International Coronavirus Breaking News, v10: U.K Health Minister has become the first British MP to test positive

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JoeyJoeJoeJr said:
My work has gone mad. 34 cases in the entire province of 14.5 million. My work has made a coronavirus questionnaire for all visitors. Wtf
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. This is going to be common in the next few weeks especially in spots of infection.
 
Rob Battisti said:
South Korea has shown what AGGRESSIVE testing and isolation can do. Italy has shown what low testing and low isolation can do. What path would you say the USA has taken?
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I dont think you understand the numbers. South Korea has the highest number of infected people, no amount of isolation changes that.

The rate of death is between 0.6-0.7% and dropping as they find more that are infected and not showing symptoms.

Like I said, show me the data that this epidemic is causing problems. I'm revisiting the data because it was released this morning, and decided to do my own data analysis since I happen to work for a nationwide health provider.

We dont do testing that South Korea does, I acknowledge that, so I'm simply presenting unbiased data as it comes.

For the past three years, chest illnesses are down for the month of February

For the past four weeks, chest illnesses have been relatively the same, a slight decrease of less than 1%, which I dont find statistically relevant.

I was expecting for these numbers to skyrocket. They are not.

if you have different data, please present.
 
chardog said:
Trump and others comparing this to the flu is starting to make a point, and likely to be correct if all this data I'm looking through is playing out. A few weeks back, that type of talk would be premature, and we've seen the drastic actions taken by the chinese.

South Korea just came out with numbers, and I posted it previously. They have many thousands infected, and tested 200,000, pretty good significance. Mortality rate has dropped. This flu season has been dramatically less impact than previous years, and the death by flu + covid19, will not exceed last year's flu alone, I'm not seeing those numbers materialize.

Fatality rate of South Korea stands at 0.6-0.7%, and more testing is surely going to drop those numbers. If that silly cult would agree on treatment, death toll would likely be even lower.
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If we didn't try to fight this thing it would put us out of action. It is worse than the flu without a doubt.
 
chardog said:
as I mentioned in the last thread, it's likely that high heat is the reason why. philipines, thailand, cambodia, vietnam, singapore, all similar hot weather, and the virus likely doesnt transmit well under those conditions. "Flu Season" is a real thing, and the virus likely following that trend.

I'll just say one little tidbit, we deal with millions of patients a year at our work, and a simple query for all chest related illnesses reveals for the month of february for the past three years, our volume is down by quite a bit, meaning this flu season is not particularly bad, and the virus wont make up the difference. I'm expecting more volume, but just not the case.
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I just read WHO said heat does not affect Corna its getting hot already in the Philippines and our cases are starting to mount first non travel cases.
 
SammyPops said:
Honestly bro, you need to relax. A 4% fatality rate is going to kill a lot of people but not end life as we know it.
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You're forgetting the all the related deaths from people defending themselves from thieves, random and premeditated murders, deaths from car accidents by people coronavirusing and driving etc.

It's best to try and contain it so society doesn't break down.
 
In a close to home question, anything beyond “probably worse than the average person, possibility but unknown to transfer to baby” for if a pregnant woman catches Corona?

guessing not much and google pulled up a few unclear cases. But maybe someone looking into this more than me has come across something more concrete
 
Long Branch said:
If we didn't try to fight this thing it would put us out of action. It is worse than the flu without a doubt.
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it seems to be worse technically, however, the initial numbers of 20-30x worse does not seem to be the case anymore. The more the data comes in, it's showing that it's only 6-7x more deadly and dropping. The totals also matter very much, chest illnesses have not increased over the past four weeks, there has been a slight decrease. I'm not saying we should have big crowds during this time, I'm saying that this thing is not nearly as bad as projected only a few weeks back, and the RATE of fatality is an extremely unreliable number currently.

We dont test much in the US, but I have other ways of looking at the data, simply based on chest illnesses. It's not an exact science, but it should get you an idea if our hospitals are being raided with patients "not tested" for coronavirus. These numbers are not as easily falsified.
 
trac209 said:
. This is going to be common in the next few weeks especially in spots of infection.
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But this isnt an infection heavy area, zero cases in my city and only 30 in the province of 14.5million. Its a ridiculous overreaction
 
HockeyBjj said:
In a close to home question, anything beyond “probably worse than the average person, possibility but unknown to transfer to baby” for if a pregnant woman catches Corona?

guessing not much and google pulled up a few unclear cases. But maybe someone looking into this more than me has come across something more concrete
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kids are safe from this virus, the likelihood of fatality from coronavirus is extremely low (unlike H1N1, which targeted kids more than adults).
 
chardog said:
I dont think you understand the numbers. South Korea has the highest number of infected people, no amount of isolation changes that.

The rate of death is between 0.6-0.7% and dropping as they find more that are infected and not showing symptoms.

Like I said, show me the data that this epidemic is causing problems. I'm revisiting the data because it was released this morning, and decided to do my own data analysis since I happen to work for a nationwide health provider.

We dont do testing that South Korea does, I acknowledge that, so I'm simply presenting unbiased data as it comes.

For the past three years, chest illnesses are down for the month of February

For the past four weeks, chest illnesses have been relatively the same, a slight decrease of less than 1%, which I dont find statistically relevant.

I was expecting for these numbers to skyrocket. They are not.

if you have different data, please present.
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I’ll find the chart. The issue is with latency in testing which causes the stress on the healthcare system. If you test, confirm, isolate and trace— you slow down the spread. If you fail to do those things you then overload the system and you get more of an exponential growth hit. Which is what we are seeing in Italy, Iran, France etc.

USA has done an abysmal job at any testing whatsoever. Now, instead of tracing and tracking, we basically said F it let it ride. Which will cause panic and healthcare system overload. This will increase the chances of higher mortality rates as well.


Edit: how do you post pictures from your phone?
 
chardog said:
I dont think you understand the numbers. South Korea has the highest number of infected people, no amount of isolation changes that.

The rate of death is between 0.6-0.7% and dropping as they find more that are infected and not showing symptoms.

Like I said, show me the data that this epidemic is causing problems. I'm revisiting the data because it was released this morning, and decided to do my own data analysis since I happen to work for a nationwide health provider.

We dont do testing that South Korea does, I acknowledge that, so I'm simply presenting unbiased data as it comes.

For the past three years, chest illnesses are down for the month of February

For the past four weeks, chest illnesses have been relatively the same, a slight decrease of less than 1%, which I dont find statistically relevant.

I was expecting for these numbers to skyrocket. They are not.

if you have different data, please present.
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chardog said:
numbers matter, the statistics are starting to show, that the virus isnt as bad as initially thought.

South Korea has the most rigorous lab testing out of any nation, also among the hardest hit.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...avirus-is-coming-under-control/7411583754290/

200,000 tested, around 7500 infected, 51 dead, starting to see a bit more clear with these types of numbers. South Korea is the eye of the tornado.
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it's a shame that the US doesn't try to follow their lead.
 
chardog said:
it seems to be worse technically, however, the initial numbers of 20-30x worse does not seem to be the case anymore. The more the data comes in, it's showing that it's only 6-7x more deadly and dropping. The totals also matter very much, chest illnesses have not increased over the past four weeks, there has been a slight decrease. I'm not saying we should have big crowds during this time, I'm saying that this thing is not nearly as bad as projected only a few weeks back, and the RATE of fatality is an extremely unreliable number currently.

We dont test much in the US, but I have other ways of looking at the data, simply based on chest illnesses. It's not an exact science, but it should get you an idea if our hospitals are being raided with patients "not tested" for coronavirus. These numbers are not as easily falsified.
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Iran is hurting bad without containment and those numbers would be way worse if Italy did nothing. I think the reason the numbers are where they are at is because of the efforts to contain it. Wait 28 days later to see if the incubation period will make this virus explode. We're not seeing the natural progression of the virus.

No one wants their older family members to die in such a horrible way without an ICU so these precautionary measures are necessary.
 
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chardog said:
kids are safe from this virus, the likelihood of fatality from coronavirus is extremely low (unlike H1N1, which targeted kids more than adults).
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unborn kids? Wifey at 20 weeks which is my concern with Corona. If it was just me and her I’d be a lot more relaxed about everything and just taking it in stride.

I have seen that for whatever reason kids seem less affected so hopefully community spread in my area can just hold off until July
 
Lonesome Crow said:
A clade is a group of organisms that share a common ancestor. The tweet is essentially stating that they ran DNA sequencing on viral particles isolated from patients worldwide and then identified three clades. So essentially, three subtypes of Covid-19.

For comparison, HIV has two main viral types, 1 and 2. HIV-1 has 4 subgroups; of those subgroups, subgroup M has 14 clades.

In other words, Covid-19 having three clades, is interesting but not really applicable to containment or treatment.
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Thank you for the explanation, sir.
 
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