Does Justin Gaethje have a good chance in beating either Islam or Oliveira?

[The Schmoop]

I don’t see him beating Islam in any way. He could, but I don’t see it. I favor him over olivera.

 

[CedricBee]

I don’t see him beating Islam in any way. He could, but I don’t see it. I favor him over olivera.

1) Islam doesn’t pressure forward the way Khabib did. He’s a lot more patient and Gaethje has the footwork & cardio that Volk has to keep distance or at least make him earn the takedown.

2) Khabib literally walked Gaethje down and ate a ton of kicks. Khabib also had a granite chin; I don’t see that rare “it’s different” type of pressure from Islam against Justin Gaethje.

3) Justin has a much better chance against Islam than Olivera. Charles has the kind of pressure & body attack that has Justin looking like he might’ve gassed by the championship rounds, Charles also had Dustin looking like he might’ve gassed by the championship rounds.

4) Even in his dub over Fiziev, Gaethje was vulnerable to kicks to the body. Olivera has the knees and teeps that is simply a really tough matchup for Gaethje.

 

[CedricBee]

Gaethje had perhaps the worst performance ever against Khabib. I was hyped for the fight, thought that ridiculous talk about Gaethje's wrasslin credentials might mean something, but I was fooled and I won't get fooled again. Islam seems to be very similar to Khabib - not as great, from what I've seen so far, but I don't see how Islam won't make it look easy taking Gaethje down and finishing him. .

No he didn’t! He used lateral movement and landed some decent leg kicks and right hands. That first round was very close & Khabib didn’t get the takedown until the wet end of the round. If Khabib lost two rounds (3rd against Conor) this was one of them!

The only wrinkle that Justin has developed since that fight is the jab we saw against Fiziev. Because that head kick wasn’t happening against a man that constantly has you on your heels (see Khabib vs Barboza) … If Justin faces Islam those leg kicks, lateral movement, plus his new jab could really give Islam problems. Plus Islam doesn’t pressure on the feet as well as Khabib, people have forgotten just how great Khabib’s chin was.

Olivera is actually the one who still has the body attack & pressure that will always give Gaethje problems. I could even see Olivera mixing in some round house kicks to the body a la Fiziev. It’s not like Gaethje will want to take it to the ground.

 

[mister piscadinha]

he has a 40% chance with either, i believe

people like to imagine islam doing what khabib did against justin, but here is the thing, islam does not have that chin, he could get HURT by some of the shots justin landed in that fight.
but tbh, islam is a better striker than khabib, so who knows

 

[Cowboy Kurt Angle]

I could see him winning a Charles rematch if he’s more technical but idk about Islam

 

[AL-Tappo McSnappo]

Here's another angle

wasn't out just dazed

 

[Busgosu]

wasn't out just dazed

 

[Dorkman]

Think he's like 60/40 with charles, and like 70/30 with Islam. Justin being the low side in each.

 

[The Schmoop]

1) Islam doesn’t pressure forward the way Khabib did. He’s a lot more patient and Gaethje has the footwork & cardio that Volk has to keep distance or at least make him earn the takedown.

2) Khabib literally walked Gaethje down and ate a ton of kicks. Khabib also had a granite chin; I don’t see that rare “it’s different” type of pressure from Islam against Justin Gaethje.

3) Justin has a much better chance against Islam than Olivera. Charles has the kind of pressure & body attack that has Justin looking like he might’ve gassed by the championship rounds, Charles also had Dustin looking like he might’ve gassed by the championship rounds.

4) Even in his dub over Fiziev, Gaethje was vulnerable to kicks to the body. Olivera has the knees and teeps that is simply a really tough matchup for Gaethje.

islam will put Gaethje on the mat and molest him. Islam will bring pressure against Gaethje. It’s no secret Gaethje isn’t as effective in a back pedal. He will implement the same strategy because anything else make Justin a very difficult fight.

As far as chins go, Olivera gets rocked in every fight he competes in. Justin’s patience is greatly improved from their first fight. I see him getting the job done this time around.

 

[The Schmoop]

Gaethje had perhaps the worst performance ever against Khabib. I was hyped for the fight, thought that ridiculous talk about Gaethje's wrasslin credentials might mean something, but I was fooled and I won't get fooled again. Islam seems to be very similar to Khabib - not as great, from what I've seen so far, but I don't see how Islam won't make it look easy taking Gaethje down and finishing him. Oliveira on the other hand, pretty much anyone at LW has a shot at beating him, he is the master of come from behind wins where he gets beaten up badly but pulls off a sub or a KO. I'd easily favour Oliveira though, but you never know if the chinny and reckless Oliveira will show up or the one who can beat anyone not from Dagestan.

justin realistically did better against Khabib than a lot of the other contenders as far as damaging shots landed. He was pounding Khabibs legs which is more offense than a lot of great fighters have been able to accomplish. Islam has better striking than Khabib but he’ll deploy an identical gameplan. Gaethje is shit when pressured. Islam knows this.

 

[Captain_Dammitt]

The weakest ground game vs two of the best.

 

[Mmmmmmma1234]

I would not call it good but he could be a very live dog to either

 

[checktheknuckles]

Yep was going to say this. And if that happened, then Justin definitely can slept him. I actually feel like Justin would have a better chance of catching Islam than he would have with Charles. At least catching them with a shot to finish the fight.

Put Islam in the same spot instead of Khabib, and not sure if Islam would get the finish like Khabib did. Or could power throw those leg kicks. It really looked like Khabib was one or two more heavy leg kicks away from being compromised.