International Covid-19 Breaking News v17: Russian PM infected

[LuchaBear]

lol at this sheep response.
The rich are the people who employ the masses, the people who make the economy. The people who own the factories and other big businesses that are being hurt by this pandemic. We need for people to actually have a place to return to work when this is over.

Lol at this sheep response.

 

[A Lurker]

lol at this sheep response.
The rich are the people who employ the masses, the people who make the economy. The people who own the factories and other big businesses that are being hurt by this pandemic. We need for people to actually have a place to return to work when this is over.

Will someone please think of the rich people during this pandemic? Or perhaps they could rely on charity instead? Or pull themselves up by their bootstraps?

 

[Sano]

If you use a factor of 25, which is half of the low end of the estimate shown in this study, and New York has 240k cases, that's six million already exposed to the virus. NYC has a population of 8.4 million, so that's 71 percent, which is at or close to herd immunity rate, depending on the R nought.

The main point of the stay at home measures is to alleviate the burden on the healthcare system. It is impractical to think that we can starve this virus out with such a long incubation period and asymptomatic spread. I've said it for a long time, and more posters are saying it, what we need to do is protect the elderly and the vulnerable, do more testing so as to ensure that that interact with the elderly and people with underlying conditions aren't infected and infect them, and fast track more treatment options, including recombinant antibody, until a viable vaccine is ready in a year.

There are some issues with extrapolating that data to NYC.

"An analysis of the blood of some 3,300 people living in Santa Clara county in early April found that one in every 66 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. On the basis of that finding, the researchers estimate that between 48,000 and 82,000 of the county’s roughly 2 million inhabitants were infected with the virus at that time — numbers that contrast sharply with the official case count of some 1,000 people reported in early April, according to the analysis posted today on medRxiv. The work has not yet been peer reviewed."

This is only a sample so without knowing the methodology it's hard to know how representative it is of the whole county. If we assume that it is to a high degree, what it tells us is that 2,4%-4,1% of Santa Clare had been infected with COVID-19 at that time. That's the first thing.

Second thing, and this is where it gets even trickier, is using this relative comparison between confirmed cases and actual infected from Santa Clare and transferring it to the rest of the country. As the article says, based on the antibodies Santa Clare has an 48-82x amount of actual infected compared to diagnosed cases. But there's something else we have to consider.
https://paloaltoonline.com/news/202...ents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

NY have tested about 600.000 people at this point, which is roughly 3% of their population. Of those, about 245.000 have tested positive, or 40%. California have tested about 280.000 people at this point, which is roughly 0,7% of their population. Of those about 31.000 have tested positive, so about 11%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So we know that NYC have tested about 4,3x more of their relative population size compared to California, and almost 4x more have tested positive out of that pool. What this means is that NYC data is way more accurate than Santa Clare in regards to the actual number of infected, which makes it almost impossible to extrapolate the underreported data in Santa Clare onto NYC.

With that said, there is no doubt that NYC has A LOT of their population infected. Probably more than any other place in the world outside of Lombardi. Doubt it's as high as 70% though, but hopefully we'll find out soon with more testing. Putting aside that the antibody tests seems a tad unreliable atm.

 

[Seano]

When you have many living paycheck to paycheck and a government that gets on it's knees for corporations, yes I do. That cheque given out and the non news of the next one is absurd compared to what every other major Western country has done. Add the fact that millions have lost their jobs, their "such great" employment medical insurance, ya it's these people who need the most focus from the government right now.

That "cheque"? You mean the stimulus check? The stimulus check isn't intended for survival. Thats what the increased unemployment benefits are for. You sound like you aren't really familiar with the CARES deal and are parroting incorrect things you heard form other uninformed people. There's money in there for small businesses to stay afloat and keep their employees on the payroll, there's the increase in unemployment bennies as I mentioned and more. Here- read up on it- https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares
The gov't "gets on its knees" for corporations because thats who people work for. Thats who generates revenue in this country. We need them when coronavirus has passed.

 

[Seano]

Will someone please think of the rich people during this pandemic? Or perhaps they could rely on charity instead? Or pull themselves up by their bootstraps?

Yeah, who cares if big business and corporations fail during this pandemic. People don't need to work. The economy isn't important or anything.

 

[nac386]

Have the CDC take over all nursing homes.

I say do whatever it takes to protect the elderly and compromised. And that enables alot of the country to open up.

What does the CDC taking over nursing homes look like? I don't understand what you mean by that.

 

[Revolver]

Jesus is my vaccine

dumbasses

 

[tonni]

Why do you think people that wear CBRN masks are idiots? Sounds like you're just upset that you don't have one.

These people are providing themselves and others with maximum safety.

Oh no I don't think they're idiots! I'd just feel like an idiot.

 

[A Lurker]

Yeah, who cares if big business and corporations fail during this pandemic. People don't need to work. The economy isn't important or anything.

Its spelt Jenius.

 

[BlacknBlue]

I agree with a lot of this but how do we protect the elderly and sick? In the midst of a shutdown, its nursing homes and assisted living facilities that are being hit especially hard.

Extreme measures should be taken for nursing homes and assisted living facilities, but a large majority of the elderly and sick population does not live in an assisted living facility. There is one thing Cuomo said that left the news wire quickly, but is worth repeating:

“If you rethought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don't know that you would say quarantine everyone,” Cuomo said during a press conference in Albany. “I don't even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people was probably not the best public health strategy because the younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection. “

If the idea is to achieve herd immunity, the best strategy would likely be to achieve it through infection of the 70% of the population that is the least at-risk for hospitalizing or death by the virus. The concept of quarantine for everyone instead of quarantine for just the old and sick not only destroyed people's jobs and lives, but was also likely self-defeating in a city like New York anyway.

If the idea is not to achieve herd immunity and basically lock-down and wait this virus out until we get a vaccine....well I don't know.

 

[San Marino]

Pole needs a "meh" option.

Poll needs to fix the mysterious 'f' at the end of the question...

 

[DangDaGawd]

dumbasses

"Jesus is my vaccine"

<{CMPALM}>

 

[BlacknBlue]

New daily cases in Michigan is at 576 today. Daily deaths is at 77. This is the lowest it has been in a long time besides a fluke number that I am pretty sure was incomplete on April 12.

 

[Long Branch]

Oh no I don't think they're idiots! I'd just feel like an idiot.

I just pretend everyone else around me is a zombie. It's kind of condescending but it helps and it's only temporary.

 

[PrinceOfPain]

She specifically voiced the expectation that the HIV + Covid-19 combination would spell doom.

Yeah. That, our widespread TB, and our very unequal access to quality healthcare have been on my mind since around February.
About 6% of the population is HIV-positive, and about 1% develop tuberculosis annually. We only have roughly 3000 critical care beds, last I checked. From what I know, it's not, strictly speaking the number of people who have HIV that's the problem, but the vast number of them who do not have access to anti-retrovirals.

We're a potential shit-show waiting to happen.

 

[tonni]

I just pretend everyone else around me is a zombie. It's kind of condescending but it helps and it's only temporary.

Yeah it's perfect!

 

[JDragon]

There are some issues with extrapolating that data to NYC.

"An analysis of the blood of some 3,300 people living in Santa Clara county in early April found that one in every 66 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. On the basis of that finding, the researchers estimate that between 48,000 and 82,000 of the county’s roughly 2 million inhabitants were infected with the virus at that time — numbers that contrast sharply with the official case count of some 1,000 people reported in early April, according to the analysis posted today on medRxiv. The work has not yet been peer reviewed."

This is only a sample so without knowing the methodology it's hard to know how representative it is of the whole county. If we assume that it is to a high degree, what it tells us is that 2,4%-4,1% of Santa Clare had been infected with COVID-19 at that time. That's the first thing.

Second thing, and this is where it gets even trickier, is using this relative comparison between confirmed cases and actual infected from Santa Clare and transferring it to the rest of the country. As the article says, based on the antibodies Santa Clare has an 48-82x amount of actual infected compared to diagnosed cases. But there's something else we have to consider.
https://paloaltoonline.com/news/202...ents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

NY have tested about 600.000 people at this point, which is roughly 3% of their population. Of those, about 245.000 have tested positive, or 40%. California have tested about 280.000 people at this point, which is roughly 0,7% of their population. Of those about 31.000 have tested positive, so about 11%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So we know that NYC have tested about 4,3x more of their relative population size compared to California, and almost 4x more have tested positive out of that pool. What this means is that NYC data is way more accurate than Santa Clare in regards to the actual number of infected, which makes it almost impossible to extrapolate the underreported data in Santa Clare onto NYC.

With that said, there is no doubt that NYC has A LOT of their population infected. Probably more than any other place in the world outside of Lombardi. Doubt it's as high as 70% though, but hopefully we'll find out soon with more testing. Putting aside that the antibody tests seems a tad unreliable atm.

Quality post.

I think one general problem with all of that calculating is the question of ... what does it all mean?

We cannot be sure infections = future immunity. And it also does seem like this is a mutation-happy virus (just like the flu...this once), so again, that also would be horrible news for vaccine effectiveness.

 

[Revolver]

"Jesus is my vaccine"

<{CMPALM}>

"my body my choice"

 

[K1levelgrappler]

lmao great idea

 

[Sano]

Quality post.

I think one general problem with all of that calculating is the question of ... what does it all mean?

We cannot be sure infections = future immunity. And it also does seem like this is a mutation-happy virus (just like the flu...this once), so again, that also would be horrible news for vaccine effectiveness.

Exactly. We don't know yet if immunity will work (mutations), we don't know exactly how reliable antibody testing is (false positives), we can't be sure that infections in one state scale to infections in other states, and so on. Lots of unknowns.

It's definitely good that more data is being gathered, but I feel like the "we dont know" should be hammered home when presenting something that has as many limitations as the evidence in the study does.