General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

[burge13]

Hall landed the jab at will on Costa but couldn't keep Costa off him. I see Izzy trying a similar game plan more successfully but how long can he keep Costa from walking through and landing his power shots.

Izzy is -200 here. Not betting him at those odds

 

[BigSteve]

Adesanya -155
Costa +125

Pounding that Adesanya line

Smashing costa

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Dodson at 2.62 v Merab is interesting

Dodson is notoriously difficult to get and keep down, and Merab gasses late on in fights

 

[BigSteve]

Dodson at 2.62 v Merab is interesting

Dodson is notoriously difficult to get and keep down, and Merab gasses late on in fights

Ye i am hitting that, have been waiting since the matchup got announced

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Dodson at 2.62 v Merab is interesting

Dodson is notoriously difficult to get and keep down, and Merab gasses late on in fights

How does he win though? Merab could win on striking volume alone since Dodson has reverted to his WEC days and throws nothing.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

How does he win though? Merab could win on striking volume alone since Dodson has reverted to his WEC days and throws nothing.

I feel like you just completely missed the Nathaniel Wood fight (and the Petr Yan fight tbh)

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I feel like you just completely missed the Nathaniel Wood fight (and the Petr Yan fight tbh)

You would be correct.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

You would be correct.

Dodson looked REALLY good in both fights, throwing far more aggressively than we've seen him throw for a long time. Still looked as sharp as ever speed wise, but he was actually there to get the finish rather than playing the outside point fighting game we saw against Wineland

It's possible that getting rocked by Yan finally woke him up and made him realise it's do or die in there and that he division was passing him by (and if he was at all complacent against Yan he would have left there in a body bag). The caveat is that it's also possible that the renewed energy/hunger/fire was exclusive to the Yan match and the Wood match - The Yan one because Petr Yan is fucking terrifying, the Wood one being a combination of feeling disrespected at being an underdog to an unproven nobody and fighting at home in New Mexico and wanting to out on a show. With both fights he also had the advantage of his opponent pushing the pace in the striking, while all Merab can really do is grapple

I can see why the line is where it is, but I still think Dodson is a +EV play all things considered because of his defensive grappling, speed and one shot power

 

[BigSteve]

How does he win though? Merab could win on striking volume alone since Dodson has reverted to his WEC days and throws nothing.

My thoughts are that Merab is very hittable, and I have been waiting for someone decent to fade him against. Dodson hasent crossed my mind but probably the perfect solution. Quick explosive hands + the insane scrambling ability. All he needs is a couple knock downs per round.

 

[lefontes]

Giga Chidadze 1.53 against Alex Cáceres is great. Giga is world class kickboxer and great tdd. Whats Alex will do in this fight to win?!

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Giga Chidadze 1.53 against Alex Cáceres is great. Giga is world class kickboxer and great tdd. Whats Alex will do in this fight to win?!

Yeah. Looking ahead I like Giga Chidadze despite his gastank I´m not too fond of, and Alex often a bit of a fun guy in there, not the best fight iq as we saw vs Hooper either, and Peterson is not a great win either. Also really like Virna Jandiroba in her matchup and Xan around pickem odds, due to Gadelhas gas tank and how she seems more and more chinny, and Xan is energetic, a bit small, but think Gadelhas odds are influenced by her controversial win vs Hill. Think LB there might be good. Always like LB vs Gadelha due to her first 1-2 good rounds. Will never forget vs Joanna how she made JJ into a fairly big dog live.

 

[Yotsuya]

So what's sherdog bettor's consensous on DC vs Stipe? Right now dead even -110 to -110 odds. Any gueses on which way line will shift as it gets closer? If either ends up much of a dog at all, the value is there. But I can't see this getting further away than -130 to +110.

DC won first fight by knockout, and did a lot better than I remember 1st two rounds of their rematch and I think won round 3 as well but was much closer. Concerningly, Stipe didn't make any adjustments and just fell into the handfight in space where DC has him in his range for swat jabs and hooks around the guard that's lower due to clinch threat from DC. Wasn't til 4th round Stipe had more range and worked in bodyshots (but maybe he comes out that way in the 3rd fight)

After rewatching both fights I'm pretty strongly leaning solid bet on DC.

Cormier scoring the KO was direct result of an eye-poke and him crumbling so badly from bodyshots in second fight seems to indicate he's getting old or losing his nerve or both.

 

[Broe.]

how do you guys feel about +140 for Sterling vs Yan?

 

[mkess101]

how do you guys feel about +140 for Sterling vs Yan?

I like Aljo in the matchup honestly. 5d doesn't have odds out yet, but I'll be on Sterling at any + number. Yan is great, but I think Aljo is actually the more effective striker from distance. Yan needs to pressure and fight from in tight in this one imo, and by doing that he's bringing Sterling's superior grappling game into the mix big time. I'm not sure I think Sterling is for sure the better fighter, but I like the matchup and slightly favor him.

 

[Broe.]

I like Aljo in the matchup honestly. 5d doesn't have odds out yet, but I'll be on Sterling at any + number. Yan is great, but I think Aljo is actually the more effective striker from distance. Yan needs to pressure and fight from in tight in this one imo, and by doing that he's bringing Sterling's superior grappling game into the mix big time. I'm not sure I think Sterling is for sure the better fighter, but I like the matchup and slightly favor him.

some books have this line already, i bet Sterling already, I am just wondering if the line is good.

 

[mkess101]

some books have this line already, i bet Sterling already, I am just wondering if the line is good.

Yeah not sure compared to other books. Will see what 5d has soon I'd imagine.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

that cuck woodley pulled out again so august 22 main event is now frankie edgar vs munhoz (moved from the original 15th) and will be main event 5 rounds instead. your pre existing munhoz bets will be cancelled, and 5 rounds is nail in the coffin for edgar.

 

[careto]

Is it me or Marlon Vera has a real shot at beating O'Malley? I like Vera in this fight, specially at +230. He has never been finished, has only lost decisions, scrappy af, granite chin, good cardio. Sounds like a real test for O'Malley.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Is it me or Marlon Vera has a real shot at beating O'Malley? I like Vera in this fight, specially at +230. He has never been finished, has only lost decisions, scrappy af, granite chin, good cardio. Sounds like a real test for O'Malley.

Probably get a way better price on him live betting after first round. Always seems to give that round away while sugar starts off strong.

 

[Broe.]

Probably get a way better price on him live betting after first round. Always seems to give that round away while sugar starts off strong.

I doubt you get better than +275 for vera even if he loses the first round