[COVID19] CDC has deemed R0 level of COVID to be 5.7

[rl4090526]

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus." (CDC)


So basically the level of contagiousness is unprecedented.
And most likely, the warmer weather won't suppress this virus and the only way this virus will be eliminated is if we develop a vaccine, most likely next year.

 

[Chesten_Hesten]

 

[CrimsonFan]

We can't be on lockdown for a year. just let it spread, if you die you die. Run out of body bags someone can find a place to bury you.

People are gonna start getting desperate and committing crimes like crazy if this goes on any longer

 

[rl4090526]

Pretty scary stuff if anyone is familiar with R0 rate

 

[Chesten_Hesten]

Pretty scary stuff if anyone is familiar with R0 rate

Likelihood of 2nd respread a distinct possibility.

 

[rl4090526]

We can't be on lockdown for a year. just let it spread, if you die you die. Run out of body bags someone can find a place to bury you

I would have said yes fuck it do it live. But there are repeat cases... even if you have recovered you are not immune to this thing...

 

[HARRISON_3]

Pretty scary stuff if anyone is familiar with R0 rate

I eat R0 rate's for breakfast.

 

[Law Talkin’ Guy]

So what’s R0 exactly? How many people get infected by each contagious person?

 

[Cole train]

So what’s R0 exactly? How many people get infected by each contagious person?

5 i think

Average flu is 1-2 if im correct

 

[Cool Hand Luke]

I eat R0 rate's for breakfast.

they are fucking delicious

 

[Cool Hand Luke]

We can't be on lockdown for a year. just let it spread, if you die you die. Run out of body bags someone can find a place to bury you.

People are gonna start getting desperate and committing crimes like crazy if this goes on any longer

got plenty of guns and ammo to take care of that.

 

[Cole train]

got plenty of guns and ammo to take care of that.

So do they

 

[Cool Hand Luke]

So do they

I'll take my chances with me

 

[TardStrong]

We can't be on lockdown for a year. just let it spread, if you die you die. Run out of body bags someone can find a place to bury you.

People are gonna start getting desperate and committing crimes like crazy if this goes on any longer

Most places will probably resume in another 6 weeks BUT everyone is gonna have to play defense when that happens. So the economy can go on with heavy defense in place.

Social distancing, hand washing, mask, etc etc etc... it will go on like that for quite somentime so it will by no means be back to normal but as good as it can be. Heavy rules and regulations

 

[Cool Hand Luke]

i plan on licking random surfaces when shit is back to normal.

can't wait to wipe my nose with my sleeves, touch hand rails on escalators and not wipe down at the gym

 

[ufcfan4]

So R0 for this being far higher than SARS or Swine Flu, let's say, makes sense to me because of the incubation period and the asymptomatic cases. From what I've read, SARS was far deadlier but it basically took the infected out of commission very quickly- they were unmistakably sick and thus not going around and spreading more.

When you have something that does not show symptoms for days and that for some, potentially 1/3 of infected, does not manifest in symptoms at all, you have a huge problem in terms of trying to control it.

Right now, we have no real way to go about fixing this issue. If you can't get reinfected/have temporary immunity, then the serology tests are hugely important. If you can, then what the hell- what difference do they make other than perhaps determining who can donate serum for treatment (which is very important if they find this to be an effective intervention) to others. I don't think it has been established either way, though Fauci tends to speak with confidence that if you get the virus, you'll get temporary immunity.

Social distancing really has to become the way of the world even as things re-open. And everybody wearing masks is going to have to be a thing for the time being.

 

[Get To Da Choppa]

This research comes from data collected in the earlier days of the outbreak in China. It's 3 months later and things are completely different now with better understanding and social distancing, so the R naught should be lower. Again, I don't understand CDC's decision to publish this on their website. The media is going to take this and run more fear mongering journalism with it.

I did do believe the current estimate of 2.2 is on the low end. This thing is just as infectious as the flu (R naught of 2), but with more than double the incubation period, and you can still spread it during incubation and asymptomatically. This virus will be very difficult to contain, so all we can do is flatten the curve, approve more treatments and get herd immunity until we can get a vaccine. Yes, there is a possibility of repeat infection, but we need more solid data on the percentage. Virus mechanism wise herd immunity should work, like SARS and similar to some communities like Copenhagen during the Spanish flu.

You know what else would help cut down the R naught CDC? More people wearing masks to prevent the spread.

 

[TardStrong]

R naught is obviously under 1 or everyone would have this virus..... how stupid are they?

 

[all caps]

 

[MC Paul Barman]

Start life back up again.
We have immune systems for a reason. People individually should exercise prudence. Not be a bunch of mollycoddled imps lectured at by schoolmarms about "just stay at home".