Fluke victories = No such thing.

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R Palhares

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After Velasquez' domination over JDS this weekend, I have seen so many refer to their first fight as a fluke victory. This makes me think.. There is no such thing as a lucky punch if you really think about it.

Cain's injuries in the previous fight had absolutely nothing to do with JDS hitting a punch he throws often. It had nothing to do with his ability to take a punch. It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did. Same goes for the Russow-Duffe fight.

So many say Duffee would win again because of how he dominated him, but really? Russow took all the damage and then landed a violent punch, intended to hurt. It wasn't just something he threw randomly. You throw every punch with intentions to damage your opp, or score points. That punch was clearly meant with bad intentions. So, does the domination make Duffee a better fighter? Maybe..

It could be that the better fighter won on the specific nights in the examples mentioned above. Or it could be that specific qualities in those fighters shined on those very nights. Russow showed his durability and power, JDS showed his speed and power. Cain showed his relentless pace. Point is, there are no lucky shots or victories. It's all about what you put out there, and what openings you capitalize on. If you leave openings like in these examples, you obviously have holes that need to be covered, that hinder you from being the better fighter.

Discuss.
 
ok, but there are victories that are very unlikely to be repeated
 
JJ versus Hamill is a fluke that will never happen again.
 
All fights are flukes or none are. GSP shutting down Kos eye early, Condit bleeding early, all these could be considered flukish, like the first few punch that took Jds out of the fight.... Decisions are just as flukish as finishes.
 
Serra vs. GSP 1 was a fluke. GSP wins that fight 9 out of 10 times. We just saw the 1 out of 10 fight.
 
Couldn't disagree more. Outclassed fighters have a a chance of getting that one punch in one hundred and knocking out their superior opponent sometimes. See Matt Serra vs GSP for an example, it's called a puncher's chance. Yes they have the intend to throw the shot and hurt their opponent but they had that intent with many other strikes as well, in some fights for the whole fight and then they land that one shot at the end and win.
 
Mavant said:
JJ versus Hamill is a fluke that will never happen again.
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I'm not talking about those types of victories. I'm referring to punches where one fighter lands a so called ''lucky punch'', and if you look at my examples, that's very evident.
 
Blommen said:
what about silva okami 1?
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How could you call that a "fluke", as if it wouldn't happen again if AS had violated the rules again? That's almost the opposite.
 
Technically you are right, but say I fought Cain and ko'd him. Sure I meant to ko him with that shot and I succeeded, but in no way does it mean I'm close to him in any sense of being a fighter. In the case with JDS and Cain, it wasn't a fluke.
 
R Palhares said:
Cain's injuries in the previous fight had absolutely nothing to do with JDS hitting a punch he throws often. It had nothing to do with his ability to take a punch. It had nothing to do with where it was placed. It was thrown, with the intent to land and damage him, and that's what it did. Same goes for the Russow-Duffe fight.
Discuss.
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I think your as bad as the people that say the first fight was a fluke.

Its not black and white. There is luck involved in basically every fight and to deny that is silly. And some fights have more luck involved than other fights. I personally dont think the first JDS/Cain fight was a fluke. And all of the guys that say it was a fluke point to the 2nd fight which doesnt help their case at all because Cain fought very differently in the 2nd fight compared to the first.

I think Cain lost the first fight simply because he didnt execute the perfect gameplan of rushing JDS the whole time and never letting JDS sit on his punches to land accurate and hard punches. He laid back a little and JDS capitalized like he did with all his previous opponents. In the rematch though, Cain was pushing a faster and more aggressive pace than he has ever done before and it worked out well for him.
 
PROBABILITY.

People need to learn that word.

it is not a fluke or luck when a punch lands. but the probability of Serra landing his big ko punch perfectly versus gsp might be one in ten fights. lucky for Serra he landed his one big non lucky punch in the first fight despite the small probability as he would not have got a second chance had he lost.
 
The only fluke punch I know of is Vitor-Randy II.

He didn't mean to nick Randy's eyelid with the edge of his glove.

I've never seen it happen before or since, and considering Randy's domination in the 1st and 3rd fights, I think that if Vitor had actually landed that punch, Randy would have taken it and won regardless.
 
JPresz said:
Technically you are right, but say I fought Cain and ko'd him. Sure I meant to ko him with that shot and I succeeded, but in no way does it mean I'm close to him in any sense of being a fighter. In the case with JDS and Cain, it wasn't a fluke.
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Canucks and their white tanks haha
Hh.jpg
 
You are wrong and right at the same time. A true "fluke victory" is extremely rare, but there are always outcomes of varying probability.

Any move or strategy a fighter attempts has a range of outcomes, and style or technique has it's own distribution of outcomes. By choosing between a very controlled methodical approach or an aggressive high risk approach, you can adjust the distribution of probabilities.

some times outcomes of very low probability happen.
The odds of Shogun breaking his arm on a standard double is low probability
The odds of Manvil Gamburyan dislocating his should on a typical shot is low probability.
The odds of a Matt Sera overwhelming GSP with strikes is very low probability.
 
rorydaboss said:
Serra vs. GSP 1 was a fluke. GSP wins that fight 9 out of 10 times. We just saw the 1 out of 10 fight.
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GSP took serra very lightly and got what was coming to him, that was no fluke.
 
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