Does Justin Gaethje have a good chance in beating either Islam or Oliveira?

[JKS]

No doubt he's got a great shot to win both fights. Olivera is there to be hit and it's really a matter of who lands the hard shot first, Justin had him taking hard shots when they fought. All it takes is the right one and lights out. Islam is the tougher fight, more calculated and defensively responsible. And Islam has a better shot to get the fight on the ground. But we've seen Islam get dropped and wobbled a few times, Justin lands it's lights out. All in all both fights are quite simple for Justin, avoid the ground game at all costs and land his power shots.

 

[Busgosu]

I love how people love using this GIF over and over, hoping it will happen again. It’s like that dumb guy who won $100 from a scratch off ticket. He keeps rebuying hoping to hit it again not realizing he’s lost thousands over that time span.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

IDK how Islam doesn't get the TD. If Khabib can eat a low kick and snag him up that easily, it makes Gaethje's main setup strike a liability.

Gaethje would need to finish with strikes (hands, primarily) during whatever moments he's allowed to operate on the feet, after that he's probably going to get grinded to dust.

Tough matchup for him, but I don't care for the Charles rematch all that much (However, I think he does have better chances against Charles). At least Gaethje vs Islam is a fresh matchup.

It wasn’t THAT easy though because Khabib ate a lot of leg kicks. But ultimately I do think that the result will be similar. Islam is just too strong on top.

 

[Busgosu]

I love how people love using this GIF over and over, hoping it will happen again. It’s like that dumb guy who won $100 from a scratch off ticket. He keeps rebuying hoping to hit it again not realizing he’s lost thousands over that time span.

Here's another angle

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

No doubt he's got a great shot to win both fights. Olivera is there to be hit and it's really a matter of who lands the hard shot first, Justin had him taking hard shots when they fought. All it takes is the right one and lights out. Islam is the tougher fight, more calculated and defensively responsible. And Islam has a better shot to get the fight on the ground. But we've seen Islam get dropped and wobbled a few times, Justin lands its lights out. All in all both fights are quite simple for Justin, avoid the ground game at all costs and land his power shots.

Agree. What’s interesting is that Justin doesn’t like pressure. Would Islam sit back, or would be step on the gas a little more….

 

[mjfan23]

It’s mma, he’s pretty good at it, so yes he has a chance, even a good chance.

 

[Spinkick KO]

If the high elevation BMF Ustin can defend their take downs and keep it standing he has a rather good chance in a gentlemanly battle of fisticuffs.

 

[IloveTHIS]

He has great chances with Charles less so with Islam

not to say he can’t or doesn’t beat Islam, more that Islam wins more than 5/10 times Gaethje would need fortune on his side

He can knock either out. Charles has become really good at surviving a firefight and recovering from getting rocked. Charles can also wrap up subs way quicker than Islam IMO. Justin can spark either guys lights out in an instant.

I give JG 55% chance at beating Charles. 60% Chance at beating Islam. but I could change my mind, both are great fights.

 

[Rektkid]

Agree. What’s interesting is that Justin doesn’t like pressure. Would Islam sit back, or would be step on the gas a little more….

I think Khabib will probably tell him to pressure.

 

[daniel san]

Gaethje had perhaps the worst performance ever against Khabib. I was hyped for the fight, thought that ridiculous talk about Gaethje's wrasslin credentials might mean something, but I was fooled and I won't get fooled again. Islam seems to be very similar to Khabib - not as great, from what I've seen so far, but I don't see how Islam won't make it look easy taking Gaethje down and finishing him. Oliveira on the other hand, pretty much anyone at LW has a shot at beating him, he is the master of come from behind wins where he gets beaten up badly but pulls off a sub or a KO. I'd easily favour Oliveira though, but you never know if the chinny and reckless Oliveira will show up or the one who can beat anyone not from Dagestan.

 

[doggo]

Yeah but it has to be all put together nicely, he had more potential than Poirier 100% sure

 

[fortheo]

It wasn’t THAT easy though because Khabib ate a lot of leg kicks. But ultimately I do think that the result will be similar. Islam is just too strong on top.

Gaethje notoriously neglected BJJ for the nsjority of Boa pro yesr Belford the Klabin fighg. That fight woke him up and he actually goes to BJJ classes now lol. I'm curious to see if his submission defense improved any. It didn't hold up against oliveira, but gaethje was rocked bad, so I don't draw too much from that.

 

[Peli]

Since he already fought Oliveira and lost. I still think a controlled chaos Gaethje can win that fight. He proved he can win rematches with Poirier, I think he can pull off some magic against Charles. Although I'll be rooting for Oliveira.

I also think he can give unique problems to Islam if they do ever fight. Although stylistically it's a terrible match up for Gaethje.

What do you guys think of Gaethje chances against these two?

I think he gets beat, he has a puncher's chance against both of them, that's about it. Hell, he had a puncher's chance against dustin. He caught dustin with something lucky. He admitted it as such. I had dustin winning that first round. Credit to him for winning, he truly is a BMF and I enjoy watching him fight. But there's levels to this, imo.

 

[Aurelian]

JG has a chance to win any fight at LW. I wouldn't say good chance though against Islam. Charles is a 50/50 fight but just as easily as JG could KO him, Olives could sub him. That's a fun fight.

 

[Fight Professor]

A wrestling/grappling threat would greatly decrease Justin's chances of winning.

 

[subtlySteve]

We have seen Justin v. Charles.

I'd rather see Justin v. Islam although I believe Makhachev would most likely submit Gaethje much like Khabib did back in 2020.

With that being said, it is MMA after all and Volkanovski showed that Islam is not unbeatable.

So, Justin would have a chance vs Islam, but he would have to let his ego go of being "the highlight" and being Justin "the NCAA Division I Wrestling" Gaethje, if he wants to become champion vs either of them.

Of course, that's just my two cents, I could have given the cashier the wrong change.

 

[Nightgunner05]

He’s a lose some, win some sort of fighter. I don’t think he would beat either of those guys, but with one well placed shot, you never know.

 

[LincolnHawk1]

Islam would not stand with Justin at least no more than a minute after a Justin hit him a couple times. He would go to shoot city pretty quickly. Obviously Islam would have the advantage his wrestling and he probably beats Justin there. I think Justin would have a much better chance against Olives. Olives has shown many times to get the chicken dance going in last fights, and we know Justin can give any lw the chicken dance.

 

[JKS]

Agree. What’s interesting is that Justin doesn’t like pressure. Would Islam sit back, or would be step on the gas a little more….

I think Islam would step on the gas. Knowing that Justin sits back, he would use his stand up more openly to set up the TD rather than the other way where he would set up the TD off his opponents striking offense moving forward. Of course that just opens him up to get caught and the TD being more predictable. But that is how I think he would approach it, that's what he did vs Volk.

 

[Senzo Tanaka]

I think he's just too sloppy for Islam. The ducking down stuff he was doing in the Dustin fight was driving me nuts. He's definitely more patient and technical but he's still wild. He'd have to have the perfect night to beat a guy like Islam.

Olives is a bit more of a toss up. It's probably 60/40 or 50/50 at best. Both guys have their moments and off nights.