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Tom is the more dangerous fight. Alex is the more exciting, dramatic one you can build a story around.
I vote Alex. Better story for the last fight in an all time greats career. And think about it if Alex beats him.. that would be massive
Personally, I find the idea of Jon vs plausibly his hardest match up ever more exciting, than Jon vs a guy who he should be a massive favorite over.
Also, I find Aspinall more exciting than Pereira, because Aspinall is exciting in all 3 dimensions of MMA and Pereira in only one of them.