Forecasting the race for the House

[ocean size]

fivethirtyeight forecasts a 7 in 10 chance the blue wave will take back the house. What say you sherdog?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe

inb4 polls don't work anymore

Also I just noticed 'Trump as 2020 GOP nominee' is trading on predictit.org at something like 65 cents on the dollar. If you are certain he isn't going anywhere, that is basically an 50% payoff on your money in a year

 

[exHeavyHippie]

What say you sherdog?

Likely

 

[Hognoxious]

Omarosa said this as well.....It must be true.

 

[ocean size]

Omarosa said this as well.....It must be true.

Weak post.

 

[Rygu]

Are we back to 2 genders yet Dems? No? Then I'm afraid the red wave will continue.

 

[luckyshot]

We’ll see. In a world where, unfortunately, so many people are so easily swayed by the very last thing they hear before voting, polls this far out are not very useful.

To be clear, I like five thirty eight and think they are very accurate... but a lot can change in three months.

 

[Damien Karras]

Are we back to 2 genders yet Dems? No? Then I'm afraid the red wave will continue.

Yes, clearly the the transgender issue is the main concern of the average voter

 

[Rygu]

Yes, clearly the the transgender issue is the main concern of the average voter

No more like it represents their flawed mindset as a whole.

 

[Damien Karras]

No more like it represents their flawed mindset as a whole.

What can go wrong when generalizing an entire group off of one assumption?

 

[Ripskater]

I don't think they will.

As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.

 

[SammyPops]

Are we back to 2 genders yet Dems? No? Then I'm afraid the red wave will continue.

So the LGBTQ issue is that important to you?

 

[Rygu]

So the LGBTQ issue is that important to you?

It was a blanket statement, and was part satire.

It represents how Democrats care about feelings over shit that actually matters.

 

[cincymma79]

It happens every presidency so I’d say yes

But they are trying as hard as they can to lose

 

[Jack V Savage]

Are we back to 2 genders yet Dems? No? Then I'm afraid the red wave will continue.

Want to bet that the GOP doesn't pick up seats in the House?

I don't think they will.

As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.

I think there's roughly a 75% chance that God will intervene and give Democrats control of the House, both for the good of the nation and to send a message about the GOP's taking of a false idol in Trump and tainting their souls with support for such an immoral man. And the odds that God will see fit to send that same message by increasing the Democratic share of the House are much higher than 3-1.

 

[Big Nasty Edison]

I don't think they will.

As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.

As long as there are millions of voters like you who don't understand any topic at all then the GOP will stay in power.

 

[Fawlty]

~75% feels right.

That doesn't give me the warm fuzzies though. 25% is a really big percentage, and voter turnout is a swingy factor. Also, we don't know what's up the sleeves of the voter suppression movement this time.

 

[Farmer Br0wn]

The Republicans are likely going to hang on to the House by the hairs of their chinny chin chin. No thanks to cut and run cowards like Paul Ryan.

The Republicans are likely going to pick up seats in the Senate.

Polls this early out are a poor predictor. Polls at this stage of the election serve the purpose of trying to demoralize political opposition.

Who remembers the BS polls about Hillary Clinton being 10 points ahead in the election as late as October 2016?

 

[Ripskater]

The Republicans are likely going to hang on to the House by the hairs of their chinny chin chin. No thanks to cut and run cowards like Paul Ryan.

The Republicans are likely going to pick up seats in the Senate.

Polls this early out or a poor predictor. Polls at this stage of the election serve the purpose of trying to demoralize political opposition.

Who remembers the BS polls about Hillary Clinton being 10 points ahead in the election as late as October 2016?

I remember watching videos of election night. "Hillary has a 92% chance on winning the election tonight"

And it was over pretty fast.

 

[kpt018]

I remember watching videos of election night. "Hillary has a 92% chance on winning the election tonight"

And it was over pretty fast.

538 had her at about 65% right before election night.

 

[Ripskater]

538 had her at about 65% right before election night.

I guess they were much more accurate if they said that.