thread when I asked him to get specific and bet on it. I think there's a sincere bad feeling that hacks about the other party being in power, but it's combined with a knowledge that they're going to look foolish if they actually stick their necks out and predict something.
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I asked you to provide numbers for a general outline of a bet you proposed, and I'd take a look. You wanted to play your usual games, and talk to yourself instead, so that was that. My desire to even begin to set up a bet with you is at about 0.05% since it's like a 900 page contract signing no matter how simple the bet may be, so when you show the first sign of non-committal bullshit, I'm out.

Anyways, economists seem to be sounding the alarms and the evidence of inflation is there already, so uhh, good luck.
 
Rob Battisti said:
I’m a simple man, I see incredible amounts of government spending, coupled with prices going up and I put 2&2 together.

I appreciate you. I appreciate your insight. I just see you as the highly arrogant technocrat who uses their intelligence and reasoning to say everything is ok — when it’s not.
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So what inflation numbers are you expecting for the end of the year? You don't have to believe me. Just do an experiment yourself. Make a prediction based on your understanding of the likely effect, and then check if the prediction comes true, and then adjust your thinking when you see it doesn't (or maybe in the process of committing yourself to a prediction, you'll moderate). Is that really "arrogant"? I think your "fuck the facts, fuck what people who study this think, fuck the need to test my beliefs, I know everything" attitude is far more arrogant.

Rob Battisti said:
This is the kind of position which leads to government distrust. When you have highly trained and specific individuals running silos with little understanding of how other silos are run, but because of your specific skill set, you are confident everything will continue to run as it will. No need for any expansion of doubt.
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But I'm calling for a prediction and test. You're the guy who is so sure that everything will run the way you think it will that you don't even think you need to test your beliefs or match them up with history.
 
HereticBD said:
I asked you to provide numbers for a general outline of a bet you proposed, and I'd take a look. You wanted to play your usual games, and talk to yourself instead, so that was that. My desire to even begin to set up a bet with you is at about 0.05% since it's like a 900 page contract signing no matter how simple the bet may be, so when you show the first sign of non-committal bullshit, I'm out.

Anyways, economists seem to be sounding the alarms and the evidence of inflation is there already, so uhh, good luck.
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You said there would be a collapse. I asked you what numbers you're expecting, and you ran. Similarly, you also predicted high inflation (which contradicts your prediction of a collapse), and I asked you what numbers you're expecting, and you ran from that. If we get a boom, which is looking likely, we'll see some short-term inflationary pressure (talking about like 3% for a little while, which would still put us below target over a longer period), but if you're going to make some crazy prediction, I'm willing to bet on it.
 
Tycho Brah said:
Tbf if you also removed the effects of housing and maybe healthcare you'd be left with a measure that captures almost nothing of what the average person cares about.

Not saying that's right or wrong, but it could help explain some of the bias you're talking about here.
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Not sure where this is coming from. Housing and healthcare are included in CPI (not the sale price of housing units, but shelter costs). Gas and food are included in CPI but not the core measure because of their volatility, and that's probably what consumers notice most. But I really think it's just a general feeling that prices are always rising and it's bad combined with partisanship that's at play here.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Not sure where this is coming from. Housing and healthcare are included in CPI (not the sale price of housing units, but shelter costs).
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Just extending on the part of your image that tames inflation by removing the volatility of food and gas prices. Almost everyone I've heard complain about inflation recently talks pretty exclusively about those (+lumber), which could explain the strength of their convictions on the subject.
 
Tycho Brah said:
Just extending on the part of your image that tames inflation by removing the volatility of food and gas prices. Almost everyone I've heard complain about inflation recently talks pretty exclusively about those (+lumber), which could explain the strength of their convictions on the subject.
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We're still looking at just over 2% on a two-year basis. And when did lumber become a key element of inflation? Inflation is a general rise in prices, while lumber is up relative to other prices, which is obviously driven by forces that are specific to that one product market. That one goes back to the idea that the average of a set of numbers can't be lower than any items in the set, which no one really believes, but sleazy people will latch onto for purposes other than understanding reality.
 
But I was told by a couple of really intelligent posters in another thread that democrats run better economies and inflation is just fake news that conservatives cry about.

How about we wake up to reality and stop irrationally trying to defend whatever party we side with?
 
MoparOrNoCar said:
But I was told by a couple of really intelligent posters in another thread that democrats run better economies and inflation is just fake news that conservatives cry about.

How about we wake up to reality and stop irrationally trying to defend whatever party we side with?
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I like the last sentence. Why not make a prediction about what inflation will be by the end of the year and then if it turns out that that prediction is wrong, learn from your mistake? People should have done that starting in 2008, actually, but the same people who were wrong then are saying the same thing again. It's madness.
 
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