Fluke victories = No such thing.

[SeattleFightFan]

the words "fluke" and "lucky" have been debated ad infinitum as long as i can remember.

ultimately it's a semantics debate, but if someone has a better word for this scenario:

what do you call it if someone does something that wouldn't or doesn't work 99 times out of a hundred, but it worked that one time?​

Randleman v CroCop I, Serra v GSP I, Coleman v Shogun I Chonan v Silva come to mind.

maybe there is no one word for it. but some choose to use the words "lucky" or "fluke" which really seems to offend others. which is what makes this a semantics debate at it's core.

either way i wouldn't use any of those words for JDS v Cain I. 2 guys threw, one connected. and often when 1 HW connects, the other gets hurt. no more, no less.

 

[arrmike]

You are wrong and right at the same time. A true "fluke victory" is extremely rare, but there are always outcomes of varying probability.

Any move or strategy a fighter attempts has a range of outcomes, and style or technique has it's own distribution of outcomes. By choosing between a very controlled methodical approach or an aggressive high risk approach, you can adjust the distribution of probabilities.

some times outcomes of very low probability happen.
The odds of Shogun breaking his arm on a standard double is low probability
The odds of Manvil Gamburyan dislocating his should on a typical shot is low probability.
The odds of a Matt Sera overwhelming GSP with strikes is very low probability.

I think intent makes a difference. Coleman wasn't trying to break Shogun's arm. Vitor wasn't trying to nick Randy's eyelid. Serra was trying to hit GSP in the head.

And yet, for Shogun, there's a reason that posting an arm like that is frowned upon when you are learning grappling...

 

[mmass]

I think this is what people mean...

You could look this up statistically.

How many quick KOs have been repeated in a rematch?

If I went in the ring with JDS I'd last 5 seconds. If I tried again I'd probably last the same. And the next time.

When people said the result was a fluke I think they meant the didn't see it being repeated and of course some people were proved right.

Same with the Serra/GSP thing.

 

[hockeytough]

If two fighters fight an infinite amount of times, eventually the weaker fighter will win.

In some cases fighters are fairly evenly matched and might each win close to 50% of the time.

If you are in a situation where one fighter will beat another fighter 9 out of 10 times, but on that night happens to be the 1 time the weaker fighter wins, I think that's a fluke.

In hold'em, AA will lose to 72 off suit about 1 out of 10 times. When 72 wins, it is a fluke, but it will happen.

 

[johnyboy]

A fluke victory would be if a fighter sliped on the mat and ko'ed themself.

 

[R Palhares]

GSP took serra very lightly and got what was coming to him, that was no fluke.

^ This is what I have to say to all of you who mention the Serra-GSP fight.

If you leave an opening that the opponent capitalizes on, who is the better fighter? The guy who dominates for 5 rds, but is unable to finish, or the guy who finds an opening in a matter of a minute? The better fighter is the one who wins on that very night.

The better man wins each time, but being more well-rounded doesn't mean it is a given you WILL win 9/10 times. If you leave openings and the opp. capitalizes, that doesn't mean you are the better fighter. That is my point.

I don't believe in luck all that much, but sure, I can agree to an extent on that being a factor. Like all the fighters say: ''That's what makes this sport so great. Anything can happen.''

 

[johnyboy]

Serra vs gsp was not a fluke serra threw a punch aimed at gsp and it conected.

 

[Sally Davis]

After Velasquez' domination over JDS this weekend, I have seen so many refer to their first fight as a fluke victory. This makes me think.. There is no such thing as a lucky punch if you really think about it.

Cain's injuries in the previous fight had absolutely nothing to do with JDS hitting a punch he throws often. It had nothing to do with his ability to take a punch. It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did. Same goes for the Russow-Duffe fight.

So many say Duffee would win again because of how he dominated him, but really? Russow took all the damage and then landed a violent punch, intended to hurt. It wasn't just something he threw randomly. You throw every punch with intentions to damage your opp, or score points. That punch was clearly meant with bad intentions. So, does the domination make Duffee a better fighter? Maybe..

It could be that the better fighter won on the specific nights in the examples mentioned above. Or it could be that specific qualities in those fighters shined on those very nights. Russow showed his durability and power, JDS showed his speed and power. Cain showed his relentless pace. Point is, there are no lucky shots or victories. It's all about what you put out there, and what openings you capitalize on. If you leave openings like in these examples, you obviously have holes that need to be covered, that hinder you from being the better fighter.

Discuss.

I'm no rocket scientist, but I'm pretty sure having a jacked up knee would effect your movement and ability to move in and out as quickly as you can. So I would say yes, it could have had an effect on why he got hit the first time around. Also, having a bad knee makes it really hard to wrestle which is probably why he wasn't able to implement his gameplan so well the first time around. I'm not trying to make any excuses for him because JDS always has the chance of landing that one punch knockout, but all I'm saying is I believe having a bad knee really did have an effect on Cain's movement as well as his gameplan in the first fight.

 

[johnyboy]

Canucks and their white tanks haha

wearing one right now haha

 

[SnowBlynd]

It was what Jds was trying to do. It wasn't the.most likely thing to happen but it certainly wasn't the craziest thing to happen

 

[sauser]

It was an unlikely punch to connect. Overhands rarely land (do to many factors) which means the percentage of it happening make it flukey/lucky.

 

[MadTitan]

"Lucky Punch" is usually another way of saying "My favorite fighter has poor striking defense". When you fight a guy like JDS, it's common knowledge that one of the things necessary for victory is avoiding any clean punches, because he hits like a mule. Cain gets tagged a lot, and he fights at HW. It was inevitable that someone would KO him.

People always bring up the 1st Serra fight, but let's examine that. Since then, GSP has not been caught with a "lucky punch". Some other fighters seem to get hit with "lucky punches" every 3 or 4 fights. Is GSP just naturally luckier than these guys? Or could it be that he saw holes in his striking defense and improved them, while others didn't?

I will compare the 1st JDS-Cain fight to a potential bout between Silva and Bisping. Bisping is known for getting tagged a lot in his fights, and occasionally rocked. Anderson is known for being a very accurate striker who can potentially KO anybody. If Anderson catches Bisping in the 1st round and KOs him, how on earth would that be a fluke?

 

[let me bang bro**]

I agree, there is no such thing as a "lucky punch" (unless its a Leonard Garcia style haymaker)

 

[R Palhares]

"Lucky Punch" is usually another way of saying "My favorite fighter has poor striking defense". When you fight a guy like JDS, it's common knowledge that one of the things necessary for victory is avoiding any clean punches, because he hits like a mule. Cain gets tagged a lot, and he fights at HW. It was inevitable that someone would KO him.

People always bring up the 1st Serra fight, but let's examine that. Since then, GSP has not been caught with a "lucky punch". Some other fighters seem to get hit with "lucky punches" every 3 or 4 fights. Is GSP just naturally luckier than these guys? Or could it be that he saw holes in his striking defense and improved them, while others didn't?

I will compare the 1st JDS-Cain fight to a potential bout between Silva and Bisping. Bisping is known for getting tagged a lot in his fights, and occasionally rocked. Anderson is known for being a very accurate striker who can potentially KO anybody. If Anderson catches Bisping in the 1st round and KOs him, how on earth would that be a fluke?

THANK you. Finally someone that understands my point of view. Well put btw. I have been going on and on about ''inferior'' opps. capitalizing on holes the ''better fighter'' leaves, but no one seems to get the picture.

 

[GroundNPouter]

No one said luck. Fluke.

Fluke = low chance of happening.

There is a reason serra had those odds against GSP. If they fought everyday this year how many times can you ever see serra winning again even with that puncher's chance.

It was a combination of him throwing that punch and GSP not taking him seriously that lead to him having a shot of winning.

Not discrediting his win but it was clearly something that wouldn't happen in the future due to GSP's newfound play it safe with everyone mentality. Serra caught the intersection of GSP taking him lightly and a gameplan to exploit it. Now it doesn't matter what gameplan serra would have. It wouldn't ever materialize in a win.

 

[eworden78]

I think intent makes a difference. Coleman wasn't trying to break Shogun's arm. Vitor wasn't trying to nick Randy's eyelid. Serra was trying to hit GSP in the head.

And yet, for Shogun, there's a reason that posting an arm like that is frowned upon when you are learning grappling...

Agree and disagree.

Obviously, intent increases probability all things equal. But just because I try to win the lottery, and I don't try to get herpes, doesn't mean I'm less likely to get herpes.

There are too many variables that effect outcomes, to just focus on intent.

 

[Diet Otsuka]

Ludwigs ankle exploding when he got taken down by Salter, that's a fluke. An underdog winning? Not a fluke. Guy throwing a punch and hitting someone in the head? Not a fluke.

 

[JFRYE]

What if they fight a 3rd time and JDS wins does that make the 2nd fight a fluke.

 

[KickFromHell]

what about silva okami 1?

Whats Fluke about that? Silva did a move that was forbidden, lost by DQ. Same for Jones against Hamill, he did something that is forbidden to do, put his opponent to the shape that he cannot continue by those moves, so yeah, DQ was deserved.

Some victories are flukes though, in my opinion. Like freak accidents ie. Shogun vs Coleman 1 and Fedor vs TK 1, TK cut Fedor by elbow, which was illegal move, but it was tournament and they had to but TK to win so at least one of them could continue.

What if they fight a 3rd time and JDS wins does that make the 2nd fight a fluke.

No.

 

[R Palhares]

No one said luck. Fluke.

Fluke = low chance of happening.

There is a reason serra had those odds against GSP. If they fought everyday this year how many times can you ever see serra winning again even with that puncher's chance.

It was a combination of him throwing that punch and GSP not taking him seriously that lead to him having a shot of winning.

Not discrediting his win but it was clearly something that wouldn't happen in the future due to GSP's newfound play it safe with everyone mentality. Serra caught the intersection of GSP taking him lightly and a gameplan to exploit it. Now it doesn't matter what gameplan serra would have. It wouldn't ever materialize in a win.

But you're also not grasping my point. GSP improved, he covered his holes, meaning that Serra is very unlikely to capitalize on them. Velasquez still has bad striking defense. Same with Duffee. They haven't improved much in that aspect, and that's why luck has very little to do with it, it's more one fighter capitalizing on the others' weakness.