Costa will destroy Vettori

[AFewDollarsMore]

I'd rather have Costa around than Vettori. If he could just get back on track:

 

[Prince Nephilim]

This is one of the best MW fights in a while. Both only have a single lost to the champion and in the UFC.

If we go by MMAth…then Vettori should win but it’s really anyones game.

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

Why do you think Paulo is a better striker than Marvin? KO's? Body punching?

Because Romero would have taken Vettori's head off.

Look, stylistically Vettori's striking matches up better with Izzy's, but in most other cases Costas striking matches up better with other people. Vettori was decent against Izzy because he has decent jabs and straights, and doesn't get himself out of position too much while throwing shots. Plus, Vettori's lean back head movement is actually solid.

All those things meant that he works decently against a counterstriker like Izzy (I mean, he obviously lost but he didn't get dropped or anything).

As long as it's a 3 round fight Costas pressure and combinations should win him the fight, although I could see Vettori's jab giving him problems, so it depends if Costa has a decent way to deal with that or not. Once he is on the inside he will wreck Vettori imo. Vettori's boxing in the pocket consists of lean back counters and low power hooks, and Costas body work is a good counter the lean.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

50% of people have that fight to Romero. His best win is gassing out against an inactive Romero.

Marvin is gonna kill him. Costa is a hype job. Feel free to reference this when it happens.

A 50/50 fight with Romero is pretty good though.

What is Vettori’s best win? Being half a notch better than Hermansson? Laying on Holland?

His UFC career is grindy decision wins against mostly unranked guys. I don’t think he has a single knockout and he’s got maybe a sub or two.

I’m not seeing why people think he’s a contender.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Because Romero would have taken Vettori's head off.

Look, stylistically Vettori's striking matches up better with Izzy's, but in most other cases Costas striking matches up better with other people. Vettori was decent against Izzy because he has decent jabs and straights, and doesn't get himself out of position too much while throwing shots. Plus, Vettori's lean back head movement is actually solid.

All those things meant that he works decently against a counterstriker like Izzy (I mean, he obviously lost but he didn't get dropped or anything).

As long as it's a 3 round fight Costas pressure and combinations should win him the fight, although I could see Vettori's jab giving him problems, so it depends if Costa has a decent way to deal with that or not. Once he is on the inside he will wreck Vettori imo. Vettori's boxing in the pocket consists of lean back counters and low power hooks, and Costas body work is a good counter the lean.

Bingo. Real chael has never had a take this accurate.

 

[grombo]

I have a feeling Vettori is going to eat his shots and grind him til' total exhaustion.
Everyone will say Marvin is mediocre and boring afterwards and that Costa was always terrible.

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

Bingo. Real chael has never had a take this accurate.

Thank you!

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Marvin seems like he signs his legal documents with crayons.

Also may have the worst name in mma not involving the phrases “assassin” or “pitbull.”

I bet he wanted to go with the Pitbull Assassin before being talked out of it.

The generic nationality nicknames might be even lamer honestly.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

I have a feeling Vettori is going to eat his shots and grind him til' total exhaustion.

Everyone will say Marvin is mediocre and boring afterwards and that Costa was always terrible.

I’ll say those things now if it helps.

 

[Huligani]

Yeah he will.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Thank you!

I’d also add to your analysis that jabs have given Costa problems before. Hall drilled him repeatedly but just couldn’t hold up under the monsoon of violence, and Yoel eventually realized by round three that quick jabs would land all night.

So yea, can definitely see Marv’s jab landing clean and he should use it liberally. Circle, hard jab, circle, hard jab, would be a good gameplan IMO. Costa doesn’t adjust at all so he should keep walking right into it. Question is whether Marv is capable of aiming for a tactical decision win like that or if he’ll get baited into a firefight.

 

[Gummibärchen]

Because Romero would have taken Vettori's head off.
Look, stylistically Vettori's striking matches up better with Izzy's, but in most other cases Costas striking matches up better with other people. Vettori was decent against Izzy because he has decent jabs and straights, and doesn't get himself out of position too much while throwing shots. Plus, Vettori's lean back head movement is actually solid.

All those things meant that he works decently against a counterstriker like Izzy (I mean, he obviously lost but he didn't get dropped or anything).

As long as it's a 3 round fight Costas pressure and combinations should win him the fight, although I could see Vettori's jab giving him problems, so it depends if Costa has a decent way to deal with that or not. Once he is on the inside he will wreck Vettori imo. Vettori's boxing in the pocket consists of lean back counters and low power hooks, and Costas body work is a good counter the lean.

Have we ever seen Costa's wrestling tested? Marvin looked elite in the grappling exchanges against Hermansson, even though I'll admit that he disappointed me against Izzy.
I think that a possible path to Marvin's victory could be jabs and takedowns behind the jab. And I trust that Cordero will come up with something much better than that.
With that, I agree with your take that Romero would have been a terrible matchup for Marvin. Because clearly the grappling route would have never worked. Against Costa, I favor my boy Marvin. Something like 60/40 or so.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Vettori doesn't get hurt and has elite cardio. In a 5 round fight Costa is going to drown in the 4th or 5th round.

 

[drbolony]

Because Romero would have taken Vettori's head off.

Look, stylistically Vettori's striking matches up better with Izzy's, but in most other cases Costas striking matches up better with other people. Vettori was decent against Izzy because he has decent jabs and straights, and doesn't get himself out of position too much while throwing shots. Plus, Vettori's lean back head movement is actually solid.

All those things meant that he works decently against a counterstriker like Izzy (I mean, he obviously lost but he didn't get dropped or anything).

As long as it's a 3 round fight Costas pressure and combinations should win him the fight, although I could see Vettori's jab giving him problems, so it depends if Costa has a decent way to deal with that or not. Once he is on the inside he will wreck Vettori imo. Vettori's boxing in the pocket consists of lean back counters and low power hooks, and Costas body work is a good counter the lean.

Yeah man, that's Romero, everything about a Romero fight is unpredictable, the man's an athletic freak. Not a very good fight to use as a comparison imo as even Whittaker and Adesanya just edged by him.

You nailed Vettori's game, so I don't understand how you're coming to your conclusion. I guess we just see things playing out differently presented with the same information. Everything I have to add to the discussion is about Paulo's game.

So basically all you brought up on the Paulo front were his combinations, body punching, and pressure. Now about Paulo's pressure, it's not as great as people think it is. He cuts the cage at times, but he's amateur at best, and is mostly content with marching you down. Paulo throws jabs but doesn't really work behind them, making his pressure that much less effective. His combinations consist of wild hooks, at times ending with a body hook if the opponent is shelling up, but mostly ends up top with a left hook. He has decent kicks, very powerful, and mostly used to block his opponents exit. This he does well and I can't say much about it other than he could be a little faster, but this is a strong area of his game.

The thing about Paulo's body punching is that he's gotten a reputation for it, but 90% of the time he's doing it against the cage when his opponent is shelling up, he's not this great body whisperer he was made out to be. And I'll reiterate, he's not a great cage cutter, so unless Paulo is already up in the fight, this probably won't be a go to weapon for him.

So without the body punching, and basic pressure that Vettori see's all the time at Kings MMA (of all places) I really don't see much danger for Marvin here. I like that you acknowledged Vettori's jab, it is pretty good and I think it will be a huge factor in this fight. Uriah Hall isn't the best jabber (as seen most recently in the Sean Strickland fight) and he was busting Paulo's face up with a very basic jab. Adesanya also gave him all he could handle with just jabs and low kicks. Paulo should be praying every night that he didn't have to stand in front of Whittaker cause Rob would've finished what Izzy started and made Paulo completely mentally check out of the sport.

The jab, Paulos basic striking, his time out, and mental state are all very real factors for his return imo.

 

[blaccbeard]

How is Costa going to destroy him? Costa doesnt destroy anyone and he has no KO power and Vettori has never been stopped anyway.

Plus Vettori has way better wrestling, i think you're overrating Costa and underrating Vettori way too much.

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

I’d also add to your analysis that jabs have given Costa problems before. Hall drilled him repeatedly but just couldn’t hold up under the monsoon of violence, and Yoel eventually realized by round three that quick jabs would land all night.

So yea, can definitely see Marv’s jab landing clean and he should use it liberally. Circle, hard jab, circle, hard jab, would be a good gameplan IMO. Costa doesn’t adjust at all so he should keep walking right into it. Question is whether Marv is capable of aiming for a tactical decision win like that or if he’ll get baited into a firefight.

Yeah, the Uriah fight was the one I was thinking about when I was mentioning Vettori's jab. However, while Vettori's jab is solid moving forward, I haven't seen evidence of it being good on the back foot, which is probably where he will be all fight.

As you say, Vettori should be smart and circle and jab.

Whether he will do that is entirely up to his tiny little brain lol.

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

Have we ever seen Costa's wrestling tested? Marvin looked elite in the grappling exchanges against Hermansson, even though I'll admit that he disappointed me against Izzy.
I think that a possible path to Marvin's victory could be jabs and takedowns behind the jab. And I trust that Cordero will come up with something much better than that.
With that, I agree with your take that Romero would have been a terrible matchup for Marvin. Because clearly the grappling route would have never worked. Against Costa, I favor my boy Marvin. Something like 60/40 or so.

Costa is a pretty legit black belt. Plus, his wrestling looked good in the brief exchanges with Romero. I agree about the jabs, but I don't have faith in Vettori's gameplanning after the Izzy fight.

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

Yeah man, that's Romero, everything about a Romero fight is unpredictable, the man's an athletic freak. Not a very good fight to use as a comparison imo as even Whittaker and Adesanya just edged by him.

You nailed Vettori's game, so I don't understand how you're coming to your conclusion. I guess we just see things playing out differently presented with the same information. Everything I have to add to the discussion is about Paulo's game.

So basically all you brought up on the Paulo front were his combinations, body punching, and pressure. Now about Paulo's pressure, it's not as great as people think it is. He cuts the cage at times, but he's amateur at best, and is mostly content with marching you down. Paulo throws jabs but doesn't really work behind them, making his pressure that much less effective. His combinations consist of wild hooks, at times ending with a body hook if the opponent is shelling up, but mostly ends up top with a left hook. He has decent kicks, very powerful, and mostly used to block his opponents exit. This he does well and I can't say much about it other than he could be a little faster, but this is a strong area of his game.

The thing about Paulo's body punching is that he's gotten a reputation for it, but 90% of the time he's doing it against the cage when his opponent is shelling up, he's not this great body whisperer he was made out to be. And I'll reiterate, he's not a great cage cutter, so unless Paulo is already up in the fight, this probably won't be a go to weapon for him.

So without the body punching, and basic pressure that Vettori see's all the time at Kings MMA (of all places) I really don't see much danger for Marvin here. I like that you acknowledged Vettori's jab, it is pretty good and I think it will be a huge factor in this fight. Uriah Hall isn't the best jabber (as seen most recently in the Sean Strickland fight) and he was busting Paulo's face up with a very basic jab. Adesanya also gave him all he could handle with just jabs and low kicks. Paulo should be praying every night that he didn't have to stand in front of Whittaker cause Rob would've finished what Izzy started and made Paulo completely mentally check out of the sport.

The jab, Paulos basic striking, his time out, and mental state are all very real factors for his return imo.

I agree with your assessment of his body punching, and his pressure, and most of the rest imo, and I agree that Vettori has a better leading jab than Uriah, but I think off the back foot Uriahs jab is probably significantly better and more importantly hits a shit ton harder than Vettori's will. That's my main problem with Vettori. He is pillowfisted in most exchanges apart from ones where he is leading and throwing a one two. I don't think he or his jab has the power to keep Costa off him, and his footwork didn't impress me in the Izzy fight, and I doubt he will be able to circle properly around Costa for long. His lean back might give Costa some problems, because Costa tends to throw long combos, but if Costa is decently smart he should be able to make the adjustment to either pressure harder or go to the body.

Costas mental state will be interesting, and could be very bad for him, but I'm not sure Vettori is the guy to exploit that to it's fullest potential.

It could go either way, but I think Costa wins a decision. 60/40 to Costa in my eyes.

 

[drbolony]

I agree with your assessment of his body punching, and his pressure, and most of the rest imo, and I agree that Vettori has a better leading jab than Uriah, but I think off the back foot Uriahs jab is probably significantly better and more importantly hits a shit ton harder than Vettori's will. That's my main problem with Vettori. He is pillowfisted in most exchanges apart from ones where he is leading and throwing a one two. I don't think he or his jab has the power to keep Costa off him, and his footwork didn't impress me in the Izzy fight, and I doubt he will be able to circle properly around Costa for long. His lean back might give Costa some problems, because Costa tends to throw long combos, but if Costa is decently smart he should be able to make the adjustment to either pressure harder or go to the body.

Costas mental state will be interesting, and could be very bad for him, but I'm not sure Vettori is the guy to exploit that to it's fullest potential.

It could go either way, but I think Costa wins a decision. 60/40 to Costa in my eyes.

Idk brother, looked pretty decent on the back foot against Hermansson, which is one of his most recent performances. I think he'll be fine. Not saying it's an easy fight, but I favor Marvin 70-30, possibly even 80-20 based on the styles match up and previously mentioned outside factors.

 

[abject]

He tried.

Thanks. I just want to this costa again. He badly underperformed against Izzy. That said, Vettori has the chin to take what Costa hands out.
Edit: I'm still made Yoel got cut. WTF. I would still watch the hell out of his fights. Fuck the ufc.