Forecasting the race for the House

How the House has swung historically
"Our forecasted seat breakdown in the House for 2018 and the change in the breakdown for every House election since 1924"
Screenshot_20180817-111042_Brave.jpg


That's a whole lotta buyer's remorse the last 2 decades. The GOP has done a good job of tricking Americans into drinking their kool aid as of late. Probably the same flavor being sold just before the Great Depression.
 
Truth said:
I don't think they will.

As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.
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Bwahahahaha. As long as Trump is running the republican party the repubs have NO CHANCE at least in the house
 
I really have no idea but I think polls are of limited usefulness because many will be Trump voters simply wont say in public for fear of retribution even from spouses etc.
 
Kindacrazy said:
I really have no idea but I think polls are of limited usefulness because many will be Trump voters simply wont say in public for fear of retribution even from spouses etc.
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It's kind of like when a pollster asks about firearms. Many will take the perspective that it's no one else's business but their own.

In this instance, rather than it being an issue of privacy, many who support president Trump do so secretly so as to not attract the mob of the violent and feral left.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Want to bet that the GOP doesn't pick up seats in the House?



I think there's roughly a 75% chance that God will intervene and give Democrats control of the House, both for the good of the nation and to send a message about the GOP's taking of a false idol in Trump and tainting their souls with support for such an immoral man. And the odds that God will see fit to send that same message by increasing the Democratic share of the House are much higher than 3-1.
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Jack.. I love you (no homo)... but..do you think you could, like, not predict things? Thnx.
 
It should be easy for the D's, but never underestimate the stupidity of the Dems and voters.
 
Kindacrazy said:
I really have no idea but I think polls are of limited usefulness because many will be Trump voters simply wont say in public for fear of retribution even from spouses etc.
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I'm glad I married a girl who voted Trump
 
zebby23 said:
Bwahahahaha. As long as Trump is running the republican party the repubs have NO CHANCE at least in the house
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You are going to cry so hard when Republicans run the House, Senate, The Court, and then probably never recover after 2020
 
ocean size said:
fivethirtyeight forecasts a 7 in 10 chance the blue wave will take back the house. What say you sherdog?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe

inb4 polls don't work anymore

Also I just noticed 'Trump as 2020 GOP nominee' is trading on predictit.org at something like 65 cents on the dollar. If you are certain he isn't going anywhere, that is basically an 50% payoff on your money in a year
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You have to look district-by-district, and assess each race on its own merits. You also have to pretty much ignore the generic congressional ballot and Trump approval rating, unless it's a poll of the district you're looking at.

I actually did all this a while back. I looked at each district, examined polling in light of 2016 results, and made predictions for each race using the following objective criteria:

· Clinton won & no Incumbent running? → Democrat
· Trump won by >5% & no Incumbent running? → Republican
· Trump won by <5% & no Incumbent running? → Democrat
· Clinton won & Republican Incumbent's margin >5% over Clinton's? → Republican
· Clinton won & Republican Incumbent's margin <5% over Clinton's? → Democrat
· Trump won by >5% & Republican Incumbent's margin ≥ to Trump's? → Republican
· Trump won by <5% & Republican Incumbent's margin < 3% over Trump's? → Democrat
· Trump won by <5% & Republican Incumbent's margin > 3% over Trump's? → Republican

I generally gave the benefit of the doubt to Dems in my analysis, just to be safe. What I discovered is that Dems would need to run the table of winnable seats to eke out a majority (they can perhaps afford to lose one or two competitive races). But there is almost no margin for error. If Republicans split those legitimately competitive house races 30% to 70% in Dems' favor, Republicans would keep the House by non-negligible margin (about 5 to 7 seats IIRC). My "Dems on a good day" baseline predictions were pretty similar to the forecasts on Inside Elections's 2018 House Midterm Elections map (202 Dem, 14 toss-up, 219 Republican).

However, if Republicans split legitimately competitive races with Dems 50 / 50, then the Republicans' margin improves to about 13 to 15 seats. That would be viewed as a major disappointment for Dems. Obviously if Republicans do better than that, it will be billed as an absolute disaster for Dems.

So, the proper question is this: What are the chances Democrats win 95%+ of competitive House races?
I'd say Dems have about a 0% chance of that. They haven't been winning these national special elections (only 2 of 9), when Republicans were least attentive and most vulnerable. How are they going to win in places like Kansas, Kentucky, and Iowa when Republicans are getting psyched up for another "Super Tuesday" event? They're going to blow at least some of these races, and probably many more.

Realistic Probability Dems Retake House in 2018: 0.00%
 
Jack V Savage said:
Want to bet that the GOP doesn't pick up seats in the House?



I think there's roughly a 75% chance that God will intervene and give Democrats control of the House, both for the good of the nation and to send a message about the GOP's taking of a false idol in Trump and tainting their souls with support for such an immoral man. And the odds that God will see fit to send that same message by increasing the Democratic share of the House are much higher than 3-1.
Click to expand...

Prepare to lose your religion

giphy.gif
 
Truth said:
I don't think they will.

As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.
Click to expand...

Even with the shittiest candidate in easily 50 years, they still won the popular vote. You make it sound like there's a majority united behind Trump, when there isn't. There's a better chance that the Dems will take the house, than the GOP keeping it, it's pretty hard to argue with that considering recent events (e.g. win in Alabama, extremely close result in Ohio, etc.).
 
Truth said:
I don't think they will.

As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.
Click to expand...

This. It’s gonna be a while before the left understands what it’s lacking is patriotism. Once it goes back to the days of a little bit of American pride then we can talk about winning elections. As of now...I predicted trump would win in 2015 and I was laughed at. I am very confident he will win 2020
 
Grenz said:
Even with the shittiest candidate in easily 50 years, they still won the popular vote. You make it sound like there's a majority united behind Trump, when there isn't. There's a better chance that the Dems will take the house, than the GOP keeping it, it's pretty hard to argue with that considering recent events (e.g. win in Alabama, extremely close result in Ohio, etc.).
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We'll find out.
 
JamesRussler said:
You have to look district-by-district, and assess each race on its own merits. You also have to pretty much ignore the generic congressional ballot and Trump approval rating, unless it's a poll of the district you're looking at.

I actually did all this a while back. I looked at each district, examined polling in light of 2016 results, and made predictions for each race using the following objective criteria:

· Clinton won & no Incumbent running? → Democrat
· Trump won by >5% & no Incumbent running? → Republican
· Trump won by <5% & no Incumbent running? → Democrat
· Clinton won & Republican Incumbent's margin >5% over Clinton's? → Republican
· Clinton won & Republican Incumbent's margin <5% over Clinton's? → Democrat
· Trump won by >5% & Republican Incumbent's margin ≥ to Trump's? → Republican
· Trump won by <5% & Republican Incumbent's margin < 3% over Trump's? → Democrat
· Trump won by <5% & Republican Incumbent's margin > 3% over Trump's? → Republican

I generally gave the benefit of the doubt to Dems in my analysis, just to be safe. What I discovered is that Dems would need to run the table of winnable seats to eke out a majority (they can perhaps afford to lose one or two competitive races). But there is almost no margin for error. If Republicans split those legitimately competitive house races 30% to 70% in Dems' favor, Republicans would keep the House by non-negligible margin (about 5 to 7 seats IIRC). My "Dems on a good day" baseline predictions were pretty similar to the forecasts on Inside Elections's 2018 House Midterm Elections map (202 Dem, 14 toss-up, 219 Republican).

However, if Republicans split legitimately competitive races with Dems 50 / 50, then the Republicans' margin improves to about 13 to 15 seats. That would be viewed as a major disappointment for Dems. Obviously if Republicans do better than that, it will be billed as an absolute disaster for Dems.

So, the proper question is this: What are the chances Democrats win 95%+ of competitive House races?
I'd say Dems have about a 0% chance of that. They haven't been winning these national special elections (only 2 of 9), when Republicans were least attentive and most vulnerable. How are they going to win in places like Kansas, Kentucky, and Iowa when Republicans are getting psyched up for another "Super Tuesday" event? They're going to blow at least some of these races, and probably many more.

Realistic Probability Dems Retake House in 2018: 0.00%
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So where did five thirty-eight go wrong since they did the same analysis as you?
 
BoxingFan653 said:
This. It’s gonna be a while before the left understands what it’s lacking is patriotism. Once it goes back to the days of a little bit of American pride then we can talk about winning elections. As of now...I predicted trump would win in 2015 and I was laughed at. I am very confident he will win 2020
Click to expand...
Like
 
It will be largely uneventful, with the Dems grabbing a few seats. Doubt they flip the House.
 
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