Dricus being around +200 is insane too much

[Trabaho]

+200 means it's anyones fight with a high chance Khamzat can break him inside 2. It's fair. No outcome suprises me here. Mayne Khamzat decision is the least likely. Actually Dricus by sub. All outcomes are possible.

 

[JohnMandick]

If there's +200 on DDP, post the link.

Easy money.

I definitely got +200, but that was a few weeks ago. Betonline? I'll check later.

 

[fedoriswar37]

He does not have pretty technique, but I’d argue that his chin, power, overall strength, and adjustments mid fight are elite. I also don’t recall another fighter being so cognizant while recalling the fight back during his in cage interview either, even while gasping for air; he might fight like a spazz, but he appears to be very calculated.

Which is even crazier to think of when you watch the way he fights. You'd think he's on autopilot.

 

[KO Shotz]

+200 means it's anyones fight with a high chance Khamzat can break him inside 2. It's fair. No outcome suprises me here. Mayne Khamzat decision is the least likely. Actually Dricus by sub. All outcomes are possible.

It is not the least likely that Dricus gets a sub.

 

[Trabaho]

It is not the least likely that Dricus gets a sub.

Out of T(ko), Decision and Sub the least likely is Dricus by sub. Out of the 6 options.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Out of T(ko), Decision and Sub the least likely is Dricus by sub. Out of the 6 options.

I think it's more likely that DDP subs a gassed Khamzat (who we have never seen on the defensive end of a tight choke, he could be a panic tapper for all we know) than Khamzat being able to control DDP over 5 rounds, personally.

 

[The XL]

DDPs success isn't that crazy if you think about it. He's big and strong for the weight class, hits hard, is well rounded, and is still dangerous even when tired. He is also completely unpredictable, and fighting is so much about getting the opponents rhythm and timing.

 

[Trabaho]

I think it's more likely that DDP subs a gassed Khamzat (who we have never seen on the defensive end of a tight choke, he could be a panic tapper for all we know) than Khamzat being able to control DDP over 5 rounds, personally.

Being able to control and winning a decision are different

 

[KO Shotz]

Out of T(ko), Decision and Sub the least likely is Dricus by sub. Out of the 6 options.

but what about the probability of them being on the ground?

 

[Trabaho]

but what about the probability of them being on the ground?

98%

 

[gibson5413]

It's simply because it's Dricus. Nothing in his arsenal is considered to be elite or even the best of the division. He's not technical, he's unorthodox as fck, & has one of the weirdest styles ever. But all of that is what makes him an anomaly & incredibly hard to figure out.

Also Khamzat has been incredibly hyped & pushed as the next big thing for years & the UFC is gonna ride his "stock" as long as possible.

DDP is one of those guys who will be doubted up until all of his accomplishments are looked back on & appreciated.

Totally agree here. By no means is DDP in the same category yet, but it reminds me of Tom Brady. For years, fans have said he was lucky and just had a good team around him. He gets to the end of his career, and all of a sudden, he is the GOAT. Certainly not giving DDP the GOAT title here, but I would say that he is following a similar path in his career. He is a problem for years to come.

 

[mkess101]

I think it's more likely that DDP subs a gassed Khamzat (who we have never seen on the defensive end of a tight choke, he could be a panic tapper for all we know) than Khamzat being able to control DDP over 5 rounds, personally.

He wouldn't need to for 5 rounds though. I agree him controlling him for 5 rounds would be unlikely. But if he controls him for 3 and avoids being finished he still wins a decision. Or even if it's 2, then a close 3rd, then DDP wins 4 and 5 we could see a Khamzat split decision win. That's more likely than DDP sub imo.

 

[flektarn]

our first and greatest african champ WILL keep the belt

 

[Tweak896]

I always see these threads complaining about the odds then quietly hide after the result shows why the odds were there in the first place. Didn't we just have the disrespectful odds for Olivera/Topuria? To me it's probably last time you get cheap Khamzat odds unless he goes to LHW.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

I always see these threads complaining about the odds then quietly hide after the result shows why the odds were there in the first place. Didn't we just have the disrespectful odds for Olivera/Topuria? To me it's probably last time you get cheap Khamzat odds unless he goes to LHW.

Does your confirmation bias also drag your eyes to the threads which were correct about the odds?
+200 on an active, defending champion is unusual at the very least, disrespectful at the worst.

 

[Intermission]

It's simply because it's Dricus. Nothing in his arsenal is considered to be elite or even the best of the division. He's not technical, he's unorthodox as fck, & has one of the weirdest styles ever. But all of that is what makes him an anomaly & incredibly hard to figure out.

Also Khamzat has been incredibly hyped & pushed as the next big thing for years & the UFC is gonna ride his "stock" as long as possible.

DDP is one of those guys who will be doubted up until all of his accomplishments are looked back on & appreciated.

What is unorthodox about him?

 

[Tweak896]

Does your confirmation bias also drag your eyes to the threads which were correct about the odds?
+200 on an active, defending champion is unusual at the very least, disrespectful at the worst.

I mean I remember Olivera/Islam too. But it is a good point, maybe its my bias. I definitely though Umar was going to take out Merab, but I don't remember many threads that were saying it was disrespectful.

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

• Brunson was nowhere near close to finishing those choke attempts.
• Dricus got up from the first takedown from brunson pretty damn easily.
• The round ended with Brunson looking for a choke that he wasn't close to getting. The more concerning part of that sequence was that brunson stunned dricus with a left hand, and that's the only reason he got that position at the end of the round in the first place. That's more indicative of ddp's striking deficiencies than his grappling deficiencies, in my opinion.
• Holland had a full camp drilling wrestling for Brunson.
• Holland had no camp drilling wrestling for Khamzat
• Holland was bragging for months about how he wasn't wrestling anymore before taking the khamzat fight on a day or two notice
• Khamzat came in 7.5lbs heavy for that holland fight.

Not saying DDP will win, but if I remember correctly, you evaluated Volk's grappling negatively through this same myopic lens before his fight with Islam -- You hyper focused on the fact that he got taken down by lesser opponents, but completely stopped your analysis of the grappling after the takedown and neglected to mention how he wrestled back up easily each time. It's much the same with your read on DDP. He will give up takedowns, but he's very good at wrestling back up and using submission attempts to create space to get back up.

Whether he's good enough to keep chimaev off of him remains to be seen.

I would add that DDP has gotten better each time out. Take the Strickland fights for example. First fight was close, DDP got better as the fight went on. Second fight was all DDP. I still think Khamzat has the early advantage in wrestling and DDP could even get caught like Brunson caught him early. I expect DDP to take over the fight after the first round. I like DDP to win this fight.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

I mean I remember Olivera/Islam too. But it is a good point, maybe its my bias. I definitely though Umar was going to take out Merab, but I don't remember many threads that were saying it was disrespectful.

Umar being a 3-1 favorite over Merab at one point was another shining example of a disrespectful line, but that one was worse as Khamzat has better quality wins and a steamrolling finishing style, I and a few others called the line openly ridiculous, was easy money on Merab.
Adesanya was the favorite over DDP as well, another easy money line, though it was only slight at around -150.

Islam Charles had Islam as the favorite? Islam hasn't once gone into a fight the underdog.

 

[Tweak896]

Umar being a 3-1 favorite over Merab at one point was another shining example of a disrespectful line, but that one was worse as Khamzat has better quality wins and a steamrolling finishing style, I and a few others called the line openly ridiculous, was easy money on Merab.
Adesanya was the favorite over DDP as well, another easy money line, though it was only slight at around -150.

Islam Charles had Islam as the favorite? Islam hasn't once gone into a fight the underdog.
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Yep, Olivera just finished best of LW division, then Islam came in as favorite and there were threads how ridiculous it was. Guess money came in to Olivera towards the end. I didn't know about Izzy/DDP.

As far as Merab/Umar, I was blown away by that win. I though Dagi's had better cardio, Merab just shredded him. Good call for that because I though Merab was going to be screwed.