War Wagon Gane is going to shock the world.

[snugglecakes]

 

[JBJ was here]

What's funny is this exact scenario played out the same way with Ngannou and Stipe. Ngannou got absolutely manhandled via wrestling in their first fight, and a lot of people wrote off that he'd ever be able to beat Stipe or win the title because he had no wrestling. Then Ngannou went back, completely changed his ground game and TDD, and became a much better fighter.

Except that's not at all what happened. Between Ngannou's first and second fights with Miocic, Miocic got very, very old and decrepit. He went from 35 to 38 and took as much cumulative damage over the course of three fights with Cormier as he had in the rest of his career combined to that point. Stipe severely downgraded his chin and exchanged his knees for two rusted out metal joints. The Stipe who fought Ngannou the second time was much, much closer to being the Stipe who fought Jones than the Stipe from his first Ngannou fight, while Ngannou was barely changed.

 

[TheGreenMachine]

Except that's not at all what happened. Between Ngannou's first and second fights with Miocic, Miocic got very, very old and decrepit. He went from 35 to 38 and took as much cumulative damage over the course of three fights with Cormier as he had in the rest of his career combined to that point. Stipe severely downgraded his chin and exchanged his knees for two rusted out metal joints. The Stipe who fought Ngannou the second time was much, much closer to being the Stipe who fought Jones than the Stipe from his first Ngannou fight, while Ngannou was barely changed.

No, that is exactly what happened. Stipe had back to back wins over Cormier, who is still one of the GOATs at HW. At the time, he was like 37/38, which is still young for HW. Meanwhile, Ngannou struggled to overcome his lackluster fight (and loss) to Derrick Lewis. Sure, Ngannou bounced back, but it was a quick win over an past prime/injury prone Cain coming off a long layoff, past his prime JDS, Blaydes (a good win), and Rozenstruik.

The odds for the Stipe and Ngannou II fight were even at the time. If Stipe was written off, Ngannou would have come in as an overwhelming favorite. He didn't because he was dominated so badly the first time. People forget that everyone pretty much wrote Ngannou off as broken after the terrible Lewis fight. Even with those next few wins, everyone thought Stipe permantly broke him mentally. I'm not saying Gane is going to become a D1 wrestler or KO artist. But HW contenders/champs tend to have a lot more ups and downs than the lighter weight divisions, so its hard to predict how their next fights will go.

 

[SuperAlly]

It’s already shit, I’ve accepted it as shit, I still watch the shit. Some men just want to see the world covered in shit.

Well, I can't argue with that then

 

[SuperAlly]

You are absolutely crusing to a win when you get hit with a flash knockdown, bounce right back up, hurt the other guy, win the round, unanimously, and land 3.5X the number of strikes as the other guy before you brutally KO him.

Take your own advice about being a douche.

Belligerence is not a desirable trait

 

[SuperAlly]

. He got a knockdown, which, since this is MMA and not boxing, is just another strike to be judged by how much damage it did and whether it effectively set anything else up.

Jog on

 

[fzoid4454]

A fight that he completely dominated.... except for when he was getting dropped and rocked by a tomato can lmao

Yes, the fight that he dominated except for a five second sequence where he got tagged and immediately bounced right back up and hurt the other guy.

"Tuivasa landed one solid shot and didn't get owned for 10 seconds out of a fight that lasted 525 seconds. Clearly Gane didn't dominate."

I mean, I get that Sherdog has a reputation for stupid meathead posts, but are you serious?

 

[fzoid4454]

What's funny is this exact scenario played out the same way with Ngannou and Stipe. Ngannou got absolutely manhandled via wrestling in their first fight, and a lot of people wrote off that he'd ever be able to beat Stipe or win the title because he had no wrestling. Then Ngannou went back, completely changed his ground game and TDD, and became a much better fighter. I'm not saying Gane is going to do this at all. I tend to think he hasn't taken the time to improve like Ngannou did (as his more recent fights have shown). But anyone writing him off is crazy because HW is unpredictable. I mean, who else thought Ngannou would have a boring fight versus Lewis? Or Aspinall would blow his knee out against Blaydes? Or that JDS would KO Cain within the first minute? Or Cain manhandling Brock. etc. I still don't think there is enough fight footage to judge Aspinall yet. He hasn't even gone to the 3rd round in a fight.

Hell, I never thought that the way Ngannou would beat Gane would be by safety-first wrestle-fuck for a decision.

 

[Tweak896]

one of the variables people aren't talking about much is aspinall's gas tank, as in is it questionable. he has yet to fight past the 2nd round in his ufc career (and then only once), will be curious how he looks in championship rounds. if it suddenly shows up as a weakness gane could conceivably dance around and win a close decision. in fact, if i'm gane in this fight, that might be my strategy - try to survive the early rounds, tire him out and drag him into deep waters. don't know how else he wins really.

I know Aspinall has decent wrestling, but is it as great as everyone is sure of? He's taken down 3 guys....

Baudot- Taken down every fight besides his NC, never won a UFC fight.
Arlovski- Taken down by Tybura, Walt Harris, Collier. He was ancient and most guys stood with him and he only fought bottom of barrel besides Aspinall.
Volkov- Gane got him down rounds 1 and 2, while he was injured.

Aspinall has 100% takedown offense and 100% takedown defense, but I'm positive he hasn't proven his wrestling yet. I mean taking down Volkov is pretty much it. UK isn't known for wrestlers and he has no background in it. Everyone just refers to his size and athleticism.

Gane hasn't bounced back since his injury though, so who knows if we'll see the guy who was light on his feet and moving around. It's been since 2023 that we've seen Gane look light on his feet. Also fighters who lost their first 2 title fights, typically never win the 3rd. Still his striking defense has been perfect besides Tuivasa when he was putting on a show for France and fought a little more aggressive than usual, he won't be doing that. Also Ngannou who's been a wrestler in MMA since Stipe, Gane was able to stop him and evade takedown positions until the 3rd round.

Both guys have tons to prove, this fight could be different than expectations.

 

[Adamant]

Gane winning would actually be a relief because then all of the JJ/Aspinall hype would immediately die.

 

[kdday]

This is Tom's fight to lose, Gane couldn't hang on the ground with Ngannou, not to mention he wouldve won that fight if he didnt have the fight IQ of a door knob, I cant think of any other top 5 fighter that would be in top control in the last 2 minutes of round 5 in a 50-50 fight and jump back for a leg lock

 

[fedoriswar37]

Cyrillic catches tom diving in too confidently.

 

[Ibm]

Gane can win by almost anything. He hits very very hard although he doesn't choose to, His "keep a distance" strikes are very damaging if you look at his previous fights. If Gane comes in like he did against Tai and Derrick, he probably beats Tom. The matchup is so intriguing I cant wait.

 

[Captain Herb]

Bullshit that you call that a "flash knockdown where he bounces right back up". His legs are locked together as he falls, which anyone who knows anything at all about getting rocked knows means your brain switched off for a second. "Flash" knockdowns mean someone got clipped and go down, but clearly are never out even for a millisecond as they already look to be finding a way back up before they hit the ground. Gane goes down like a sack of bricks with his legs locked together and crashes back into the bottom of the cage without any cognizance to brace himself at all. No indication whatsoever he has his senses in that quick sequence.

To his credit, when he hits the cage he snaps back and gets his wits about him enough to start defending the follow up and he recovers quickly and goes on the offensive. That's extremely good recovery. But acting like he wasn't truly hurt in that exchange is bullshit.

And it isn't "cruising" to a win when that happens. It's great recovery. It's a definitive win, and shows good resilience.

Gane was cruising to a win until he got dropped and put into a position where, if the opponent had been quicker or if he hadn't recovered so fast, it would have been over. But he did recover without any extra damage and went on to win the fight. There's no case to summarize the fight as "He cruised to a win". Yes, he was cruising at one point and he did eventually win but he didn't just "cruise to a win", that's stupid.

 

[JBJ was here]

Hell, I never thought that the way Ngannou would beat Gane would be by safety-first wrestle-fuck for a decision.

Why not? It was his obvious path if you stop to think about it. Gane is fast on the feet (or at least was until the Volkov fight injury) with excellent striking defense and he's not particularly open to counterstriking, but he's easy to take down and wrestle-fuck. On the feet Ngannou shouldn't have been expected to manage any much more against Gane than he managed against Lewis or in Stipe I. Ngannou is, however, plenty big and strong to have a good chance of holding Gane down on the mat and managing enough offense while doing so to make a case for the win.

Remember, if he's not taking advantage of a defensive lapse with a quick counter, Ngannou's throwing slow, easy-to-avoid-or-mitigate strikes on the feet. The vast majority of HWs simply don't have the skill or discipline to defend well because the division royally sucks, so Ngannou does well on the feet until he encounters technical competence or another counterstriker.

 

[Captain Herb]

Why not? It was his obvious path if you stop to think about it. Gane is fast on the feet (or at least was until the Volkov fight injury) with excellent striking defense and he's not particularly open to counterstriking, but he's easy to take down and wrestle-fuck. On the feet Ngannou shouldn't have been expected to manage any much more against Gane than he managed against Lewis or in Stipe I. Ngannou is, however, plenty big and strong to have a good chance of holding Gane down on the mat and managing enough offense while doing so to make a case for the win.

Remember, if he's not taking advantage of a defensive lapse with a quick counter, Ngannou's throwing slow, easy-to-avoid-or-mitigate strikes on the feet. The vast majority of HWs simply don't have the skill or discipline to defend well because the division royally sucks, so Ngannou does well on the feet until he encounters technical competence or another counterstriker.

He has excellent defense until he doesn't. There was absolutely no excuse for leaving himself wide open and off-balance for a Tai Tuivasa counter, being a champion kickboxer and Tai having no TD threat. There was absolutely no excuse for throwing a lazy jab at Jon Jones and giving him a perfect entry, when the ground game was the only way Jon could win. It all comes down to laziness in his preparation and his mental attitude. Gane has shown no outward signs that he intends to to change this fatal flaw of his before fighting Tom and as long as Tom doesn't psyche himself out, he should easily win on mental and physical preparation alone.

 

[fzoid4454]

Why not? It was his obvious path if you stop to think about it. Gane is fast on the feet (or at least was until the Volkov fight injury) with excellent striking defense and he's not particularly open to counterstriking, but he's easy to take down and wrestle-fuck. On the feet Ngannou shouldn't have been expected to manage any much more against Gane than he managed against Lewis or in Stipe I. Ngannou is, however, plenty big and strong to have a good chance of holding Gane down on the mat and managing enough offense while doing so to make a case for the win.

Remember, if he's not taking advantage of a defensive lapse with a quick counter, Ngannou's throwing slow, easy-to-avoid-or-mitigate strikes on the feet. The vast majority of HWs simply don't have the skill or discipline to defend well because the division royally sucks, so Ngannou does well on the feet until he encounters technical competence or another counterstriker.

Ngannou, before that, was, 100%, take them out with raw brute force, and I didn't think he'd be the one to bail on standing and throwing strikes, is why.

I'm not saying it was a bad strategy. I think it's notable that a guy who's victories were all pretty much blasting out opponents with raw power would decide that standing and trading with Gane was something he wanted no part of.

 

[TheGreenMachine]

Ngannou, before that, was, 100%, take them out with raw brute force, and I didn't think he'd be the one to bail on standing and throwing strikes, is why.

I'm not saying it was a bad strategy. I think it's notable that a guy who's victories were all pretty much blasting out opponents with raw power would decide that standing and trading with Gane was something he wanted no part of.

Part of it could have been that they used to train together.

 

[SuperAlly]

I know Aspinall has decent wrestling, but is it as great as everyone is sure of? He's taken down 3 guys....

Baudot- Taken down every fight besides his NC, never won a UFC fight.
Arlovski- Taken down by Tybura, Walt Harris, Collier. He was ancient and most guys stood with him and he only fought bottom of barrel besides Aspinall.
Volkov- Gane got him down rounds 1 and 2, while he was injured.

Aspinall has 100% takedown offense and 100% takedown defense, but I'm positive he hasn't proven his wrestling yet. I mean taking down Volkov is pretty much it. UK isn't known for wrestlers and he has no background in it. Everyone just refers to his size and athleticism.

Gane hasn't bounced back since his injury though, so who knows if we'll see the guy who was light on his feet and moving around. It's been since 2023 that we've seen Gane look light on his feet. Also fighters who lost their first 2 title fights, typically never win the 3rd. Still his striking defense has been perfect besides Tuivasa when he was putting on a show for France and fought a little more aggressive than usual, he won't be doing that. Also Ngannou who's been a wrestler in MMA since Stipe, Gane was able to stop him and evade takedown positions until the 3rd round.

Both guys have tons to prove, this fight could be different than expectations.

Not much opportunity to take people down when they're unconscious on their arse after a minute

 

[SuperAlly]

Gane was cruising to a win until he got dropped and put into a position where, if the opponent had been quicker or if he hadn't recovered so fast, it would have been over. But he did recover without any extra damage and went on to win the fight. There's no case to summarize the fight as "He cruised to a win". Yes, he was cruising at one point and he did eventually win but he didn't just "cruise to a win", that's stupid.

If you are one punch or 1 second away from being knocked the fuck out you aren't cruising to anything

Credit for coming through the adversity but some people (not you) are just belligerent to the point of stupidity