General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

What are we thinking Chimaev closes at boys, -1400?





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svmr_db said:
It is a 5 rounder, it is the main event for UFC 279 on Sept 10th. Diaz' cardio could definitely come into play if he somehow doesn't get smashed in the first few rounds.
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Only thing I’m really worried about is how easily he cuts.

-2000 is absurd for chimaev. Who bet him at -1400 to move the line to -2000? They should be embarrassed
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
Only thing I’m really worried about is how easily he cuts.

-2000 is absurd for chimaev. Who bet him at -1400 to move the line to -2000? They should be embarrassed
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That's idioic. Chimaev most likely smashes Nate but anyone who pays that juice doesn't understand the variance of MMA. Nate was getting completely dominated vs Leon and then Leon gassed and Nate damn near finished him.
 
mkess101 said:
That's idioic. Chimaev most likely smashes Nate but anyone who pays that juice doesn't understand the variance of MMA. Nate was getting completely dominated vs Leon and then Leon gassed and Nate damn near finished him.
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Yea and chimaevs cardio was looking rough early against burns. Diaz will always be able to put that pace on. I doubt chimaev lives up to that price tag.

diaz has been asking for this fight for months. Last fight on his contract. He would get a huge buzz beating khamzat
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
Yea and chimaevs cardio was looking rough early against burns. Diaz will always be able to put that pace on. I doubt chimaev lives up to that price tag.

diaz has been asking for this fight for months. Last fight on his contract. He would get a huge buzz beating khamzat
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I wouldn't pay the juice but I'd also be wary of betting anything significant on Nate. The line is wide but it's still highly unlikely that Nate wins.
 
-2000 is not absurd. This fight is just stupid. Diaz has almost 0% chance to win. A dq or a freak injury is the only thing that could go wrong for chimaev.
 
Broe. said:
-2000 is not absurd. This fight is just stupid. Diaz has almost 0% chance to win. A dq or a freak injury is the only thing that could go wrong for chimaev.
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That's basically what most thought about the Edwards fight. And it looked that way most of the way. But then the pace got to Leon and he gassed hard. Nate was really close to a late finish.

Chimaev **should** roll. But he won't pace himself, it's not his mindset. If he comes out blazing and doesn't get the early finish, there's a chance he gasses.

-2000 dude...no way. I'll just pass probably but I damn sure won't pay that insane juice.
 
mkess101 said:
That's basically what most thought about the Edwards fight. And it looked that way most of the way. But then the pace got to Leon and he gassed hard. Nate was really close to a late finish.

Chimaev **should** roll. But he won't pace himself, it's not his mindset. If he comes out blazing and doesn't get the early finish, there's a chance he gasses.

-2000 dude...no way. I'll just pass probably but I damn sure won't pay that insane juice.
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Chimaev arguably lost to burns in 3 and now he’s a -2000? It doesn’t even make sense
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Burns would probably be a very sizeable favourite over Nate himself.
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Sure, like -400 or -500 maybe. Burns vs Kazmat was a close barnburner. But Kazmat is FOUR TIMES as likely to beat Nate??

Nah. People should do what they way with their own $ but betting -2000 faves in a high variance sport like MMA is a good way to go broke imo. Esp when it's not like it's a bum who's gonna quit that's the dog. Nate is overmatched sure, but he's still got mad cardio and is durable. (Well durable in the sense that his chin is still rock solid. Obviously he cuts as easily as anyone we've ever seen which is a factor).
 
mkess101 said:
Sure, like -400 or -500 maybe. Burns vs Kazmat was a close barnburner. But Kazmat is FOUR TIMES as likely to beat Nate??

Nah. People should do what they way with their own $ but betting -2000 faves in a high variance sport like MMA is a good way to go broke imo. Esp when it's not like it's a bum who's gonna quit that's the dog. Nate is overmatched sure, but he's still got mad cardio and is durable. (Well durable in the sense that his chin is still rock solid. Obviously he cuts as easily as anyone we've ever seen which is a factor).
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I wouldn't bet on anyone to beat my grandmother at that price tbh. I'm more looking at it from the perspective of people looking to bet Nate. I think it's one of the ones where you notice the long odds and the potential to win a lot, but I think him winning is highly unlikely.
 
Nice, I'm happy to risk half a unit on Nate at these odds.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I wouldn't bet on anyone to beat my grandmother at that price tbh. I'm more looking at it from the perspective of people looking to bet Nate. I think it's one of the ones where you notice the long odds and the potential to win a lot, but I think him winning is highly unlikely.
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Agree. It's also where the spread makes it easy to just pass. Laying 20-1 on Kazmat is ridiculous, but you aren't getting 17-1 on Nate. More like 10-1 or maybe 12-1.

Better to just take a pass imo. If Nate survives early and Kazmat looks like he's gassing from trying to finish and you can get Nate at crazy odds in Rd 4 or something maybe a small play live. Otherwise, nope.
 
mkess101 said:
Agree. It's also where the spread makes it easy to just pass. Laying 20-1 on Kazmat is ridiculous, but you aren't getting 17-1 on Nate. More like 10-1 or maybe 12-1.

Better to just take a pass imo. If Nate survives early and Kazmat looks like he's gassing from trying to finish and you can get Nate at crazy odds in Rd 4 or something maybe a small play live. Otherwise, nope.
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Thats exactly the thing. Just because you won´t bet the fav, it doesnt mean someone should just bet the dog, its not that simple, as the bookie has a lot of juice.

For big favs I like to look into potential props. Usually for Khamzat ITD has been a nice prop to bet on. I love those dec props too where you turn a -400 fav into a -125 or -110.
 
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FimbulFightPicks said:
Thats exactly the thing. Just because you won´t bet the fav, it doesnt mean someone should just tbe the dog, its not that simple, as the bookie has a lot of juice.

For big favs I like to look into potential props. Usually for Khamzat ITD has been a nice prop to bet on. I love those dec props too where you turn a -400 fav into a -125 or -110.
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Agree. Will be interested to see Kazmat itd. Nate is durable in the sense his chin is still seemingly rock solid. But as with the Masvidal fight, he just gets split open so easily that it's hard to imagine him making it 25 minutes without a doctor stoppage here.
 
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