[COVID19] CDC has deemed R0 level of COVID to be 5.7

[Don Quixote]

Stuff like this just makes me want to get the virus, quarantine myself, then move on with the rest of my life.

 

[chrisdiaz]

We can't be on lockdown for a year. just let it spread, if you die you die. Run out of body bags someone can find a place to bury you.

People are gonna start getting desperate and committing crimes like crazy if this goes on any longer

You can already commit minor crimes and will be released next day due to corona virus issues in jail. Ive seen it firsthand due to a crime commited on my property. Its ridiculous.Something that normally would put you in for 3-6 months=next day release. Not to turn this into a war room thread.

 

[Gomi1977]

So what is your stance. Are you a covid19 is just a flu team or covid is a pandemic let's take it serious team?

No, definitely not a just-the-flu-bro. Mortality rate is around 5 times higher than the flu, combined with a much higher rate of infection. This should have been taken much more seriously, much more vigorous testing, combined with track & trace and mandatory 21-day individual quarantines, suspending internation travel, etc. That way, we could have still had an economy, as well as social distancing this sob virus into oblivion in 3 months.

 

[Blayt7hh]

I would have said yes fuck it do it live. But there are repeat cases... even if you have recovered you are not immune to this thing...

I read they think there are two strains of it was why some people caught it twice. Some viruses also mutate a lot and make it difficult for your immune system to catch. The flu is extremely good at this

 

[Merlotte's]

You actually do

I asked my kenyan co worker about it and he said they are pretty careful with it

Do they walk around in bug nets? Common here in June but it’s mostly so we don’t end up itchy as hell.

 

[Gomi1977]

Thank you for the analysis. If it's 80% that are asymptomatic, then it could be both a good news and a bad news. Good news is that the true mortality rate is much lower, and we could achieve herd immunity much faster. The bad news is that since there are so many asymptomatic infected who could still spread it, more vulnerable population could be infected and this puts a heavier strain on the healthcare system.

Good point about the multiple strains circulating in NY. I hope the strains are not so different and have antigenic shift, as that will pose a lot of problems for vaccine and immunity. Another reason why medical workers are at higher risk is the constantly being in the presence of high viral concentration for a prolonged period of time with minimal rest.

Also, does your R naught calculation take into account of the asymptomatic carriers and the increase in the availability of testing?



I never said it's much lower. All I said that it should be lower than 5.7, which was measured in China back in January, where the conditions were much different. Also, isn't it a good thing if the R naught is lower with the measures we have put in place? That means fewer people will be infected=fewer deaths=better for everyone

Yeah, it's a Catch-22, I have to agree. Ob the other hand, it looks like we're already at 15% infection in The Netherlands, and with things doubling now > 12 days due to all the measures, we could/ should reach herd immunity somewhere mid-Summer.
Yes, I mentioned, or meant, that earlier, when I spoke of dense cities such as NYC being hotspots due to prolonged exposure to (possibly) infected people, such as in bars. I also mentioned we know this due to the Italian doctors dropping like flies. It's been nuts there, my best friend from HS lives in Northen Italy, it's been scary there.

And of course it's lower now, due to the social distancing. Why don't some people understand that? It IS highly contagious, when left unchecked, now we're checking it with social distancing et al, so of course now the EFFECTIVE R0 is lower (<1 in The Netherlands now), but the ACTUAL R0 of SARS-CoV-2 doesn't change!

Glad we're on the same page!

 

[Blayt7hh]

Multiple factors:
1. NYC is the epicenter for COVID19 in the US. The hospital system is being overrun and that's leading to a higher mortality rate
2. True mortality rate is much lower. The city is still constrained by the lack of testing, so only the very sick were tested, leading to a higher mortality rate. Some Sherbros like @General_Speckz and @Gomi1977 have done some great mathematical modeling showing the true mortality rate is something around 0.3%, and that the cases reported is probably only less than 10% of the true infection number. Other scientific studies have also shown that 20% to 50% of the infected people don't show any symptoms
3. NYC (and the US) was slow to enact measures to slow the spread. As a result what we are seeing now is from infections that happened 2 to 3 weeks ago when there was no social distancing, so the R naught then was probably quite high. Now that we have enacted social distancing, the R naught will be lower.
4. Numbers out of China would make a Nigerian millionaire philanthropist prince blush. Whatever mortality cases are reporting, multiply that by ten or more to get a true number.

NYC is the perfect place for this disease. I don’t think you could really do social distancing there if everyone wanted to.

 

[Cole train]

Do they walk around in bug nets? Common here in June but it’s mostly so we don’t end up itchy as hell.

didnt ask for clarification

they also really dont hunt animals that much or venture in to the jungle like in movies because its dangerous and animals wil kill you

 

[koolinkunming]

You stepped into shit here, bud. Prepare for backlash.

 

[ralphc1]

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus." (CDC)


So basically the level of contagiousness is unprecedented.
And most likely, the warmer weather won't suppress this virus and the only way this virus will be eliminated is if we develop a vaccine, most likely next year.

The R0 is also dependent on how much opportunity there is to spread it, hence the lock down. If you don't have contact with others, you can't spread it to anyone. The key seems to be finding out how it spreads and figuring a way to stop that. If it's from mucos, we need effective masks and goggles.

There are many who have kept working through this and haven't gotten sick. We need to compile the data to see what factors are involved in the risk. Early studies seemed to show that people with type O blood were less likely to contract the virus. If blood type and Rh factor are involved in the severity of the disease, it would be good to know.

 

[Get To Da Choppa]

Yeah, it's a Catch-22, I have to agree. Ob the other hand, it looks like we're already at 15% infection in The Netherlands, and with things doubling now > 12 days due to all the measures, we could/ should reach herd immunity somewhere mid-Summer.
Yes, I mentioned, or meant, that earlier, when I spoke of dense cities such as NYC being hotspots due to prolonged exposure to (possibly) infected people, such as in bars. I also mentioned we know this due to the Italian doctors dropping like flies. It's been nuts there, my best friend from HS lives in Northen Italy, it's been scary there.

And of course it's lower now, due to the social distancing. Why don't some people understand that? It IS highly contagious, when left unchecked, now we're checking it with social distancing et al, so of course now the EFFECTIVE R0 is lower (<1 in The Netherlands now), but the ACTUAL R0 of SARS-CoV-2 doesn't change!

Glad we're on the same page!

In these threads about COVID-19, it's always good to have posters like you who can do rational and logical analysis, and not afraid to change their views in light of analysis results, while still keeping in mind of the human impact. Appreciate your insights.

Good call on using term "effective R0" instead, as it is more fluid and lower now due the improved conditions and measures.

 

[The Audience]

I think that there is still uncertainty about whether the small number of second positive tests are reinfections or reactivations; there are other viruses that do this and with a novel virus its too early to know fully how it behves. One study on monkeys that had been infected already with sars2 and had completed recovery and showed anitbody presence, showed no signs of reinfection after a second dose of the virus was administered. Also, as far as i can see there are only two known variants of the virus in circulation -with it being considered to have a relatively stable genetic code, and indeed much less genetic variability than flu (the second one is the one that is showing in most infections suggesting that it is the one that has facilitated human-human transmission). I would suggest that once you have had an initial covid infection, a reinfection is not something that you should be worried about.

 

[Gomi1977]

In these threads about COVID-19, it's always good to have posters like you who can do rational and logical analysis, and not afraid to change their views in light of analysis results, while still keeping in mind of the human impact. Appreciate your insights.

Good call on using term "effective R0" instead, as it is more fluid and lower now due the improved conditions and measures.

Thank you for that. I've mostly been a lurker here over the years, but this got me freaked out, and interested, and when the numbers started to makes less and less sense, I felt the need to share that, and share my changing views. The good thing about numbers, is that they have no feelings, no emotions, no agenda, they are what they are, and the calculations can't lie either. BUT, as soon as an assumption changes based on research, I'll adapt to that, and take whatever comes out as the new "truth"/ reality.

The one thing that never made sense, is everyone telling is it's like super contagious (which the R0 shows is true), and we did shit for like the first couple of weeks, but the numbers are actually really low, but at the same time, our hospitals and ICUs are stuffed to the brim. That just doesn't add up. You can't have a virus with an R0 of almost SIX, have it roam freely for weeks, yet still have high numbers. And when you start seeing that exponential growth, it's scary, because big numbers, but when you start comparing that to the numbers of hospitalisations, ICU-admittances, and deaths, it's actually not that bad. It just happend SO fast, we all got caught with our pants down. Even though we got plenty of warning, which is really frustrating.

 

[General_Speckz]

I mean the R naught is just a semantic distinction.

A rate that can apply to separate populations is what's important for making predictions.

It's just like how General Relativity includes a constant to adjust for larger sized bodies. There are unknowns variables in most complex predictive equations.

I've noticed it's impossible to predict a surge (perhaps without including human massive social changes?), but when a surge hits, it then becomes predictable. The R naught itself is a pretty arbitrary concept to the whole thing because it's not very useful in practice other than to suggest an exponential equation.

From what I understand R naught is usually like:
Rnaught^(x-day)

An equation like:
A * B * (x-day)^(c)
..is much better here from my experimentation to match the data.

In my case I set A to the population size, B to about 1.3888888, and C to 3.7
It follows the data when a surge happens and slows down correctly if you top it with a reasonable logistic curve.

 

[JSN]

Born and raised...

Did you spend most of your time on the playground?

 

[ralphc1]

Stuff like this just makes me want to get the virus, quarantine myself, then move on with the rest of my life.

I've said before, it may have been best to get it early when the hospitals aren't full in case the need arises. That is still a possibility in my area as there apparently are no people hospitalized with it at the 4 local hospitals.

 

[ralphc1]

NYC is the perfect place for this disease. I don’t think you could really do social distancing there if everyone wanted to.

New York City may be the most socially distant location on Earth. Someone could lay dying on the sidewalk and be ignored as people don't care. It's the physical distancing that is difficult in New York. You get in a cab and there might have been 50 people in it recently. Anything you touch was probably touched by a hundred people recently. There is no good way to avoid being closer than 6 feet to another person in New York City. It's difficult to even walk around without coming in physical contact.

 

[johnnybeebob]

i plan on licking random surfaces when shit is back to normal.

can't wait to wipe my nose with my sleeves, touch hand rails on escalators and not wipe down at the gym

The only thing you lick is sacc

 

[drstrangelov]

Uncontrolled spread of a novel virus in a densely populated area with poor hygiene is exceptionally high. This isn’t some breaking story, it’s a case study that people find interesting because the data is better than was previously available. There will be a ton of public health research on this in the coming years. We’re going to learn more about asymptomatic spreaders as well. This will help people get degrees but won’t impact the resumption of normal life, that path is already set.

 

[Watcha gunna doo]

I would have said yes fuck it do it live. But there are repeat cases... even if you have recovered you are not immune to this thing...

yes you are