Francis Ngannou (prime) vs Tom Aspinall

[CatchtheseHands]

Well, it's a moot point because Ngannou is gone and will no longer be fighting real competition

And Tom will be? Outside of Almeida, Gane, Blaydes, Volkov and Pav the HW division is ass and is comparable to the quality of fighter you'd see in PFL or any other org.

 

[mkess101]

There is but there's no evidence of the knees compromising Francis' performance..

Edit: Also Francis does not have the blitzing style of Tom so repaired knee's likely will not affect him as he gets older unlike it will Tom. Tom relies on his blitz, as he gets older the knee will start affecting his blitz..

Tom can blitz, that doesn't mean he relies on it. At all. I mean, just look at his last 2 fights. KO wins that weren't blitzing at all.

He hits Pav with a 1-2 from the outside, Pav fires back and Tom lands a clean counter that effectively ends the fight. Then Blaydes throws and Tom counters with a big right hand over the top and Blaydes crumbles.

What people (somehow still) don't realize is that HW's just aren't used to Tom's ability to react and counter with ridiculous handspeed for a HW. Guys throw punches that they can normally easily slide back out of range on and against Aspinall his counter is there faster than they've seen from anyone else and then they're on queer street.

I'd never count out prime Ngannou, obviously dude was a beast but timing, speed, and accuracy matter more than raw power. Especially when the faster and more accurate guy still has plenty of power to KO anyone put in front of him. At even odds, I'd absolutely be betting Tom.

 

[Ares Black]

And Tom will be? Outside of Almeida, Gane, Blaydes, Volkov and Pav the HW division is ass and is comparable to the quality of fighter you'd see in PFL or any other org.

Aspinall will be fighting the number one contender.

Ngannou wil be fighting whoever they can find.

 

[CatchtheseHands]

Tom can blitz, that doesn't mean he relies on it. At all. I mean, just look at his last 2 fights. KO wins that weren't blitzing at all.

He hits Pav with a 1-2 from the outside, Pav fires back and Tom lands a clean counter that effectively ends the fight. Then Blaydes throws and Tom counters with a big right hand over the top and Blaydes crumbles.

What people (somehow still) don't realize is that HW's just aren't used to Tom's ability to react and counter with ridiculous handspeed for a HW. Guys throw punches that they can normally easily slide back out of range on and against Aspinall his counter is there faster than they've seen from anyone else and then they're on queer street.

I'd never count out prime Ngannou, obviously dude was a beast but timing, speed, and accuracy matter more than raw power. Especially when the faster and more accurate guy still has plenty of power to KO anyone put in front of him. At even odds, I'd absolutely be betting Tom.

Hmm valid point about Tom but I don't agree with Francis just being raw power. He has great timing and accuracy, albeit not like Tom but still very good. Francis KO of Reem and Stipe is a good example of this.

Aspinall will be fighting the number one contender.

Ngannou wil be fighting whoever they can find.

The number one contender who is? Gane? The guy Francis already beat, Volkov? A guy Tom already beat, Almeida? The guy who was finished by the guy (Blaydes) Tom and Francis both already destroyed? The reality is after the Gane, possibly Jon and Almeida fight happen, Tom is going to be fighting whoever they can find just like Francis will be. HW is not a deep division regardless of org. Let's not act as if the UFC has a bunch of Curtis Blaydes on stand by for Tom to fight or something after Tom fights the rest of the top guys.

 

[Ares Black]

Hmm valid point about Tom but I don't agree with Francis just being raw power. He has great timing and accuracy, albeit not like Tom but still very good. Francis KO of Reem and Stipe is a good example of this.


The number one contender who is? Gane? The guy Francis already beat, Volkov? A guy Tom already beat, Almeida? The guy who was finished by the guy (Blaydes) Tom and Francis both already destroyed? The reality is after the Gane, possibly Jon and Almeida fight happen, Tom is going to be fighting whoever they can find just like Francis will be. HW is not a deep division.

The number one contender is Jon Jones IMO

 

[CatchtheseHands]

The number one contender is Jon Jones IMO

Yeah and that's the ONLY fight for Tom that is in the slightest exciting in the UFC. Yeah Almeida could be interesting but he's likely getting put to sleep and Gane would be fun while it was standing but he's likely going to get subbed while attempting one of his famous heel hooks.

 

[JKS]

Aspinal wins this. More speed and accuracy, better movement and angles. Fight goes like Pavlovich, I think Aspinal get the KO here.

 

[shunyata]

Ngannou might still be in his prime.

I know his last opponent was not great but neither was Jones last opponent.

And Francis dominated his opponent more.

My money would be on Ngannou.

Yeah I'd still like to see the fight now.

 

[Dailo]

Francis by murder

 

[Thick_Strong_Tight]

I consider prime Ngannou as the one who beat Stipe Miocic, 2021 iirc.

How do you think it'd go against current Tom Aspinall?

My prediction is one of them would be KO'd in the first round or second round lulz... I don't see it going the distance.

Hard to say, Aspinall has only had relatively short in-cage time, he looks capable against the competition he has faced. I'd favor almost any good grappler over Frank after having seen a slightly younger Stipe work him over, I don't believe he has materially improved since then, Stipe was older in the second fight and got caught, mostly.

 

[Ares Black]

Yeah and that's the ONLY fight for Tom that is in the slightest exciting in the UFC. Yeah Almeida could be interesting but he's likely getting put to sleep and Gane would be fun while it was standing but he's likely going to get subbed while attempting one of his famous heel hooks.

Oh are there lots of exciting fights outside of the UFC for him?

 

[CatchtheseHands]

Oh are there lots of exciting fights outside of the UFC for him?

Of course not. Francis is the only one but my point is not that there are tons of other exciting fights for Tom outside of the UFC (there isn't except for the one in discussion) but that outside of the top 5 in the UFC the rest of the division is no different than anyone you'd find in the PFL, ONE or anywhere else.

 

[icemun]

Lol who has Aspinall beat? The almighty Pavlovich who had already been destroyed by old man Reem? Or Blaydes whose been KOd in every big moment of his career?

I get you guys want Jones to lose so you’ve created this imaginary unstoppable world beater in Aspinall to give you guys hope but he’s not that guy, it wouldn’t even be competitive, the best version of Ngannou would send him to the astral plane.

tom IS that guy Sherbro.

so when the fight happens, he WONT BE as soon as he loses.

 

[Ares Black]

Of course not. Francis is the only one but my point is not that there are tons of other exciting fights for Tom outside of the UFC (there isn't except for the one in discussion) but that outside of the top 5 in the UFC the rest of the division is no different than anyone you'd find in the PFL, ONE or anywhere else.

I simply don't agree with this

 

[Subline]

Tom has some poor defensive tendencies, I think Francis would catch him.

 

[Luffy]

I always love it when a fighters "prime" is reduced to one fight. As if the concept of "prime" could be reduced to one singular moment.

Ngannou was (maybe is) great, but in instance of his fights vs Stipe, you can't just choose to perceive his first fight vs Stipe as Ngannou being "not in his prime" cuz he lost, and then "in his prime" the second time cuz he won.

That's not how shit works.

Ngannou lost in his prime, he won in his prime. He's definitely one of the most devastating punchers to ever step into the Octagon - but he lost vs Stipe and Lewis in his prime.

And he beat Stipe, when Stipe was out of his prime.

No, Ngannou definitely was better in the 2nd match up vs Stipe. That clearly marked a big development in his fighting skills. He studied the first fight a lot, him and his team, as reported... Worked on his takedown defense a lot, which shows with how well he stopped those — DC even commented how Ngannou's takedown defense and grappling accuracy was way more polished... And Ngannou adopted a way more strategic striking. In the first Miocic fight, he was rushing, got gassed out quickly. He had changed coaches by then and had a calmer, more precise and accurate timing with the punches. The improvements were clearly noted by the fighters, the coaches, the analysts and the commentators. Ngannou improved his wrestling a lot as well as his striking. There was a clear improvement, hence, that was prime, or closer to prime, Ngannou than in the first fight.

 

[Luffy]

I see Aspinall vs N'Gannou as kinda 50/50. N'Gannou didn't have a lot of high level wins but he slaughtered Blaydes twice and beat Stipe in a rematch but beyond that? He mostly fought guys badly out of their primes (Arlovski, JDS, Cain) or just straight up low level guys. Beyond that he barely scraped by Gane and lost to Lewis. Even when he beat Stipe in the rematch, it was damaged goods...Stipe had been knocked out by Cormier and then they had two subsequent wars to wrap up the trilogy...Stipe pushing 40, had gotten knocked out and then rocked several times in 4 and 5 round wars leading up to the N'Gannou rematch.

Aspinalls resume is similar...he smashed Blaydes, Volkov and Pavlovitch but his run isn't a deep one either. Both guys merit is largely based off their massive athleticism at a weightclass that seriously lacks it. Aspinall is more multifaceted but we really don't have much to go off of to compare the two, neither guy has the best defense and I cant recall seeing either fella rocked in MMA?

Aspinall really needs the Jones fight to credif his legacy. Otherwise he's going to beat Gane and then what? Anyways it feels a little 50/50 to me.

Well... He beat up Blaydes and Arlovski before Aspinall did... Blaydes and Arlovski were younger when Ngannou fought them, and Ngannou had yet to get better as he did in the second match vs Miocic. Still, he beat up younger and fresher versions of Curtis and Arlovski, both in the first round. Aspinall beat Blaydes as quickly as Ngannou, but he needed to go for a takedown to beat Arlovski, as he was getting troubled and even out striked in the feed by an older version of Arlovski... Whereas, the Ngannou who had yet to develop better skills as he hadn't lost to Miocic, beat up Arlovski in the first round.

 

[JBJ was here]

No, Ngannou definitely was better in the 2nd match up vs Stipe.

Whether or not it's true - it isn't - this is a statement impossible to provide evidence for. The Stipe of the second Ngannou fight was definitively not the Stipe of the first Ngannou fight, not even close, not even a million miles away, but in a completely different universe. The Stipe of the second Ngannou fight had no knees and was completely done as an MMA fighter even if he was champion, and anyone who watched him hobble about kneeless being a punching bag for DC knows this. Stipe may have won the last two fights with DC but in terms of their bodies breaking down he was a 60 year old man beating a Social Security recipient in those fights. Ngannou beat a Stipe who had no movement, no wrestling, depleted power, and a leaky gas tank.

 

[Luffy]

I mean, look at the guys Ngannou beat up... Ppl talk about JJ beating a Stipe Miocic who suffered a brutal KO loss from Ngannou. Why don't ppl talk about Aspinall beating up an Arlovski who also suffered a brutal KO loss to Ngannou? Why don't they talk about Aspinall beating up a Curtis Blaydes who had suffered 2 (TWO) KO losses to Ngannou already? Guys, let's be objective and unbiased in our assessments... Double standards does nothing good...

 

[Luffy]

Whether or not it's true - it isn't - this is a statement impossible to provide evidence for. The Stipe of the second Ngannou fight was definitively not the Stipe of the first Ngannou fight, not even close, not even a million miles away, but in a completely different universe. The Stipe of the second Ngannou fight had no knees and was completely done as an MMA fighter even if he was champion, and anyone who watched him hobble about kneeless being a punching bag for DC knows this. Stipe may have won the last two fights with DC but in terms of their bodies breaking down he was a 60 year old man beating a Social Security recipient in those fights. Ngannou beat a Stipe who had no movement, no wrestling, depleted power, and a leaky gas tank.

It is true. Miocic got older and worse, but Ngannou improved. Both can be true at the same time. Analysts at that time, famous coaches like Eric Nickson, DC... They have all commented that Ngannou looked sharper in all aspects. There are also comprehensive analysis from Luke Thomas comparing how Ngannou significantly improved himself, from striking accuracy, to timing, to takedown defense... It isn't based solely around Miocic getting old, but all the way Ngannou reacted to certain movements, cage movement, patience, punching motion (which became way more polished compared to the wild way he'd swing before). It is not a no basis statement, it is a statement provided by all fighters who commented on Ngannou, as well as all analysts...

Miocic wasn't the same, but Stipe wasn't the only one getting older, Ngannou was getting older too. But his takedown defense and approach to the fight was better independently of Stipe getting older... Ngannou was 35 years old and Stipe was 38... In the first fight, Stipe was 35 and Ngannou, 32. Ngannou got better.