1. The Sherdog Forums are currently experiencing technical difficulties, and we are working on it. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Fluke victories = No such thing.

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by R Palhares, Jan 2, 2013.

  1. R Palhares

    R Palhares Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2012
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    15
    After Velasquez' domination over JDS this weekend, I have seen so many refer to their first fight as a fluke victory. This makes me think.. There is no such thing as a lucky punch if you really think about it.

    Cain's injuries in the previous fight had absolutely nothing to do with JDS hitting a punch he throws often. It had nothing to do with his ability to take a punch. It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did. Same goes for the Russow-Duffe fight.

    So many say Duffee would win again because of how he dominated him, but really? Russow took all the damage and then landed a violent punch, intended to hurt. It wasn't just something he threw randomly. You throw every punch with intentions to damage your opp, or score points. That punch was clearly meant with bad intentions. So, does the domination make Duffee a better fighter? Maybe..

    It could be that the better fighter won on the specific nights in the examples mentioned above. Or it could be that specific qualities in those fighters shined on those very nights. Russow showed his durability and power, JDS showed his speed and power. Cain showed his relentless pace. Point is, there are no lucky shots or victories. It's all about what you put out there, and what openings you capitalize on. If you leave openings like in these examples, you obviously have holes that need to be covered, that hinder you from being the better fighter.

    Discuss.
     
  2. Blommen

    Blommen Purple Belt

    Joined:
    May 1, 2011
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Swinging merrily from Jose Aldos godlike testicles
    what about silva okami 1?
     
  3. Augustus Caesar

    Augustus Caesar Put Up Your Dukes Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2012
    Messages:
    18,980
    Likes Received:
    83,754
    Location:
    Fujisawa City, Japan
    Fluke victories happen, but I understand your POV.
     
  4. wlu29

    wlu29 Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2005
    Messages:
    19,697
    Likes Received:
    2,193
    ok, but there are victories that are very unlikely to be repeated
     
  5. Mavant

    Mavant Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    783
    Likes Received:
    104
    JJ versus Hamill is a fluke that will never happen again.
     
  6. Dempsey Roll

    Dempsey Roll °

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2007
    Messages:
    2,597
    Likes Received:
    8
    All fights are flukes or none are. GSP shutting down Kos eye early, Condit bleeding early, all these could be considered flukish, like the first few punch that took Jds out of the fight.... Decisions are just as flukish as finishes.
     
  7. rorydaboss

    rorydaboss Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2012
    Messages:
    3,889
    Likes Received:
    103
    Serra vs. GSP 1 was a fluke. GSP wins that fight 9 out of 10 times. We just saw the 1 out of 10 fight.
     
  8. Jae102

    Jae102 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2010
    Messages:
    2,315
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    California
    That's wasn't a fluke. Okami won by DQ.
     
  9. billyklubs

    billyklubs Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2008
    Messages:
    685
    Likes Received:
    18
    Location:
    Victoria, B.C
    Couldn't disagree more. Outclassed fighters have a a chance of getting that one punch in one hundred and knocking out their superior opponent sometimes. See Matt Serra vs GSP for an example, it's called a puncher's chance. Yes they have the intend to throw the shot and hurt their opponent but they had that intent with many other strikes as well, in some fights for the whole fight and then they land that one shot at the end and win.
     
  10. R Palhares

    R Palhares Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2012
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    15
    I'm not talking about those types of victories. I'm referring to punches where one fighter lands a so called ''lucky punch'', and if you look at my examples, that's very evident.
     
  11. GroundNPouter

    GroundNPouter You Mad?

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Messages:
    6,773
    Likes Received:
    370
    Location:
    B.R., Louisiana
    Definitely some fluke victories

    Serra vs GSP.
     
  12. Dempsey Roll

    Dempsey Roll °

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2007
    Messages:
    2,597
    Likes Received:
    8
    Why did gsp say he wasn't right at the time then? Maybe it was the most likely outcome given the circumstances actually.
     
  13. Malas

    Malas Sent via carrier pigeon

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    2,738
    Likes Received:
    6
    How could you call that a "fluke", as if it wouldn't happen again if AS had violated the rules again? That's almost the opposite.
     
  14. JPresz

    JPresz Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2008
    Messages:
    3,879
    Likes Received:
    0
    Technically you are right, but say I fought Cain and ko'd him. Sure I meant to ko him with that shot and I succeeded, but in no way does it mean I'm close to him in any sense of being a fighter. In the case with JDS and Cain, it wasn't a fluke.
     
  15. valkyrieX

    valkyrieX <img src="http://i62.tinypic.com/23wsl08.png">

    Joined:
    May 20, 2010
    Messages:
    10,090
    Likes Received:
    0
    I think your as bad as the people that say the first fight was a fluke.

    Its not black and white. There is luck involved in basically every fight and to deny that is silly. And some fights have more luck involved than other fights. I personally dont think the first JDS/Cain fight was a fluke. And all of the guys that say it was a fluke point to the 2nd fight which doesnt help their case at all because Cain fought very differently in the 2nd fight compared to the first.

    I think Cain lost the first fight simply because he didnt execute the perfect gameplan of rushing JDS the whole time and never letting JDS sit on his punches to land accurate and hard punches. He laid back a little and JDS capitalized like he did with all his previous opponents. In the rematch though, Cain was pushing a faster and more aggressive pace than he has ever done before and it worked out well for him.
     
  16. Saskatoonmike**

    Saskatoonmike** Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,772
    Likes Received:
    0
    PROBABILITY.

    People need to learn that word.

    it is not a fluke or luck when a punch lands. but the probability of Serra landing his big ko punch perfectly versus gsp might be one in ten fights. lucky for Serra he landed his one big non lucky punch in the first fight despite the small probability as he would not have got a second chance had he lost.
     
  17. arrmike

    arrmike Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2007
    Messages:
    4,311
    Likes Received:
    660
    Location:
    Pasadena
    The only fluke punch I know of is Vitor-Randy II.

    He didn't mean to nick Randy's eyelid with the edge of his glove.

    I've never seen it happen before or since, and considering Randy's domination in the 1st and 3rd fights, I think that if Vitor had actually landed that punch, Randy would have taken it and won regardless.
     
  18. arrmike

    arrmike Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2007
    Messages:
    4,311
    Likes Received:
    660
    Location:
    Pasadena
    Canucks and their white tanks haha
    [​IMG]
     
  19. eworden78

    eworden78 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2005
    Messages:
    10,101
    Likes Received:
    1,490
    Location:
    Sacto
    You are wrong and right at the same time. A true "fluke victory" is extremely rare, but there are always outcomes of varying probability.

    Any move or strategy a fighter attempts has a range of outcomes, and style or technique has it's own distribution of outcomes. By choosing between a very controlled methodical approach or an aggressive high risk approach, you can adjust the distribution of probabilities.

    some times outcomes of very low probability happen.
    The odds of Shogun breaking his arm on a standard double is low probability
    The odds of Manvil Gamburyan dislocating his should on a typical shot is low probability.
    The odds of a Matt Sera overwhelming GSP with strikes is very low probability.
     
  20. TheRassler

    TheRassler ---- L E G E N D A R Y --------- p4p GOAT poster

    Joined:
    May 1, 2010
    Messages:
    17,502
    Likes Received:
    21,212
    Location:
    #FreeNickDiaz

    GSP took serra very lightly and got what was coming to him, that was no fluke.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.