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Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval III – The way they’re booking this flyweight division, there’s every chance Asu Almabayev or someone we don’t expect gets a title shot out of nowhere – just like Steve Erceg and Kai Asakura have gotten ‘gift’ shots they didn’t really earn. So that said, I’m going to throw ‘the ladder’ out the window, and just book Moreno-Royval III. The winner will have a winning streak of some significance, so probably gets a shot thereafter, although the permutations are crazy. Pantoja-Royval III isn’t particularly compelling, but who knows if it comes to that, that’s just one possibility in a division where Moreno continues to look problematic for everyone. This is not only high level flyweight action, but it settles a score and keeps the title alive to fresh contenders – the only downside is Moreno seems to be fighting the same few guys over and over and some will inevitably tire of that.
Amir Albazi vs Asu Almabayev – Assuming Almabayev doesn’t get a random title shot, this is undoubtedly the fight to make. The fact Almabayev would likely have to grapple with Albazi makes it a nightmarish stylistic match up for both men, but I think they’re both a little bit unfashionable (unfairly, perhaps), and this is the kind of match up where someone could theoretically shine in a big way. Either this, or Albazi vs Ulanbekov, but that guy is so unreliable I don’t really care to give him such an opportunity just yet.
Erin Blanchfield vs Alexa Grasso – This is the right call out, Grasso-Val III was a shutout but it shouldn’t send Grasso tumbling too far backwards, she’s still one of the few who hold a win over Shevchenko. I think at the minute, though, neither of these fighters are equipped to beat this pragmatic version of Valentina Shevchenko, so run this one next. Val vs Manon is the title fight to make.
Rose Namajunas vs Natalia Silva – Rose is now just 2-2 at flyweight, which is a little disappointing despite the fact she’s faced highly ranked opposition. I think we now know the Rose-Val fight that got a little bit of discussion would have been pretty uncompetitive even if Rose had squeaked a decision tonight, but she didn’t. She is now ‘gatekeeper to the elite’, in my opinion, unless she reinvents herself once again as a strawweight or something. At 125, Natalia Silva is the fight to make, the Brazilian has looked phenomenal, but this is yet another step up for her to negotiate.
Brendson Ribeiro vs Modestas Bukauskas – Finding two light heavyweights coming off wins who have not looked rankings-calibre is actually pretty tough, but here are a pair: Brendson squeaks past Caio Machado and I want to see him face the Lithuanian striker next. We need to get back to the kill-or-be-killed Brendson, and fast.
Caio Machado – CUT! A DWCS bust, Caio is 0-3 in the UFC after starting at heavyweight then dropping to light heavyweight. He’s okay, but he hasn’t exactly fought the elite or anything, he just consistently looks not quite good enough. He’s only 30 though, maybe he can fight his way back?
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Katlyn Cerminara – Jasudavicius finishes Ariane da Silva to finally prove once and for all that she belongs in the top 15, and now I’d like to see the UFC give her a shot up the rankings. Her sole defeats have come to Natalia Silva and Tracy Cortez in the UFC, neither of which are shameful defeats, so give her another crack this time against Katlyn Cerminara. Both are 35, and for the longest time Cerminara was a contender eliminator at 125, but lately it seems the peloton is catching her up. Even if she is going backwards, she’d still represent a career-best scalp for JJ, but if not, she defends her spot yet again.
Ariane da Silva vs Luana Carolina – Looking for fighters with momentum at 125 is honestly not an easy task, but Luana Carolina is coming off 3 straight wins against lower calibre flyweights, and whether we consider her legit or not, she’s probably earned this chance against Ariane da Silva, whose story seems to be that she’s struggling to defend her ranking of late.
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Michal Oleksiejczuk – Let’s see if Dustin Stoltzfus can continue his run of non-decision outings with a fight against the ever-fun Polish kickboxer Michal Oleksiejczuk. Michal is going off 3 defeats in a row, albeit against notable opposition, but he cannot afford to lose to Stoltzfus here or his head is on the chopping block as well. Can Stoltzfus become an unlikely executioner in the UFC Middleweight division? Let’s see!
Marc Andre Barriault – CUT! Barriault was that guy who could spring upsets just because of how durable he was, but that seems to be a distant memory after back-to-back R1KO defeats to Pyfer and Stoltzfus. I don’t see a future for the 16-9 Canadian in the UFC at this point (although if Warlley Alves is genuinely still around, who knows…)
Mike Malott vs Jake Matthews – Mike Malott had his hands full with Trevin Giles, and I think we can bury the idea that he’s going to make a run at the welterweight rankings any time soon. That doesn’t mean he has no worth in the UFC, of course, since the UFC needs fun fights between middling veterans to bulk out cards with a little bit of name value. If ever a fight represented that position on the UFC roster, it’s this: Malott vs Matthews. Matthews has been around for a loooong time, and Malott could do the same, though it’s crazy to think Jake is two years younger… This is a low-risk fight for both guys who are well-rounded and aggressive enough to put on a fun fight. They’re both coming off wins, so let’s go!
Trevin Giles – CUT! 7-7 overall in the UFC, but coming off 3 straight defeats, Trevin is also 2-5 in his last 7, and that all makes for ugly, ugly numbers. I don’t think he’s entertaining enough to keep around, but he’ll always have wins over the likes of Roman Dolidze and James Krause to reflect upon.
Aiemann Zahabi vs Charles Jourdain – Canada vs Canada? OH THE HORROR! But yeah, forget the politics, just book a damn fun fight between two guys who have shown they have real ability. Zahabi’s inactivity has been a real burden, whereas Jourdain’s inconsistency has been a nightmare for him, but both picked up VERY good wins tonight against highly respectable opposition. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Zahabi got a ranked opponent, but I don’t think it’s essential after 5 fights in 5 years. If he beats Jourdain as well, a different proposition to the likes of Aori Qileng, Javid Basharat and Pedro Munhoz, then he’s undeniable for a ranked opponent.
Pedro Munhoz vs Victor Henry – It’s not often you get two fights on one card where it makes a bunch of sense to throw winner vs winner and loser vs loser, but tonight is a fine example of where that would work nicely! Munhoz is real close to getting cut/retiring, but I think the UFC give the uber-vet another shot – and who better than Victor Henry, in all honesty, whose best moments in the UFC have come against Brazilian veterans like Raoni Barcelos and Rani Yahya – though he did lose to Raphael Assuncao…
Charles Jourdain vs Aiemann Zahabi (see above)
Victor Henry vs Pedro Munhoz (see above)
Youssef Zalal vs Edson Barboza – Sometimes you have to take a step back to take a step forward, and Youssef Zalal has done just that! His UFC career was middling out, but after being cut the Moroccan Devil has rattled off a series of super impressive victories, all finishes, and he looks razor sharp. Give him #15 Barboza in a BANGER!
Jack Shore vs Joshua Culibao – It’s fair to say Jack Shore’s run at 145 isn’t going as well as he might have hoped, and after facing killers back-to-back in Joanderson Brito and a resurgent Youssef Zalal, Shore really needs a step down because he’s in danger of getting cut, which is a shame because he’s a damn good fighter. While I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him turn up in PFL/Bellator, I’d give him another crack, this time at Joshua Culibao in what might amount to a ‘loser leaves town’ fight.
Alexandr Romanov vs Shamil Gaziev – I think at one point Romanov was considered to be a Gaziev-type prospect, but it hasn’t worked out for the Moldovan at the higher levels of the UFC heavyweight division – and Gaziev suffered the same fight Romanov has faced against top 10 opposition when Jairzinho Rozenstruik took advantage of poor cardio to beat him up in a Fight Night main event. Both have proven they can finish fights but what we don’t know for sure is exactly where Gaziev slots in to the UFC Top 15 – if at all. We’ll find out far more here. FWIW, I don’t see anything of interest for Romanov in the ranks above him at this moment in time.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Mick Parkin – Parkin has quietly amassed a tidy run of 4 straight wins to maintain a perfect 10-0 overall record, but what has been badly missing has been finishes and exciting moments – until he ran through Brzeski recently, at least. Parkin is obviously good, and if he can add in some memorable moments, his career trajectory could improve dramatically. Give Parkin the struggling #15 heavyweight coming off back-to-back losses and see how good he is.
Serhiy Sidey vs Cameron Saaiman – Saaiman is on a skid, Sidey is that guy who goes to decisions in fights that are way too close for comfort. The general consensus is the Canadian got lucky tonight, but you know what, I think he’s shown he can be in a fun fight or two, so let’s focus on that. Sidey vs Saaiman I really like as a sleeper on the undercard of pretty much any Fight Night!
Garrett Armfield vs Cameron Smotherman – 10-5 is a very ugly record for anyone trying to hang in the UFC, factor in Armfield is also 2-3 in the UFC and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s gone. But, unlike say Chad Anheliger (see below), I think Armfield was just a shade unlucky tonight and might get one more go. Give him Cameron Smotherman, who came in and beat Jake Hadley on short notice, and this will be a must win for Garrett.
Cody Gibson vs Alateng Heili – Alateng Heili is one of those guys in the UFC who seems to tread water. Yes, he beats entry level talent, but does he really have a good ceiling? Sooner or later we have to either reward his wins/test his mettle and after 3 wins in his last 4 fights, the inactive Chinese bantamweight either makes an impression against 37 year old Cody Gibson, himself coming off back-to-back wins over veterans Brian Kelleher and Chad Anheliger.
Chad Anheliger – CUT! Also 37, Chad’s age is really against him, and this is what I mean when I talk about guys coming into the UFC and just not really being active or stringing together wins. He’s 2-3 in the UFC, he’s 1-3 in his last 4, and the guy he beat isn’t very good either (Charalompos Grigoriou). Sorry, Chad, nothing against you, but age and mediocre activity levels have been your enemy throughout.
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Julija Stoliarenko – Jamey-Lyn Horth squeaked past Ivana Petrovic by Split Decision, that makes her 2-1 in the UFC and while wins over Hailey Cowan and Ivana Petrovic are counterweighted by a defeat to Veronica Hardy, Horth has been competitive in all her fights so far. I think she can take on Stoliarenko, who has (pound for pound) one of the worst overall records in the UFC at just 2-6, and if Julija loses this one surely her race is run?
Ivana Petrovic vs Yuneisy Duben – Duben pulled off a big upset on DWCS to book a spot in the UFC when she made short work of Shannon Clark – now 6-0, Duben has a 100 % finish record as a pro, something that lets her stand out from the crowd. 7-2 vs 6-0, this is definitely the right level for both fighters, and Petrovic can’t really expect more when she’s dropping Fight Night openers.
Amir Albazi vs Asu Almabayev – Assuming Almabayev doesn’t get a random title shot, this is undoubtedly the fight to make. The fact Almabayev would likely have to grapple with Albazi makes it a nightmarish stylistic match up for both men, but I think they’re both a little bit unfashionable (unfairly, perhaps), and this is the kind of match up where someone could theoretically shine in a big way. Either this, or Albazi vs Ulanbekov, but that guy is so unreliable I don’t really care to give him such an opportunity just yet.
Erin Blanchfield vs Alexa Grasso – This is the right call out, Grasso-Val III was a shutout but it shouldn’t send Grasso tumbling too far backwards, she’s still one of the few who hold a win over Shevchenko. I think at the minute, though, neither of these fighters are equipped to beat this pragmatic version of Valentina Shevchenko, so run this one next. Val vs Manon is the title fight to make.
Rose Namajunas vs Natalia Silva – Rose is now just 2-2 at flyweight, which is a little disappointing despite the fact she’s faced highly ranked opposition. I think we now know the Rose-Val fight that got a little bit of discussion would have been pretty uncompetitive even if Rose had squeaked a decision tonight, but she didn’t. She is now ‘gatekeeper to the elite’, in my opinion, unless she reinvents herself once again as a strawweight or something. At 125, Natalia Silva is the fight to make, the Brazilian has looked phenomenal, but this is yet another step up for her to negotiate.
Brendson Ribeiro vs Modestas Bukauskas – Finding two light heavyweights coming off wins who have not looked rankings-calibre is actually pretty tough, but here are a pair: Brendson squeaks past Caio Machado and I want to see him face the Lithuanian striker next. We need to get back to the kill-or-be-killed Brendson, and fast.
Caio Machado – CUT! A DWCS bust, Caio is 0-3 in the UFC after starting at heavyweight then dropping to light heavyweight. He’s okay, but he hasn’t exactly fought the elite or anything, he just consistently looks not quite good enough. He’s only 30 though, maybe he can fight his way back?
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Katlyn Cerminara – Jasudavicius finishes Ariane da Silva to finally prove once and for all that she belongs in the top 15, and now I’d like to see the UFC give her a shot up the rankings. Her sole defeats have come to Natalia Silva and Tracy Cortez in the UFC, neither of which are shameful defeats, so give her another crack this time against Katlyn Cerminara. Both are 35, and for the longest time Cerminara was a contender eliminator at 125, but lately it seems the peloton is catching her up. Even if she is going backwards, she’d still represent a career-best scalp for JJ, but if not, she defends her spot yet again.
Ariane da Silva vs Luana Carolina – Looking for fighters with momentum at 125 is honestly not an easy task, but Luana Carolina is coming off 3 straight wins against lower calibre flyweights, and whether we consider her legit or not, she’s probably earned this chance against Ariane da Silva, whose story seems to be that she’s struggling to defend her ranking of late.
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Michal Oleksiejczuk – Let’s see if Dustin Stoltzfus can continue his run of non-decision outings with a fight against the ever-fun Polish kickboxer Michal Oleksiejczuk. Michal is going off 3 defeats in a row, albeit against notable opposition, but he cannot afford to lose to Stoltzfus here or his head is on the chopping block as well. Can Stoltzfus become an unlikely executioner in the UFC Middleweight division? Let’s see!
Marc Andre Barriault – CUT! Barriault was that guy who could spring upsets just because of how durable he was, but that seems to be a distant memory after back-to-back R1KO defeats to Pyfer and Stoltzfus. I don’t see a future for the 16-9 Canadian in the UFC at this point (although if Warlley Alves is genuinely still around, who knows…)
Mike Malott vs Jake Matthews – Mike Malott had his hands full with Trevin Giles, and I think we can bury the idea that he’s going to make a run at the welterweight rankings any time soon. That doesn’t mean he has no worth in the UFC, of course, since the UFC needs fun fights between middling veterans to bulk out cards with a little bit of name value. If ever a fight represented that position on the UFC roster, it’s this: Malott vs Matthews. Matthews has been around for a loooong time, and Malott could do the same, though it’s crazy to think Jake is two years younger… This is a low-risk fight for both guys who are well-rounded and aggressive enough to put on a fun fight. They’re both coming off wins, so let’s go!
Trevin Giles – CUT! 7-7 overall in the UFC, but coming off 3 straight defeats, Trevin is also 2-5 in his last 7, and that all makes for ugly, ugly numbers. I don’t think he’s entertaining enough to keep around, but he’ll always have wins over the likes of Roman Dolidze and James Krause to reflect upon.
Aiemann Zahabi vs Charles Jourdain – Canada vs Canada? OH THE HORROR! But yeah, forget the politics, just book a damn fun fight between two guys who have shown they have real ability. Zahabi’s inactivity has been a real burden, whereas Jourdain’s inconsistency has been a nightmare for him, but both picked up VERY good wins tonight against highly respectable opposition. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Zahabi got a ranked opponent, but I don’t think it’s essential after 5 fights in 5 years. If he beats Jourdain as well, a different proposition to the likes of Aori Qileng, Javid Basharat and Pedro Munhoz, then he’s undeniable for a ranked opponent.
Pedro Munhoz vs Victor Henry – It’s not often you get two fights on one card where it makes a bunch of sense to throw winner vs winner and loser vs loser, but tonight is a fine example of where that would work nicely! Munhoz is real close to getting cut/retiring, but I think the UFC give the uber-vet another shot – and who better than Victor Henry, in all honesty, whose best moments in the UFC have come against Brazilian veterans like Raoni Barcelos and Rani Yahya – though he did lose to Raphael Assuncao…
Charles Jourdain vs Aiemann Zahabi (see above)
Victor Henry vs Pedro Munhoz (see above)
Youssef Zalal vs Edson Barboza – Sometimes you have to take a step back to take a step forward, and Youssef Zalal has done just that! His UFC career was middling out, but after being cut the Moroccan Devil has rattled off a series of super impressive victories, all finishes, and he looks razor sharp. Give him #15 Barboza in a BANGER!
Jack Shore vs Joshua Culibao – It’s fair to say Jack Shore’s run at 145 isn’t going as well as he might have hoped, and after facing killers back-to-back in Joanderson Brito and a resurgent Youssef Zalal, Shore really needs a step down because he’s in danger of getting cut, which is a shame because he’s a damn good fighter. While I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him turn up in PFL/Bellator, I’d give him another crack, this time at Joshua Culibao in what might amount to a ‘loser leaves town’ fight.
Alexandr Romanov vs Shamil Gaziev – I think at one point Romanov was considered to be a Gaziev-type prospect, but it hasn’t worked out for the Moldovan at the higher levels of the UFC heavyweight division – and Gaziev suffered the same fight Romanov has faced against top 10 opposition when Jairzinho Rozenstruik took advantage of poor cardio to beat him up in a Fight Night main event. Both have proven they can finish fights but what we don’t know for sure is exactly where Gaziev slots in to the UFC Top 15 – if at all. We’ll find out far more here. FWIW, I don’t see anything of interest for Romanov in the ranks above him at this moment in time.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Mick Parkin – Parkin has quietly amassed a tidy run of 4 straight wins to maintain a perfect 10-0 overall record, but what has been badly missing has been finishes and exciting moments – until he ran through Brzeski recently, at least. Parkin is obviously good, and if he can add in some memorable moments, his career trajectory could improve dramatically. Give Parkin the struggling #15 heavyweight coming off back-to-back losses and see how good he is.
Serhiy Sidey vs Cameron Saaiman – Saaiman is on a skid, Sidey is that guy who goes to decisions in fights that are way too close for comfort. The general consensus is the Canadian got lucky tonight, but you know what, I think he’s shown he can be in a fun fight or two, so let’s focus on that. Sidey vs Saaiman I really like as a sleeper on the undercard of pretty much any Fight Night!
Garrett Armfield vs Cameron Smotherman – 10-5 is a very ugly record for anyone trying to hang in the UFC, factor in Armfield is also 2-3 in the UFC and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s gone. But, unlike say Chad Anheliger (see below), I think Armfield was just a shade unlucky tonight and might get one more go. Give him Cameron Smotherman, who came in and beat Jake Hadley on short notice, and this will be a must win for Garrett.
Cody Gibson vs Alateng Heili – Alateng Heili is one of those guys in the UFC who seems to tread water. Yes, he beats entry level talent, but does he really have a good ceiling? Sooner or later we have to either reward his wins/test his mettle and after 3 wins in his last 4 fights, the inactive Chinese bantamweight either makes an impression against 37 year old Cody Gibson, himself coming off back-to-back wins over veterans Brian Kelleher and Chad Anheliger.
Chad Anheliger – CUT! Also 37, Chad’s age is really against him, and this is what I mean when I talk about guys coming into the UFC and just not really being active or stringing together wins. He’s 2-3 in the UFC, he’s 1-3 in his last 4, and the guy he beat isn’t very good either (Charalompos Grigoriou). Sorry, Chad, nothing against you, but age and mediocre activity levels have been your enemy throughout.
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Julija Stoliarenko – Jamey-Lyn Horth squeaked past Ivana Petrovic by Split Decision, that makes her 2-1 in the UFC and while wins over Hailey Cowan and Ivana Petrovic are counterweighted by a defeat to Veronica Hardy, Horth has been competitive in all her fights so far. I think she can take on Stoliarenko, who has (pound for pound) one of the worst overall records in the UFC at just 2-6, and if Julija loses this one surely her race is run?
Ivana Petrovic vs Yuneisy Duben – Duben pulled off a big upset on DWCS to book a spot in the UFC when she made short work of Shannon Clark – now 6-0, Duben has a 100 % finish record as a pro, something that lets her stand out from the crowd. 7-2 vs 6-0, this is definitely the right level for both fighters, and Petrovic can’t really expect more when she’s dropping Fight Night openers.
