Forecasting the race for the House

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by ocean size, Aug 16, 2018.

  1. ocean size

    ocean size Black Belt

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    fivethirtyeight forecasts a 7 in 10 chance the blue wave will take back the house. What say you sherdog?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe

    inb4 polls don't work anymore

    Also I just noticed 'Trump as 2020 GOP nominee' is trading on predictit.org at something like 65 cents on the dollar. If you are certain he isn't going anywhere, that is basically an 50% payoff on your money in a year
     
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  2. exHeavyHippie

    exHeavyHippie Black Belt

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    Likely
     
  3. Hognoxious

    Hognoxious But you can call me Johnny Mac

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    Omarosa said this as well.....It must be true.
     
  4. ocean size

    ocean size Black Belt

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    Weak post.
     
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  5. Rygu

    Rygu R.I.P. Obie Platinum Member

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    Are we back to 2 genders yet Dems? No? Then I'm afraid the red wave will continue.
     
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  6. luckyshot

    luckyshot The ONLY iPotWR Platinum Member

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    We’ll see. In a world where, unfortunately, so many people are so easily swayed by the very last thing they hear before voting, polls this far out are not very useful.

    To be clear, I like five thirty eight and think they are very accurate... but a lot can change in three months.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2018
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  7. Damien Karras

    Damien Karras Mirabile dichtu, don't you agree?

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    Yes, clearly the the transgender issue is the main concern of the average voter
     
  8. Rygu

    Rygu R.I.P. Obie Platinum Member

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    No more like it represents their flawed mindset as a whole.
     
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  9. Damien Karras

    Damien Karras Mirabile dichtu, don't you agree?

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    What can go wrong when generalizing an entire group off of one assumption?
     
  10. Ripskater

    Ripskater Johnny Mac's friend Banned

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    I don't think they will.

    As long as the left is protesting the American flag, pledge of allegience, and suing Bakers for not baking transgender cakes, they're gonna have a tough time taking back anything.
     
  11. SammyPops

    SammyPops Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    So the LGBTQ issue is that important to you?
     
  12. Rygu

    Rygu R.I.P. Obie Platinum Member

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    It was a blanket statement, and was part satire.

    It represents how Democrats care about feelings over shit that actually matters.
     
  13. cincymma79

    cincymma79 Silver Belt

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    It happens every presidency so I’d say yes

    But they are trying as hard as they can to lose
     
  14. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Want to bet that the GOP doesn't pick up seats in the House?

    I think there's roughly a 75% chance that God will intervene and give Democrats control of the House, both for the good of the nation and to send a message about the GOP's taking of a false idol in Trump and tainting their souls with support for such an immoral man. And the odds that God will see fit to send that same message by increasing the Democratic share of the House are much higher than 3-1.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2018
  15. Edison Carasio

    Edison Carasio Excellence of execution belt

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    As long as there are millions of voters like you who don't understand any topic at all then the GOP will stay in power.
     
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  16. Fawlty

    Fawlty moist robot Yellow Card

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    ~75% feels right.

    That doesn't give me the warm fuzzies though. 25% is a really big percentage, and voter turnout is a swingy factor. Also, we don't know what's up the sleeves of the voter suppression movement this time.
     
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  17. Farmer Br0wn

    Farmer Br0wn Farmer Br0wn belt

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    The Republicans are likely going to hang on to the House by the hairs of their chinny chin chin. No thanks to cut and run cowards like Paul Ryan.

    The Republicans are likely going to pick up seats in the Senate.

    Polls this early out are a poor predictor. Polls at this stage of the election serve the purpose of trying to demoralize political opposition.

    Who remembers the BS polls about Hillary Clinton being 10 points ahead in the election as late as October 2016?
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2018
  18. Ripskater

    Ripskater Johnny Mac's friend Banned

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    I remember watching videos of election night. "Hillary has a 92% chance on winning the election tonight"

    And it was over pretty fast.
     
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  19. kpt018

    kpt018 Gold Belt

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    538 had her at about 65% right before election night.
     
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  20. Ripskater

    Ripskater Johnny Mac's friend Banned

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    I guess they were much more accurate if they said that.
     
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