International Covid-19 Breaking News v17: Russian PM infected

Compared to others, do you think your country did a good job at managing the situation so far

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Joe said:
How can you isolate and protect the vulnerable when you can't even test most people?
Click to expand...

By letting all the young and healthy people get sick and build immunity so that they can safely interact with old people. By only having to focus efforts on a smaller part of the population, we will have more resources to dedicate to helping them.

Old people need to stay isolated and let the world move forward.
 
Since @Wadtucket is spamming the thread with Sweden news and claiming that the IFR is lower than seasonal flu and that countries that "locked down" (again, this exact definition varies from country to country) did not do any better, in any sense, here's some data.

It was mentioned that a study using a random sample of the population, showed that by May 1 about 30% of Stockholm could have been infected by COVID-19. If we assume that is correct, we can somewhat calculate the IFR at that point. Right now Sweden has 1.765 deaths, and has been averaging 90 deaths per day for the last 10 days. Which would mean if the trend continues in the next 10 days untill May 1, Sweden will have roughly 2.665 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Stockholm right now has 1.022 deaths, which would be 57% of the total in Sweden. So at May 1, we can assume that Stockholm will have 1.520 deaths. Stockholm has a population of about 974.073 people. If 30% of those have been infected at that time, that would be 292.221 infected people. Now, 1520 deaths out of 292.221 infected would be an IFR/mortality rate of 0,52%. The flu has an IFR of roughly 0,05%. So with these figures, COVID-19 would have an IFR that is 10 times higher than the flu. That's the first thing. Higher than I would honestly have expected actually, but definitely not a doomsday scenario (I need to underscore this because otherwise it will be used to obfuscate). Which we already knew.
https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/har-sprider-sig-coronaviruset/

Now, comparing Sweden to the two other Scandinavian countries, Denmark and Norway. Two countries that closed down fast and took it seriously early. Looking at the death per million and the trend:
2FrTb71.png

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

This is a logarithmic graph, not a linear one. What it shows is that Sweden has 10 times the per capita deaths compared to Norway, and 3 times that of Denmark. However it's still trending up and they are behind the curve, which has been going down in the other countries for a while now. Doesn't exactly support the argument that closing down more strictly didn't work/prevent deaths. Also, Denmark has a much higher population density, about 5 times that of Sweden, so we should have been hit harder.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/denmark-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-population/

Moreover, COVID-19 deaths seems to be underreported in Sweden as the rise in excess mortality isn't all accounted for:
oICdMl0.png

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Notice how Denmark and Norway have no excess, but Sweden is at very high for week 15, which will be the same for week 16, and most likely 17 and 18 as well (all you yanks that can't locate Scandinavia on a map, no shame I couldn't locate most of your states either. Just google it).

So, in summary, COVID-19 does not have an IFR lower than the flu in Sweden. Most likely it's 10 times higher. Also, Sweden is doing significantly worse than neighboring countries were more strict in their lockdown measures were taken early on. Now, this doesn't mean that Sweden wont manage. They will, and they'll get out of this alright. We know this, the world wont end. But facts are facts and being accurate is important. Further we have to acknowledge that Sweden has taken a lot of measures to prevent the spread and that business, and the economy, has taken a hit.

Oh and btw, just to brag a bit, Denmark is slowly opening up now and we still have a strong economy, as well as lower unemployment compared to our Swedish brethren. So guess we are doing something right.
 
Last edited:
Oeshon said:
By letting all the young and healthy people get sick and build immunity so that they can safely interact with old people. By only having to focus efforts on a smaller part of the population, we will have more resources to dedicate to helping them.

Old people need to stay isolated and let the world move forward.
Click to expand...

The young people can't do that if they're carrying the virus. All they'll do is infect the most vulnerable.
 
Oeshon said:
By letting all the young and healthy people get sick and build immunity so that they can safely interact with old people. By only having to focus efforts on a smaller part of the population, we will have more resources to dedicate to helping them.

Old people need to stay isolated and let the world move forward.
Click to expand...
That sounds like a plan that will lead to significantly more deaths
 
Btw, be prepared for US numbers to be high today with the lag from the weekend finally coming in. Eventhough NY is reporting low numbers so far, which is good! They've been trending down for a while now.
 
Sano said:
Since @Wadtucket is spamming the thread with Sweden news and claiming that the IFR is lower than seasonal flu and that countries that "locked down" (again, this exact definition varies from country to country) did not do any better, in any sense, here's some data.

It was mentioned that a study using a random sample of the population, showed that by May 1 about 30% of Stockholm could have been infected by COVID-19. If we assume that is correct, we can somewhat calculate the IFR at that point. Right now Sweden has 1.765 deaths, and have been averaging 90 deaths per day for the last 10 days. Which would mean if the trend continues that in the next 10 days untill May 1, Sweden will have roughly 2.665 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Stockholm right now has 1.022 deaths, which would be 57% of the total in Sweden. So at May 1, we can assume that Stockholm will have 1.520 deaths, which would be 57% of the total. Stockholm has a population of about 974.073 people. If 30% of those have been infected at that time, that would be 292.221 people. Now, 1520 deaths out of 292.221 people would be an IFR/mortality rate of 0,52%. The flu has an IFR of roughly up to 0,05%. So with these figures, COVID-19 would have an IFR that is 10 times higher than the flu. That's the first thing. Higher than I would honestly have expected actually, but definitely not a doomsday scenario (I need to underscore this because that will be used to obfuscate). Which we already knew.
https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/har-sprider-sig-coronaviruset/

Now, comparing Sweden to the two other Scandinavian countries, Denmark and Norway. Two countries that closed down fast and took it seriously early. Looking at the death per million and the trend:
2FrTb71.png

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

This is a logarithmic graph, not a linear one. What it shows is that Sweden has 10 times the per capita deaths compared to Norway, and 3 times that of Denmark. However it's still trending up and they are behind the curve, while it has been going down in the other countries for a while now. Doesn't exactly support the argument that closing down more strictly didn't work/prevent deaths. Also, Denmark has a much higher population density, about 5 times that of Sweden, so we should have been hit harder.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/denmark-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-population/

Moreover, COVID-19 deaths seems to be underreported in Sweden as the rise in excess mortality isn't all accounted for by corona deaths:
oICdMl0.png

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Notice how Denmark and Norway have no excess, but Sweden is at very high for week 15, which will be the same for week 16, and most likely 17 and 18 as well (all you yanks that can't locate Scandinavia on a map, no shame I couldn't locate most of your states either. Just google it).

So, in summary, COVID-19 deaths does not have an IFR lower than the flu in Sweden. Most likely it's 10 times higher. Also, Sweden is doing significantly worse than neighboring countries were more strict in their lockdown measures were taken early now. Now, this doesn't mean that Sweden wont manage. They will, and they'll get out of this alright. We know this, the world wont end. But facts are facts and being accurate is important. Further we have to acknowledge that Sweden has taken a lot of measures to prevent the spread and that business and the economy has taken a hit.

Oh and btw, just to brag a bit, Denmark is slowly opening up now and we still have a strong economy, as well as lower unemployment compared to our Swedish brethren, so guess we are doing something right.
Click to expand...
Worldwide consensus is that locking down, restricting the movement of people has been our best weapon against the virus.
The best countries you can compare Sweden to are the other two Scandinavian countries and the results are obvious.
 
trac209 said:
Did you even read what he said
Click to expand...

Yup, sure did.

All it takes is one false-negative from a young person and you can kiss Gam-Gam and Gee-Paw goodbye.

Bonus! You WON'T be able to attend the funerals either, but maybe they'll stream it on Facebook. I hear that's becoming more popular in these times...
 
News update for Monday, April 20th


Source: Guardian


More than 2.5 million infected
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University say at least 2.5 million people have now been infected, while more than 170,000 are know to have died worldwide.

The figures, which are based on official releases and media reports, are likely to underestimate the true scale of the pandemic due to suspected underreporting and differing testing regimes around the world.

UK hospital deaths rise by 823
The Department for Health and Social Care publishes the latest UK hospital death figures. There are 823 new deaths, taking the total to 17,337. Official figures also show that Covid-19 fatalities in care homes in England and Wales more than quadrupled in a week; rising to 1,043.

Vaccine trial to begin
The UK’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, says a team from the University of Oxford will begin trialling a vaccine on people from Thursday. He adds that the UK government has made £20m available to the team to accelerate their efforts, as well as making £22m available to researchers at Imperial to support their phase-two trials.

Italy records first significant fall in infections
Italy reports 534 new deaths on Tuesday; 80 more than on Monday, bringing the death toll to 24,648. But the number of people currently infected with the virus falls by 528 to 107,709; the first significant fall since the outbreak began.

Italy’s total cases to date, including victims and survivors, rose by 2,727 to 183,957.

New York’s death rate plateaus
The governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, announces that 481 people died on Monday, as the daily death toll remained flat from Sunday. “We have paid a tremendous price to control this beast,” Cuomo says of New York’s death toll, which is higher than that of any other US state.

Staying out of EU ventilator scheme was ‘political decision’
UK government ministers took a political decision not to be involved in an EU ventilator scheme, says Sir Simon McDonald, the Foreign Office permanent under-secretary, challenging previous claims that the UK did not take part due to missed emails.

Hancock later insists this is not the case, saying: “We did receive an invitation [at the Department for Health]. It was put up to me, and we joined.” By then, the UK had already missed an opportunity to join. The prime minister’s official spokesman has also said the government did not take part because the UK is no longer an EU member.

Brazil’s favelas stage their own fightback
The country’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, has described coronavirus as a “little flu” and resisted lockdown measures even as the death toll rises. But people in Rio’s poorest favelas are bracing for the worst and taking matters into her own hands. The Guardian reports on their improvised anti-pandemic measures.

UK government’s PPE claims under scrutiny
The leader of the opposition Labour party, Sir Keir Starmer, claims there is an “increasing gap” between government claims on PPE and reality. According to the BBC, he said: “What we’re seeing here is an increasing gap between what the government says or thinks is happening and what the frontline are telling us.”

Ministers have come under increasing pressure over shortages of equipment and deaths among British healthcare workers.

Mexico enters ‘most serious stage’
The country’s deputy health minister, Hugo López-Gatell, says it is entering “phase three” of its outbreak, adding: “We are in the phase of rapid spread where a large number of infections and hospitalisations are accumulated.”

Mexico has so far registered 712 coronavirus deaths and 8,772 infections, with 511 new cases reported on Monday.

Pamplona bull run cancelled
The annual event, where hundreds of daredevils play a risky and controversial game of catch-me-if-you-can with half-tonne fighting bulls, is the latest world-famous event to be cancelled, AFP reports.
 
Strychnine said:
Yup, sure did.

All it takes is one false-negative from a young person and you can kiss Gam-Gam and Gee-Paw goodbye.

Bonus! You WON'T be able to attend the funerals either, but maybe they'll stream it on Facebook. I hear that's becoming more popular in these times...
Click to expand...
Who has grandparents here that they are still visiting? Like wtf you can’t pass this along to family nobody is visiting.
 
trac209 said:
Who has grandparents here that they are still visiting? Like wtf you can’t pass this along to family nobody is visiting.
Click to expand...
You're a real piece of shit if you cant even be bothered to visit your own family. Im not surprised though
 
Hot mic at the White House catches conversation "So it's a hoax?"
 
evergreenrider said:
You're a real piece of shit if you cant even be bothered to visit your own family. Im not surprised though
Click to expand...
Are you fucked in the head. We are supposed to social distance you dipshit. My god are you retarded . Congratulations on the stupidest post ever.
 
evergreenrider said:
You're a real piece of shit if you cant even be bothered to visit your own family. Im not surprised though
Click to expand...
The plan makes sense if you're a complete sociopath. Mind you these people go back and forth between it's just the flu to so what if millions die? So take their opinions lightly.
 
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