Even though Alex P is the more skilled striker, I have a weird feeling he’s getting KO’d by Jiri

[Motivated BJ Penn]

Jiri moves a lot. He does stand bladed and lean over heavy on his front foot at times, but you need to time that and not eat shots in the process. I just don't think alex has the cardio to hang at jiri's pace for 5 rounds, even if he is kicking jiri's ass in the first 2. I think it is KO in the first two rounds for Alex, or bust.

Dont think cardio has ever been one of Poatans weakness tho, hes always dangerous until the very last round. Maybe if Jiri comes in with a heavy wrestling gameplan he might be able to tire him out but not with purely kickboxing.
His leg kicks also have no tell, so they are harder to counter like normal leg kicks.

 

[xentreos]

I think jiri gets lit the fuck up. I think it'll look similar to Tony Ferguson vs gaethje, we will leave the fight wondering how in the hell jiri took all those shots from a monster in AP.

 

[rjmbrd]

I think if jiri wins, it is by breaking Pereira down with pace, and jiri probably takes a lot of damage in the process of doing that.

I will say that I can see jiri winning by ko, sub, or decision, but I can only see alex winning by KO early... I do not think alex can go five rounds with the pace that jiri pushes.

Jiri has a single fight with championship rounds in his entire career, and it was his last fight against a 40 year old dude. Despite fighting a slow as molasses, retiring Glover, Jiri still got pretty sloppy and gassed. That got really messy and I think Glover being way over the hill is why he lost.

Alex was really composed in his 3 round fight with Jan, doing plenty of counter grappling. Same in his 5 round fight with Izzy which also featured some really ugly grappling, but grappling none the less for Alex's output.

I really see no reason why Alex can't KO him in any round, and I have a doubt Jiri can keep up his wild man pace for 5 rounds anyhow, especially when getting clipped by someone still in their athletic prime with devastating KO power.

 

[drblackula]

I think for this it REALLY depends on how well Jiri's arm healed, the amount of time an injury like that takes to get back to remotely normal is a lot and this is going to be tough on the feet.

 

[jackleeb]

I feel the same way.

Alex is more skilled striker, and he is the favorite to win.
Most pro fighters have Alex winning too.

But I have a gut feeling Jiri will finish Alex.
Alex got immediately KO'd from 1 or 2 right hands from Izzy.

Not saying Jiri is any better in this regard, but he has the that will to go until the end.
As he says this week, "I am willing to die"

 

[Royce's Gi]

All good reasons. Kickboxering skills don't necessarily translate into MMA, like when Khalil Roundtree sparked Saki, though Alex had done well. Jiri's unpredictability and his willingness to take risk would be dangerous for Alex, but it could also dangerous for Jiri. This is why I'm excited for this fight!

Those darned kickboxering skills!

 

[fortheo]

Jiri has a single fight with championship rounds in his entire career, and it was his last fight against a 40 year old dude. Despite fighting a slow as molasses, retiring Glover, Jiri still got pretty sloppy and gassed. That got really messy and I think Glover being way over the hill is why he lost.

Alex was really composed in his 3 round fight with Jan, doing plenty of counter grappling. Same in his 5 round fight with Izzy which also featured some really ugly grappling, but grappling none the less for Alex's output.

I really see no reason why Alex can't KO him in any round, and I have a doubt Jiri can keep up his wild man pace for 5 rounds anyhow, especially when getting clipped by someone still in their athletic prime with devastating KO power.

Jan and izzy fight at a slower, more controlled pace than Jiri does. You do bring up a good point about whether Jiri himself can maintain that pace, though, but my suspicion is that his cardio will hold up better than Alex's. I have no problem being proven wrong here though. I like both guys.

 

[MrCoffee]

You're just constipated

I used to be constipated. Still am, butt was back then too. Going to the diarrhea store to get it all sordid out.

 

[maximus__]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge Alex P fan and think he’s probably the best striker in the UFC rn.
However, there are several factors that is giving me this feeling that Jiri will KO him:

-Jiri’s style is the main one. He’s not a conventional striker and Alex even admitted he doesn’t understand it. Alex P’s style works great against other conventional styles or inexperienced strikers.
-Alex P can sometimes be a slow starter, which could be bad news for such a fast starter in Jiri who comes out for round 1 like a tornado
-Jiri’s length. I think he has one of the longest reaches in the UFC. Alex isn’t used to fighting people his size or larger.
-Alex is a bit slower-footed at LHW with all the extra weight, he doesn’t move as much which can sometimes be his main form of defense
-Alex P is getting up there in age, and has been KO’d somewhat recently
-Alex’s recent training footage shows him taking ABSOLUTE BOMBS from Gregory Rodrigues who hits like a truck. That can’t be good for his durability.

Jiri is about as hittable as you can get. Hell he sometimes headbutts punches during fights.

This fight comes down to two things if they strike like I believe they will.
-Can Jiri land on Alex before he lands on him...
-Whoever's chin holds up...

Jiri should probably wrestle to be honest, but I think he gets violently KO'd by a left hook after some wild exchanges.

 

[xhaydenx]

Well, he's a more skilled striker than Izzy and he got caught by him, so who knows.

Jiri doesn't have good traditional striking either. Dude is all over the place. That unorthodox stuff won't be something Alex is used to and it could get him.

 

[Vil7]

You have to be Big Balls to try beat Alex in striking.

I haven't seen that gif before. What a beautiful sequence.

 

[Crash-override]

Jiri has a single fight with championship rounds in his entire career, and it was his last fight against a 40 year old dude. Despite fighting a slow as molasses, retiring Glover, Jiri still got pretty sloppy and gassed. That got really messy and I think Glover being way over the hill is why he lost.

Alex was really composed in his 3 round fight with Jan, doing plenty of counter grappling. Same in his 5 round fight with Izzy which also featured some really ugly grappling, but grappling none the less for Alex's output.

I really see no reason why Alex can't KO him in any round, and I have a doubt Jiri can keep up his wild man pace for 5 rounds anyhow, especially when getting clipped by someone still in their athletic prime with devastating KO power.

You aren't in your athletic prime at 36 heading to 37

 

[h_k_m]

Durability is all this fight will come down to. I see JP having an advantage there, unless the lay off time had and effect on that.

 

[rjmbrd]

Jan and izzy fight at a slower, more controlled pace than Jiri does. You do bring up a good point about whether Jiri himself can maintain that pace, though, but my suspicion is that his cardio will hold up better than Alex's. I have no problem being proven wrong here though. I like both guys.

Jiri looked gassed and absurdly sloppy in his first and only appearance in the championship rounds, and it was against a slow/old/retiring opponent. He's had a single fight hit the 3rd round prior to Glover. Basically he is completely unproven to maintain his pace.

If he fights like a berserker, we know he gets clipped a lot. He relies on his chin and frankly middling opposition to get by with that style.

Alex will literally murder him if Jiri fights that way.

I think more likely we see Jiri more composed and mixing in grappling and probably applying some defense. If he goes full Jiri ham style, he will enter 50/50 exchanges with the best hitter in the sport.

 

[fortheo]

Jiri looked gassed and absurdly sloppy in his first and only appearance in the championship rounds, and it was against a slow/old/retiring opponent. He's had a single fight hit the 3rd round prior to Glover. Basically he is completely unproven to maintain his pace.

If he fights like a berserker, we know he gets clipped a lot. He relies on his chin and frankly middling opposition to get by with that style.

Alex will literally murder him if Jiri fights that way.

I think more likely we see Jiri more composed and mixing in grappling and probably applying some defense. If he goes full Jiri ham style, he will enter 50/50 exchanges with the best hitter in the sport.

Yes, but that slow and retiring opponent has shown time and time again the ability to withstand brutal punishment and fight long, drawn out dog fights. Pereira has not even come close to showing the kind of durability and no quit griminess that Glover has shown, even the old man glover. If Alex was in that fight instead of glover, at that same pace, I'm not convinced he wouldn't fold even before the championship rounds.

I do agree with most of what you're saying, though, but If it comes down to conditioning, I'd still go with Jiri. The problem is that I don't know if he can push that kind of pace on Alex without getting his lights put out early.

 

[rjmbrd]

Yes, but that slow and retiring opponent has shown time and time again the ability to withstand brutal punishment and fight long, drawn out dog fights.

Ok lets really look at it. Almost as a rule, Glover loses in championship rounds. He's been there 5 times in his career and lost 4 of them, the single win being to a jabroni in Smith.

Glover Championship Rounds Career:
loss - Hill
loss - Jiri
win - Smith
loss - Gus
loss - Jones

There are some good examples of Glover surviving early adversity to come back with a win, but not in long fights and certainly not against the high ranked fighters.

So Jiri did what virtually everyone else before him did in the 5th round against Glover - he beat him. Jiri looked gassed, sloppy and a complete mess. He basically won a slop fest that went 50/50 in those exchanges.

We've literally never seen Jiri look great in a 5 round fight, he's only done it a single time.

I would bet substantial money Alex murders Jiri if he fights him with his bezerk mode. Much, much lesser quality fighters have clipped Jiri badly. He can't take that type of shot from Alex. He's going to be measured and wrestle, IMO.

 

[textwarrior]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge Alex P fan and think he’s probably the best striker in the UFC rn.
However, there are several factors that is giving me this feeling that Jiri will KO him:

-Jiri’s style is the main one. He’s not a conventional striker and Alex even admitted he doesn’t understand it. Alex P’s style works great against other conventional styles or inexperienced strikers.
-Alex P can sometimes be a slow starter, which could be bad news for such a fast starter in Jiri who comes out for round 1 like a tornado
-Jiri’s length. I think he has one of the longest reaches in the UFC. Alex isn’t used to fighting people his size or larger.
-Alex is a bit slower-footed at LHW with all the extra weight, he doesn’t move as much which can sometimes be his main form of defense
-Alex P is getting up there in age, and has been KO’d somewhat recently
-Alex’s recent training footage shows him taking ABSOLUTE BOMBS from Gregory Rodrigues who hits like a truck. That can’t be good for his durability.

The way Izzy won, I can see Jiri pulling it off for that exact kind of strike...the top-back part of the head. So the threat is there, but, I think Alex will pull it off with technique and counters.

 

[fortheo]

Ok lets really look at it. Almost as a rule, Glover loses in championship rounds. He's been there 5 times in his career and lost 4 of them, the single win being to a jabroni in Smith.

Glover Championship Rounds Career:
loss - Hill
loss - Jiri
win - Smith
loss - Gus
loss - Jones

There are some good examples of Glover surviving early adversity to come back with a win, but not in long fights and certainly not against the high ranked fighters.

So Jiri did what virtually everyone else before him did in the 5th round against Glover - he beat him. Jiri looked gassed, sloppy and a complete mess. He basically won a slop fest that went 50/50 in those exchanges.

We've literally never seen Jiri look great in a 5 round fight, he's only done it a single time.

I would bet substantial money Alex murders Jiri if he fights him with his bezerk mode. Much, much lesser quality fighters have clipped Jiri badly. He can't take that type of shot from Alex. He's going to be measured and wrestle, IMO.

I never said Glover won all his dog fights -- just that he's shown the ability to do them. Even in his losing efforts, Glover has shown more durability and grit in him than Alex has. How many dog fights have you seen Pereira go through? I'd consider zero of his fights that type of fight, with exception for his first MMA fight, which he folded in. Unless you put jiri away, it is going to be that kind of crazy, all action fight, and I've never seen pereira deal with that kind of pace, so I lack confidence in his ability to do it if he needs to.

If things go his way, he won't need to. Also, about Jiri wrestling, I agree, he should mix everything up and put the pace on Alex.

 

[ryun253]

It could happen, could also see Alex destroying Jiri's legs and wrecking him. Excited for the fight

 

[rjmbrd]

I never said Glover won all his dog fights -- just that he's shown the ability to do them.

I get that, I'm just adding to the conversation - Glover has lost 4/5 of his championship round fights, and he was getting clobbered horrifically in all of them. It would have been unusual if Glover won a championship round fight.

Even in his losing efforts, Glover has shown more durability and grit in him than Alex has. How many dog fights have you seen Pereira go through?

Jan shot in the first exchange of the first round, at 4,000 feet elevation. Alex carried him for literally 3+ minutes on his back, sometimes on his knees sometimes on a single knee. Stop and think about how ridiculously grueling that is.

It was Jan who was out of gas, huffing and puffing. He couldn't even hold his head up for the announcement of the winner, he was bent over holding his knees. Alex wasn't even breathing heavy.

If you haven't rewatched it recently, its up free on UFCs youtube channel, it might surprise you watching it again.

Alex has a pretty incredible gas tank and overall composure.