Fluke victories = No such thing.

if you aim to hit something, and you hit it...then it can't be considered a fluke.

i think that their first fight was a result of velasquez being too confident to stand and trade with jds, his injury, and jds landing where he intended to.

but i think that now, velasquez has, "figured jds out" so to speak...and i don't see jds landing a strong punch like that on velasquez again.


That's like saying a full-court shot isn't a fluke because someone "aimed"

Fluke has nothing to do with intent as someone else pointed out. It's the rate at which an action will occur. You will miss far more full court shots than you make. Even if you made on your first try. It's still a fluke.

People can't seem to grasp the concept of low probability in this thread.
 
All fights are flukes or none are. GSP shutting down Kos eye early, Condit bleeding early, all these could be considered flukish, like the first few punch that took Jds out of the fight.... Decisions are just as flukish as finishes.

That makes no sense. Some fights are flukes, though they are rare. It has to do with the odds of each outcome occuring. GSP earning decisions over people isn't a fluke. Shane Carwin knocking his opponents out in the first round isn't a fluke. Anderson Silva making his opponets look like fools isn't a fluke. Each of those have been able to repeat those outcomes multiple times.

Melvin Guillard being submitted by both Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller wasn't a fluke, since 9 of his 12 losses were submissions.

Matt Serra TKOing GSP was a fluke. The odds on that happening were remote. I doubt anyone except for maybe Matt Serra himself thought he could do what he did and I doubt there is a person around (including Matt Serra himself) that believes he could repeat that outcome. Hell, it was his first professional win via strikes (though he did take out Pete Spratt via strikes on TUF) and the first (and only) time GSP was stopped due to strikes.

GSP has gone on to fight more powerful, more technical strikers with many more knockouts on their record and has come out the other side pretty damn clean. Or do you think that, by virtue of being the one person to stop GSP with strikes, Matt Serra is the best striker in the UFC's welterweight division?
 
I agree...
the full-court shot is a good example

or if you see a hot chick out of your league and u try and score... the intent was there, and it's a one in 100 chance, but you just happened to be looking good, showcasing your humour and "Hitch" moves. Not a fluke, just good timing - right place, right time.
 
It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did.

So if I win 5 million in the lottery I'm not lucky because I intended on winning with the ticket I purchased?
 
There are lucky punches. Like in the NBA when a guy banks in a free throw, that was not what they were trying to do. JDS hit Cain in the ear with the palm of his thumb, it was a miss that still managed to hurt him.

Oh and I once in golf his a shot a mile over the green, it hit a tree and bounced 4 inches from the cup, not lucky at all!
 
It all depends on what you mean by 'fluke'. If by the term you mean that the winner of the fight was the one who would lose the majority of times, and so that the unlikely result obtained, then of course there are flukes. It's a probability game where if a fighter x wins 8/10 times against a fighter y, say, then if the first time they fight x happens to lose the fight one can say 'well, that was a flukey victory'; since the one who is overall superior and would win consistently lost. In this sense, it simply means an instance of the unlikely occurring. How we determine that such a thing happened is a different question.

Good examples are Coleman vs. Shogun, a freak injury which would likely not repeat themselves. But also fights like Randleman vs. Mirko, GSP vs. Serra, where one has good grounds to think the result was not representative of what happens most of the time. Whether Cain vs. JDS I was a fluke, is a different question: I think it was, but that's well besides the point.

If by fluke you mean that a fight can end with the unlikely winner achieving victory due to a non-intentional action, or accidents, then they also exist. Again, injuries happen all the time in odd occurrences. There are also fluke outcomes which nevertheless do not entail that the result itself was flukey, i.e. where HOW a fighter wins/loses is unlikely or odd, but the likely winner gets the win. A good example here is Barnett vs. Mirko I, where the former lost via freak injury, but upon further battles it was clear Mirko was the better guy.

So yeah, flukes do exist.
 
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I agree for the most part. But there are times when one fighter had a bad night for whatever reasons and ended up losing because of it.
 
The biggest "Fluke" victory would have to be Hughes over Newton.

Newton chokes Hughes out, hughes falls becasue he's out, and Newton lands on his head, they wake hughes up to tell him he won.

That's a fucking fluke, Jds koing Cain was not..
 
The biggest "Fluke" victory would have to be Hughes over Newton.

Newton chokes Hughes out, hughes falls becasue he's out, and Newton lands on his head, they wake hughes up to tell him he won.

That's a fucking fluke, Jds koing Cain was not..

10/10. Good call.
 
After Velasquez' domination over JDS this weekend, I have seen so many refer to their first fight as a fluke victory. This makes me think.. There is no such thing as a lucky punch if you really think about it.

Cain's injuries in the previous fight had absolutely nothing to do with JDS hitting a punch he throws often. It had nothing to do with his ability to take a punch. It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did. Same goes for the Russow-Duffe fight.

So many say Duffee would win again because of how he dominated him, but really? Russow took all the damage and then landed a violent punch, intended to hurt. It wasn't just something he threw randomly. You throw every punch with intentions to damage your opp, or score points. That punch was clearly meant with bad intentions. So, does the domination make Duffee a better fighter? Maybe..

It could be that the better fighter won on the specific nights in the examples mentioned above. Or it could be that specific qualities in those fighters shined on those very nights. Russow showed his durability and power, JDS showed his speed and power. Cain showed his relentless pace. Point is, there are no lucky shots or victories. It's all about what you put out there, and what openings you capitalize on. If you leave openings like in these examples, you obviously have holes that need to be covered, that hinder you from being the better fighter.

Discuss.

10/10

I have been saying it for a while. There is no such thing as luck or a fluke in mma.

Anybody that argues this does it to defend their favorite fighters by blaming their losses on something thats not real.
 
10/10

I have been saying it for a while. There is no such thing as luck or a fluke in mma.

Anybody that argues this does it to defend their favorite fighters by blaming their losses on something thats not real.

see my above post about an actual fluke win, I agree the JDS win wasn't a fluke but Hughes/Newton was for sure..
 
I think intent makes a difference. Coleman wasn't trying to break Shogun's arm. Vitor wasn't trying to nick Randy's eyelid. Serra was trying to hit GSP in the head.

And yet, for Shogun, there's a reason that posting an arm like that is frowned upon when you are learning grappling...

actually takedowns are done to get the fight down and also to inflict damage

shogun made a rookie mistake in defending the td and lost because of it.
 
The biggest "Fluke" victory would have to be Hughes over Newton.

Newton chokes Hughes out, hughes falls becasue he's out, and Newton lands on his head, they wake hughes up to tell him he won.

That's a fucking fluke, Jds koing Cain was not..

makes me think of what happened to gray maynard.

but i can argue the fact that being in that position creates the possibility of that happening so im not sure if it can be called a fluke since it was his choice to be in that position.
 
fluke victories do happen


tarver vs RJJ II

Chonnan vs SIlva

TK vs Fedor

etc
 
Fluke wins/lucky punches are myth. If you throw a punch/kick with the intent of hitting your opponent and you hit then, that is not luck.
 
And to everyone talking about low probability.

Fighters dont fight each other 100 times. so to say it wont happen again is something stupid to say.

It can not be proven. every fighter has a different unique set of skills and fighting style.

so to say the same thing wont happen again based on their other fights is an invalid argument even if they do fight 3 times.
 
Of course it can.

If I play the lottery one time and win, that's pretty flukey, but it's possible, and has happened.

a lottery is probably the best chance dos santos now has against velasquez, because cain proved that he is too quick and well rounded to be hit that strongly again...aside from that lottery chance you mentioned.
 
After Velasquez' domination over JDS this weekend, I have seen so many refer to their first fight as a fluke victory. This makes me think.. There is no such thing as a lucky punch if you really think about it.

Cain's injuries in the previous fight had absolutely nothing to do with JDS hitting a punch he throws often. It had nothing to do with his ability to take a punch. It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did. Same goes for the Russow-Duffe fight.

So many say Duffee would win again because of how he dominated him, but really? Russow took all the damage and then landed a violent punch, intended to hurt. It wasn't just something he threw randomly. You throw every punch with intentions to damage your opp, or score points. That punch was clearly meant with bad intentions. So, does the domination make Duffee a better fighter? Maybe..

It could be that the better fighter won on the specific nights in the examples mentioned above. Or it could be that specific qualities in those fighters shined on those very nights. Russow showed his durability and power, JDS showed his speed and power. Cain showed his relentless pace. Point is, there are no lucky shots or victories. It's all about what you put out there, and what openings you capitalize on. If you leave openings like in these examples, you obviously have holes that need to be covered, that hinder you from being the better fighter.

Discuss.

Do you think GSP had a hole in his striking game that allowed SERRA to knock him out? Or was it that GSP didn't take the fight seriously, underestimated Serra during the fight, and got hit with a lucky punch? I like both fighters a lot, and I applaud Serra for a Rocky like story, but he really just got a lucky punch in and capitalized. 99/100, GSP beats Serra.
 

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