Law Coronavirus the US GOV'T Response analysis Thread

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To put these numbers into perspective for some of you:

At the beginning of the month the US had less than 50 cases. At the end of the month it has over 125,000 cases. The mortality rates continue to fluctuate and there is no accurate infection modeling that can predict what it will be in 30 days. The best example here is describing the difference between Italy and Germany they are not alike in confirmed cases or mortality. It would be incredibly naive to make modeling assumptions based on what other countries are seeing -

What you see now are the mortality rates as they are reflected by current medical capability. The number - let's call it 1% (right now) is based on capacity/equipment/personnel currently available. When the cases rise to 1M, 10M, or 50M in the US you will see that mortality rate increase comparatively. Will it be 5%?. I don't think anyone can really answer that yet. What would the mortality rate be if someone did not have access to hospitals, ventilators, or treatment? There will probably be a point where a portion of the population who will not have access.
 
TheOldMan said:
The people I quoted sure seem to believe them which in turn begs the question as to why you'd get involved in this one to begin with.

I like your digitized AV virus mask.
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Presidents typically are their highest approval ratings soon after a crisis, Bush was 90+% after 9/11 for example

Trump's current numbers have the most benefit of the doubt they'll ever have. As people start understanding why we're blowing away Italy's totals it will only sink. With no sports or entertainment and trump seemingly relishing his daily presser fatigue will creep in. Normally apathetic people with nothing to do at home will realize just how fucking stupid this guy is.

I doubt anyone who supports donny will be pointing to that number in two months or even two weeks as we cross 1k+ daily deaths
 
Stoic1 said:
What you see now are the mortality rates as they are reflected by current medical capability.
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It's not just that. It's also the fact that a lot of these people will obviously be newly infected and simply haven't had time to get very sick or die yet. You see it in most places. Death rates are low to begin with, but then they climb. Here in Norway, for instance, the death rate was 0.3% a couple of weeks ago. Now it has doubled. Same thing in Korea etc. Without any hospitals being overwhelmed yet.
 
TheOldMan said:
By accident. You're right, you haven't said anything (that I noticed anyway), so my bad.
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Yeah I am. I have this disease called "I hate morons". You've proven in this thread that you fall into that category so it's fallen upon me to provide education and training. Hopefully you'll read the articles I linked and start feeling better so the rest of us don't have to read your nonsense.



What's pathetic is you taking good news and making it bad due to your TDS. LOL at you.
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Good news that the worse response to a crisis in modern history gets the bump it’s deserved and you think it’s good. Lol

You suffered from TDS. Seek help. People like you are dangerous to the rest of us because you aren’t capable of understanding when you are being manipulated.
 
Stoic1 said:
To put these numbers into perspective for some of you:

At the beginning of the month the US had less than 50 cases. At the end of the month it has over 125,000 cases. The mortality rates continue to fluctuate and there is no accurate infection modeling that can predict what it will be in 30 days. The best example here is describing the difference between Italy and Germany they are not alike in confirmed cases or mortality. It would be incredibly naive to make modeling assumptions based on what other countries are seeing -

What you see now are the mortality rates as they are reflected by current medical capability. The number - let's call it 1% (right now) is based on capacity/equipment/personnel currently available. When the cases rise to 1M, 10M, or 50M in the US you will see that mortality rate increase comparatively. Will it be 5%?. I don't think anyone can really answer that yet. What would the mortality rate be if someone did not have access to hospitals, ventilators, or treatment? There will probably be a point where a portion of the population who will not have access.
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as of yesterday, cdc data has US at 1.7% fatality rate 122,653 cases and 2112 deaths (Hope rush is OK).....Italy is at 11% 97,689 and 10779 deaths...
The best I could tell/I did not find this on cdc but a google search...
Louisiana leads US with a 4.3% rate 3540 and 151
Georgia is at 3.1% 2683 and 83

what I’m not sure of is what is the rate on those Cruise ships...I’m started to wonder why the rate isn’t 50%...
 
Behind the scenes according to people around the DNC are begging Andrew Cuomo to run for President. They are floating the idea that they could have a brokered convention and that the fact that you see little if anything of Biden during this time is the reason why. Bernie supporters could make a big case about medicare for all because health insurers are floating the idea of a 40 percent jump in premiums next year if the Government does nothing for them. But right now Cuomo is the new shiny object of their desires.
 
 
blottstein said:
Presidents typically are their highest approval ratings soon after a crisis, Bush was 90+% after 9/11 for example

Trump's current numbers have the most benefit of the doubt they'll ever have. As people start understanding why we're blowing away Italy's totals it will only sink. With no sports or entertainment and trump seemingly relishing his daily presser fatigue will creep in. Normally apathetic people with nothing to do at home will realize just how fucking stupid this guy is.

I doubt anyone who supports donny will be pointing to that number in two months or even two weeks as we cross 1k+ daily deaths
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First off I appreciate the intelligent reply.

I'm not normally one to throw numbers and polls around, I just grow tired of all the screaming and flailing by people who bitch for the sake of bitching. If Trump cured cancer many of these fucktards would complain about it.

I've maintained all along that it's way too early to pass judgement. This issue isn't something that any of us can say with certainty how well or unwell it's being handled, the scope and magnitude is simply too big. It's an issue that time will answer.

While I think Trump really is a great President (we'll just have to agree to disagree), I'm not partisan enough to blindly back him at every turn. In six months or so when we have a clear view I'll either support what he's done or condemn it at some measure in between.

In short it's just too early for me without more results, or lack there of.
 
 


Howard Sterns asking good questions.
 
Stoic1 said:
To put these numbers into perspective for some of you:

At the beginning of the month the US had less than 50 cases. At the end of the month it has over 125,000 cases. The mortality rates continue to fluctuate and there is no accurate infection modeling that can predict what it will be in 30 days. The best example here is describing the difference between Italy and Germany they are not alike in confirmed cases or mortality. It would be incredibly naive to make modeling assumptions based on what other countries are seeing -

What you see now are the mortality rates as they are reflected by current medical capability. The number - let's call it 1% (right now) is based on capacity/equipment/personnel currently available. When the cases rise to 1M, 10M, or 50M in the US you will see that mortality rate increase comparatively. Will it be 5%?. I don't think anyone can really answer that yet. What would the mortality rate be if someone did not have access to hospitals, ventilators, or treatment? There will probably be a point where a portion of the population who will not have access.
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There is no way there were only 50 people infected in the US a month ago.

50 confirmed maybe... I think we’ll find that at least one strain (S) of this virus has been floating around for awhile.... maybe as far back as November.

However, it does seem that the more aggressive strain (L) came out of China in the last couple of months.

I’m surprised there isn’t more discussion in the news about the two main versions of COV19. There were some articles in early March, but not much since.
 
Scerpi said:
There is no way there were only 50 people infected in the US a month ago.

50 confirmed maybe... I think we’ll find that at least one strain (S) of this virus has been floating around for awhile.... maybe as far back as November.

However, it does seem that the more aggressive strain (L) came out of China in the last couple of months.

I’m surprised there isn’t more discussion in the news about the two main versions of COV19. There were some articles in early March, but not much since.
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My data is coming from CDC, John Hopkins, and WHO numbers.

You had approx 50 confirmed cases a month ago. You now have approx 125k confirmed cases today. You are never going to get perfect numbers. And I wasn't looking to. I was making the point of exponential growth in relation to the medical capacity in the US as it relates to mortality rate modeling.
 
PEB said:


Trumps body language says everything......he does not give a crap about anyone but himself....
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barack-obama.jpg


You were saying....
 
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