[COVID19] CDC has deemed R0 level of COVID to be 5.7

This research comes from data collected in the earlier days of the outbreak in China. It's 3 months later and things are completely different now with better understanding and social distancing, so the R naught should be lower. Again, I don't understand CDC's decision to publish this on their website. The media is going to take this and run more fear mongering journalism with it.

I did do believe the current estimate of 2.2 is on the low end. This thing is just as infectious as the flu (R naught of 2), but with more than double the incubation period, and you can still spread it during incubation and asymptomatically. This virus will be very difficult to contain, so all we can do is flatten the curve, approve more treatments and get herd immunity until we can get a vaccine. Yes, there is a possibility of repeat infection, but we need more solid data on the percentage. Virus mechanism wise herd immunity should work, like SARS and similar to some communities like Copenhagen during the Spanish flu.

You know what else would help cut down the R naught CDC? More people wearing masks to prevent the spread.


To derive realistic values of R0, we used previous estimates of serial intervals for COVID-19. The serial interval is estimated to be ≈7–8 days based on data collected early in the outbreak in Wuhan (1). More recent data collected in Shenzhen Province, China, suggests that the serial interval is dependent on the time to hospital isolation (Q. Bi et al., unpub. data, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423External Link).

They used a more recent data.
 
To derive realistic values of R0, we used previous estimates of serial intervals for COVID-19. The serial interval is estimated to be ≈7–8 days based on data collected early in the outbreak in Wuhan (1). More recent data collected in Shenzhen Province, China, suggests that the serial interval is dependent on the time to hospital isolation (Q. Bi et al., unpub. data, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423External Link).

They used a more recent data.
The data is still from January and February in Shenzhen. From that link:

'Methods The Shenzhen CDC identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases from January 14 to February 12, 2020 and 1286 close contacts.'

Shenzhen has 23 million people, and in the urban areas it's as dense, if not more than New York. Foxconn is based there, and they squash workers in like sardines. Personal hygiene there is much worse than it is here. Of course, COVID-19 is highly infectious, but R naught is a fluid number dependent on the environment and measures taken. In the US today, a non super spreader should have an R naught lower than 5.7.
 
The data is still from January and February in Shenzhen. From that link:

'Methods The Shenzhen CDC identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases from January 14 to February 12, 2020 and 1286 close contacts.'

Shenzhen has 23 million people, and in the urban areas it's as dense, if not more than New York. Foxconn is based there, and they squash workers in like sardines. Personal hygiene there is much worse than it is here. Of course, COVID-19 is highly infectious, but R naught is a fluid number dependent on the environment and measures taken. In the US today, a non super spreader should have an R naught lower than 5.7.

But doesn't NY have way worse mortality rate than Shenzhen? How do we explain that?
 
Most places will probably resume in another 6 weeks BUT everyone is gonna have to play defense when that happens. So the economy can go on with heavy defense in place.

Social distancing, hand washing, mask, etc etc etc... it will go on like that for quite somentime so it will by no means be back to normal but as good as it can be. Heavy rules and regulations

That's how it's going to have to be. Cant halt everything for any significant amount of time or shit will just be worse than the sickness. It already is.
 
Some of you are crazy. People are not gonna be leaving their homes in a Few weeks even if the president says that’s what’s gonna happen.

We’re gonna be quarantining for many months more.
 
Ooo OK, now I’m really concerned lol
 
Some of you are crazy. People are not gonna be leaving their homes in a Few weeks even if the president says that’s what’s gonna happen.

We’re gonna be quarantining for many months more.

We finally agree, even after the POTUS opens the economy, the crazies will be hiding home for months..that’s going to be good for traffic...
 
We finally agree, even after the POTUS opens the economy, the crazies will be hiding home for months..that’s going to be good for traffic...


People are not going to go out and get infected by a deadly virus. The virus tells us what to do not the other way around.

if you really believe america is gonna be opened up in a few weeks, and people are gonna be all for that, you’re mentally insane.
 
We can't be on lockdown for a year. just let it spread, if you die you die. Run out of body bags someone can find a place to bury you.

People are gonna start getting desperate and committing crimes like crazy if this goes on any longer

Crime is down.
 
People are not going to go out and get infected by a deadly virus. The virus tells us what to do not the other way around.

if you really believe america is gonna be opened up in a few weeks, and people are gonna be all for that, you’re mentally insane.


C0D669B6-AD29-4B86-8D19-69CFBF787E8B.jpeg
 
Start life back up again.
We have immune systems for a reason. People individually should exercise prudence. Not be a bunch of mollycoddled imps lectured at by schoolmarms about "just stay at home".

The lockdown is working man. Just do this a little while longer.
 
Start life back up again.
We have immune systems for a reason. People individually should exercise prudence. Not be a bunch of mollycoddled imps lectured at by schoolmarms about "just stay at home".

This is an epic response to this madness.
 
The lockdown is working man. Just do this a little while longer.


You’re arguing with idiots who still don’t even understand the most basic points about this virus.

the quarantine is to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed and first line workers from getting overwhelmed and contracting the virus themselves. In turn having a far higher number of deaths that all could’ve been preventable. It also prevents people who have other illnesses from losing access to healthcare and dying.

Its sad people in America are this stupid.
 
You’re arguing with idiots who still don’t even understand the most basic points about this virus.

the quarantine is to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed and first line workers from getting overwhelmed and contracting the virus themselves. In turn having a far higher number of deaths that all could’ve been preventable. It also prevents people who have other illnesses from losing access to healthcare and dying.

Its sad people in America are this stupid.

It also lowers the amount of people who get infected as well.
 
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