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Anthony Hernandez vs Paulo Costa – ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez does it again, drowning the impressively athletic and powerful Michel Pereira with relative ease, all in all. The pressure started mounting in R1, and Hernandez barely lost a moment after that. Will that high pressure, relentless offence work against Paulo Costa? One thing is for sure, it only gets harder from here, but ‘Fluffy’ will no doubt back himself. Hernandez has a great track record against Brazilians with questionable cardio, and while that doesn’t quite apply to Paulo Costa in the same way, he has still lost 3 of his last 4 decisions…
Michel Pereira vs Gregory Rodrigues – Michel Pereira is one of the most dazzling strikers in the UFC, but there’s no escaping the fact he has faced a huge majority of strikers since signing with the UFC. It worked to a point, but that point was Anthony Hernandez, an exhausting roadblock that simply would not let ‘Demolidor’ get going. Capoeira is of no use on the ground. Time to defend his ranking, and I love a fight with fellow Brazilian Robocop next. Robocop deserves a shot at a ranked fighter, and Michel Pereira should defend his spot.
Rob Font vs Montel Jackson – Rob Font defended his #10 ranking, but he’s in a tricky spot having fought and lost to a number of the fighters above him – and even Jose Aldo, directly below him. Mario Bautista is an option, but that’s probably not the fight Font needs or the fans want, and while Song Yadong would have made sense, apparently he’s fighting Umar Nurmagomedov next. So I propose #15 ranked Montel Jackson, who rides a 5-fight win streak with 3 R1KO’s among them, and who has looked devastating when not out-grappled – which is also Font’s major weakness, but one he addressed a bit tonight against Kyler.
Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira – Kyler Phillips looked jaded and overwhelmed in the latter two rounds against Rob Font, unable to deal with Font’s pressure and unable to comprehensively out-grapple him despite a couple of takedowns. His #12 standing is once again under scrutiny, and it feels like we’ve been here once before. Is this Kyler’s ceiling, just scraping into the top 15 only to drop back out? Let’s see. Give him Lok Dog, the highly-touted Brazilian sporting a 21-3 record who just beat Ricky Simon. That’s a serious win, and so would this be – unless Kyler can reaffirm his status amid the mix at 135.
Charles Johnson vs Tim Elliott – I think after 4 straight wins, Charles Johnson has shown he has fully adapted to the UFC level. Not only has he dispatched Azat Maksum and Jake Hadley, but he’s then negotiated a step up in competition against the likes of Joshua Van and Su Mudaerji – given the division lacks a bit of depth, that’s enough for a ranked opponent, and I like Tim Elliott to give him the old ‘tricky veteran’ test he specialises in!
Su Mudaerji vs Jose Johnson – Su Mudaerji could well be cut after 3 straight defeats, but that performance was so enjoyable and evidencing such significant improvements that I think that would be the wrong call. Give the 28 year old Tibetan the other tall flyweight Johnson in Jose – but that really is a must win for Su Mudaerji regardless of the promise he’s still showing.
Cameron Smotherman vs Cameron Saaiman – Two young fighters on contrasting runs, Saaiman has found an early ceiling in the talent-rich UFC Bantamweight division, but he’s far from done in my opinion, and matches up really nicely against Cameron Smotherman, whose boxing and body work shone tonight against Jake Hadley. Victory here for Smotherman will get him more experienced opponents going forward, but man, Saaiman is no joke.
Jake Hadley vs Dan Argueta – I think if the UFC are keeping Argueta around for another fight (he’s 1-3 so far, plus 2 NC’s, which is bizarre), then Hadley is an opponent that works for him. Hadley hasn’t lived up to the hype at all despite being defensively sound and competitive across all of his fights, which isn’t dissimilar to Argueta’s time in the UFC so far. Loser leaves town, and honestly… I didn’t think these guys would be in this situation so soon, but… they are.
Darren Elkins vs Alex Caceres – I don’t feel good giving Elkins fights, but at the end of the day he’s won 5 of his last 7 and showed grit and skill in overcoming fellow veteran Daniel Pineda. Give him Alex Caceres next (if we have to…), a fresh match up for ‘The Damage’ that theoretically could offer up a bunch more submissions for Elkins to escape – but it’s a step up despite Caceres losing back-to-back fights. Bruce Leeroy’s last win? Daniel Pineda.
Daniel Pineda vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – I wasn’t sure if I was going to cut Pineda after 3 straight defeats, he’s got that Kyle Nelson-type record in the UFC, but the fact is he’s a JBG guy and he’s still very dangerous. How Elkins escaped some of those chokes only Elkins will know, but I’d give Pineda the chance to fight Shayilan next. Either the Chinese veteran bounces back with a win over a veteran, or Pineda turfs him out of the UFC because if Pineda wins, he always finishes – the fact is, though, he has still never won a decision!
Asu Almabayev vs Kai Kara France – Kai Kara France gave Amir Albazi a real run for his money, and recently terminated the highly touted Steve Erceg – I say continue his run as a divisional gatekeeper to the top 5 by giving him Asu Almabayev. Asu climbs to #7 after displacing Nicolau after winning and dominating a crucial third round, but there are still many questions to be answered by the Kazakh before he starts talking title shots. KKF can be out-grappled… but he can also turn your lights out. That should make it a much more exciting fight than the one against Nicolau tonight, and that’s my main concern booking Asu going forward.
Matheus Nicolau vs Steve Erceg – Nicolau is now on a 3-fight skid, but this was the most competitive of his recent losses by far, despite an unsatisfactory opening round that ultimately proved crucial. Nicolau may well be cursing himself for losing that one, but it’s time to bounce back now. In order to do that, I’d like to see him face another struggling flyweight in Steve Erceg. Back-to-back losses showed he flew too close to the sun, but he’s still top drawer. Winner not only breaks their skid, but picks up a HUGE win.
Jean Matsumoto vs Taylor Lapilus – Jean Matsumoto came through this war with Brad Katona with his record unscathed, but wearing the evidence of a close and entertaining scrap! I want to see him face French favourite Taylor Lapilus next, both these guys are clearly working their way towards the top 15, and the winner of this will have some real momentum – they’re both exciting, durable, and perhaps just a little lacking in fight ending power, but all that really means is we likely get 3 full rounds of high level action in a fight that will tell us a lot about both these fan favourites! I suspect Jean might come in as a slight favourite… maybe?
Brad Katona vs Vince Morales – We saw Vince Morales return to the UFC when he fought the aforementioned Taylor Lapilus in Paris, France, but the veteran came up just short. I think these two are so well-matched, and their mediocre UFC records don’t really tell the story here – they’re both high quality, well-versed, dangerous guys who bring it. Could be a barn burner, and very low risk-high reward for the matchmakers!
Joselyne Edwards vs Germaine de Randamie – Needless to say, Joselyne Edwards needs to sort her weight issues out, fast, if she’s not already cut. 3 strikes and you’re out? Well she’s had 3… but assuming that win and finish saved her job for her (which it may not have), then give her Germaine de Randamie next. GDR really, really needs a win or, at 40, it’s game over for her IMO. No more soft balls for the Queen of Missing Weight, but at the same time, what does GDR still have left?
Tamires Vidal – CUT! 3 defeats in a row for Vidal, and while she is one of the more reliably exciting fighters, she just doesn’t look up to the level. She is just 26, though, so if she can go back to the regionals and string together some finishes, this might be the last we ever see of her.
Elise Reed vs Yazmin Jauregui – Elise Reed put a beating on Penne tonight, bust her up and left her bleeding. It’s a good win that brings her UFC record back to a perfect .500, and she continues to prove she is a tough test for up-and-coming rookies and veterans on their way out, but she does need a relevant win – and 3-2 Yazmin Jauregui feels right, Yazmin hasn’t quite hit the heights expected of her just yet, but she’s still young and is game.
Jessica Penne – CUT! I imagine that is Penne retiring, but since I’m not sure it was confirmed, her third straight loss at the age of 41 doesn’t leave too many options. She didn’t disgrace herself by any means, but I think the door has closed on further fights at this level.
Melissa Martinez vs Shauna Bannon – Despite almost getting an R3KO courtesy of a misinterpreted liver kick, I thought Martinez looked far too tentative tonight to move her up the ladder. Give her Shauna Bannon, another who has struggled to get to grips with the UFC level but does also hold a win over Alice Ardelean. I don’t think there are any other realistic options, to be fair.
Alice Ardelean vs Marnic Mann – Possibly the two lowest quality fighters in the UFC, these two are both 0-2, and while both could be used to test DWCS winners or whatever, I honestly think most entry-level strawweights can skip this level. Yes, really. I can’t in all good faith book an 11-1 Brazilian like Alexia Thainara against either of these, for example, so it’s going to have to be Ardelean vs Mann and let’s see if either of them shows anything worthy of a new contract ahead of their fourth and possibly final fights at this level.
Austen Lane vs Mario Pinto – Austen Lane out-wrestled Robelis Despaigne in a disappointing fight that many thought might produce a finish. It was a workmanlike strategy against a very uneven opponent, and won’t have won many fans, but he moves on with his first UFC win and that’s about all you can say about it. Give him the undefeated Portuguese heavyweight Mario Pinto who is smaller, faster, and looks very well-rounded, but Austen Lane is a formidably sized roadblock that he has to negotiate if he’s to move on in the UFC.
Robelis Despaigne vs Sean Sharaf – Look, everyone and their son is going to wrestle Robelis, and the fact he looks so lost on the mat means that won’t change anytime soon. The best I can do is give him his fourth and possibly final UFC outing against a guy who has even less experience than he does. It’s fair to both parties, honestly, particularly Sharaf after taking a tough debut on short notice. [NOTE: No bonus points for calling for Robelis to be cut lol]
Michel Pereira vs Gregory Rodrigues – Michel Pereira is one of the most dazzling strikers in the UFC, but there’s no escaping the fact he has faced a huge majority of strikers since signing with the UFC. It worked to a point, but that point was Anthony Hernandez, an exhausting roadblock that simply would not let ‘Demolidor’ get going. Capoeira is of no use on the ground. Time to defend his ranking, and I love a fight with fellow Brazilian Robocop next. Robocop deserves a shot at a ranked fighter, and Michel Pereira should defend his spot.
Rob Font vs Montel Jackson – Rob Font defended his #10 ranking, but he’s in a tricky spot having fought and lost to a number of the fighters above him – and even Jose Aldo, directly below him. Mario Bautista is an option, but that’s probably not the fight Font needs or the fans want, and while Song Yadong would have made sense, apparently he’s fighting Umar Nurmagomedov next. So I propose #15 ranked Montel Jackson, who rides a 5-fight win streak with 3 R1KO’s among them, and who has looked devastating when not out-grappled – which is also Font’s major weakness, but one he addressed a bit tonight against Kyler.
Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira – Kyler Phillips looked jaded and overwhelmed in the latter two rounds against Rob Font, unable to deal with Font’s pressure and unable to comprehensively out-grapple him despite a couple of takedowns. His #12 standing is once again under scrutiny, and it feels like we’ve been here once before. Is this Kyler’s ceiling, just scraping into the top 15 only to drop back out? Let’s see. Give him Lok Dog, the highly-touted Brazilian sporting a 21-3 record who just beat Ricky Simon. That’s a serious win, and so would this be – unless Kyler can reaffirm his status amid the mix at 135.
Charles Johnson vs Tim Elliott – I think after 4 straight wins, Charles Johnson has shown he has fully adapted to the UFC level. Not only has he dispatched Azat Maksum and Jake Hadley, but he’s then negotiated a step up in competition against the likes of Joshua Van and Su Mudaerji – given the division lacks a bit of depth, that’s enough for a ranked opponent, and I like Tim Elliott to give him the old ‘tricky veteran’ test he specialises in!
Su Mudaerji vs Jose Johnson – Su Mudaerji could well be cut after 3 straight defeats, but that performance was so enjoyable and evidencing such significant improvements that I think that would be the wrong call. Give the 28 year old Tibetan the other tall flyweight Johnson in Jose – but that really is a must win for Su Mudaerji regardless of the promise he’s still showing.
Cameron Smotherman vs Cameron Saaiman – Two young fighters on contrasting runs, Saaiman has found an early ceiling in the talent-rich UFC Bantamweight division, but he’s far from done in my opinion, and matches up really nicely against Cameron Smotherman, whose boxing and body work shone tonight against Jake Hadley. Victory here for Smotherman will get him more experienced opponents going forward, but man, Saaiman is no joke.
Jake Hadley vs Dan Argueta – I think if the UFC are keeping Argueta around for another fight (he’s 1-3 so far, plus 2 NC’s, which is bizarre), then Hadley is an opponent that works for him. Hadley hasn’t lived up to the hype at all despite being defensively sound and competitive across all of his fights, which isn’t dissimilar to Argueta’s time in the UFC so far. Loser leaves town, and honestly… I didn’t think these guys would be in this situation so soon, but… they are.
Darren Elkins vs Alex Caceres – I don’t feel good giving Elkins fights, but at the end of the day he’s won 5 of his last 7 and showed grit and skill in overcoming fellow veteran Daniel Pineda. Give him Alex Caceres next (if we have to…), a fresh match up for ‘The Damage’ that theoretically could offer up a bunch more submissions for Elkins to escape – but it’s a step up despite Caceres losing back-to-back fights. Bruce Leeroy’s last win? Daniel Pineda.
Daniel Pineda vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – I wasn’t sure if I was going to cut Pineda after 3 straight defeats, he’s got that Kyle Nelson-type record in the UFC, but the fact is he’s a JBG guy and he’s still very dangerous. How Elkins escaped some of those chokes only Elkins will know, but I’d give Pineda the chance to fight Shayilan next. Either the Chinese veteran bounces back with a win over a veteran, or Pineda turfs him out of the UFC because if Pineda wins, he always finishes – the fact is, though, he has still never won a decision!
Asu Almabayev vs Kai Kara France – Kai Kara France gave Amir Albazi a real run for his money, and recently terminated the highly touted Steve Erceg – I say continue his run as a divisional gatekeeper to the top 5 by giving him Asu Almabayev. Asu climbs to #7 after displacing Nicolau after winning and dominating a crucial third round, but there are still many questions to be answered by the Kazakh before he starts talking title shots. KKF can be out-grappled… but he can also turn your lights out. That should make it a much more exciting fight than the one against Nicolau tonight, and that’s my main concern booking Asu going forward.
Matheus Nicolau vs Steve Erceg – Nicolau is now on a 3-fight skid, but this was the most competitive of his recent losses by far, despite an unsatisfactory opening round that ultimately proved crucial. Nicolau may well be cursing himself for losing that one, but it’s time to bounce back now. In order to do that, I’d like to see him face another struggling flyweight in Steve Erceg. Back-to-back losses showed he flew too close to the sun, but he’s still top drawer. Winner not only breaks their skid, but picks up a HUGE win.
Jean Matsumoto vs Taylor Lapilus – Jean Matsumoto came through this war with Brad Katona with his record unscathed, but wearing the evidence of a close and entertaining scrap! I want to see him face French favourite Taylor Lapilus next, both these guys are clearly working their way towards the top 15, and the winner of this will have some real momentum – they’re both exciting, durable, and perhaps just a little lacking in fight ending power, but all that really means is we likely get 3 full rounds of high level action in a fight that will tell us a lot about both these fan favourites! I suspect Jean might come in as a slight favourite… maybe?
Brad Katona vs Vince Morales – We saw Vince Morales return to the UFC when he fought the aforementioned Taylor Lapilus in Paris, France, but the veteran came up just short. I think these two are so well-matched, and their mediocre UFC records don’t really tell the story here – they’re both high quality, well-versed, dangerous guys who bring it. Could be a barn burner, and very low risk-high reward for the matchmakers!
Joselyne Edwards vs Germaine de Randamie – Needless to say, Joselyne Edwards needs to sort her weight issues out, fast, if she’s not already cut. 3 strikes and you’re out? Well she’s had 3… but assuming that win and finish saved her job for her (which it may not have), then give her Germaine de Randamie next. GDR really, really needs a win or, at 40, it’s game over for her IMO. No more soft balls for the Queen of Missing Weight, but at the same time, what does GDR still have left?
Tamires Vidal – CUT! 3 defeats in a row for Vidal, and while she is one of the more reliably exciting fighters, she just doesn’t look up to the level. She is just 26, though, so if she can go back to the regionals and string together some finishes, this might be the last we ever see of her.
Elise Reed vs Yazmin Jauregui – Elise Reed put a beating on Penne tonight, bust her up and left her bleeding. It’s a good win that brings her UFC record back to a perfect .500, and she continues to prove she is a tough test for up-and-coming rookies and veterans on their way out, but she does need a relevant win – and 3-2 Yazmin Jauregui feels right, Yazmin hasn’t quite hit the heights expected of her just yet, but she’s still young and is game.
Jessica Penne – CUT! I imagine that is Penne retiring, but since I’m not sure it was confirmed, her third straight loss at the age of 41 doesn’t leave too many options. She didn’t disgrace herself by any means, but I think the door has closed on further fights at this level.
Melissa Martinez vs Shauna Bannon – Despite almost getting an R3KO courtesy of a misinterpreted liver kick, I thought Martinez looked far too tentative tonight to move her up the ladder. Give her Shauna Bannon, another who has struggled to get to grips with the UFC level but does also hold a win over Alice Ardelean. I don’t think there are any other realistic options, to be fair.
Alice Ardelean vs Marnic Mann – Possibly the two lowest quality fighters in the UFC, these two are both 0-2, and while both could be used to test DWCS winners or whatever, I honestly think most entry-level strawweights can skip this level. Yes, really. I can’t in all good faith book an 11-1 Brazilian like Alexia Thainara against either of these, for example, so it’s going to have to be Ardelean vs Mann and let’s see if either of them shows anything worthy of a new contract ahead of their fourth and possibly final fights at this level.
Austen Lane vs Mario Pinto – Austen Lane out-wrestled Robelis Despaigne in a disappointing fight that many thought might produce a finish. It was a workmanlike strategy against a very uneven opponent, and won’t have won many fans, but he moves on with his first UFC win and that’s about all you can say about it. Give him the undefeated Portuguese heavyweight Mario Pinto who is smaller, faster, and looks very well-rounded, but Austen Lane is a formidably sized roadblock that he has to negotiate if he’s to move on in the UFC.
Robelis Despaigne vs Sean Sharaf – Look, everyone and their son is going to wrestle Robelis, and the fact he looks so lost on the mat means that won’t change anytime soon. The best I can do is give him his fourth and possibly final UFC outing against a guy who has even less experience than he does. It’s fair to both parties, honestly, particularly Sharaf after taking a tough debut on short notice. [NOTE: No bonus points for calling for Robelis to be cut lol]
