Contenders Series 2024 - Week 3

[B.Goetz]

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[Thesnake101]

Fading Bogdan as a favorite on account of him being Nolan's son.

 

[Mackronus]

Crickets in here....

 

[Thesnake101]

Crickets in here....

Truth be told, I don't know if there's much value this week. Only one fight is almost at even odds, and the rest have clear favorites which range from moderate to big, also a lot of padded records.

 

[B.Goetz]

Had Wellmaker big at -210, but got cold feet and hedged down at unfavourable odds. So...

Wellmaker $99.42 to win $38.61

 

[B.Goetz]

Final adjustments, as the lines have become favourable again.

Wellmaker $99.94 to win $46.48 = -215

Does everybody move the lines, or am I just B. fuckin' Goetz? I'm moving the lines all over the place. Anyway, locked in.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I played the overs in every fight except Duffy-Piccininni. None of these guys are great finishers.

Theres value on Duclos DEC (+1200) and Bramhald DEC (+475). If Duclos can keep the fight standing he should look close to 50% and Brahmhald should be the minute winner against Wellmaker if he does not get knocked out.

 

[B.Goetz]

Bramhald DEC (+475)

If Bramhald wins, I do think it's by decision. Unless he gets grappled. Some unknowns here, but I do believe you've identified value at +475.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I played the overs in every fight except Duffy-Piccininni. None of these guys are great finishers.

Theres value on Duclos DEC (+1200) and Bramhald DEC (+475). If Duclos can keep the fight standing he should look close to 50% and Brahmhald should be the minute winner against Wellmaker if he does not get knocked out.

I think with it being his second time here that Tulio is probably just going to take him down and fuck him up.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I think with it being his second time here that Tulio is probably just going to take him down and fuck him up.

Thats the most likely outcome but the fact that Duclos trains with BSD and is managed by Bulgarian Top Team is a positive sign imo that he can potentially defend Tulio's takedowns? His takedown defense looked fine in his earlier fights albeit against low level competition.

I don't think either of these guys is that dangerous on the feet, nor do I think either has a big striking advantage over the other. so I can see this going the distance if Duclos does not have a huge grappling hole.

 

[PuertoRican]

Watching Piccininni reminds me why I don't want to lay big chalk when betting on Bo Nickal.

While Nickal is a better striker than Piccininni, I haven't seen enough to say Nickal's striking is above average.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'd give it to Piccininni 2-1, but he's nowhere near UFC ready. His cardio and skills aren't up to par.

 

[TeamVamos]

Seemed like Duffy edged it. Paccinini won off that last bit of grappling

 

[Macaque]

Marco Túlio + Over 1,5 Rounds @2,75
Over 1,5 Rounds @2,10

 

[PuertoRican]

Wellmaker looks legit

 

[B.Goetz]

Final adjustments, as the lines have become favourable again.

Wellmaker $99.94 to win $46.48 = -215

= $46.48

Wellmaker needs to learn to check low kicks, and the KO seemed to be more a result of Bramhald's poor defence than great boxing by Wellmaker. I don't think he'll go that far, given his age.

 

[PuertoRican]

= $46.48

Wellmaker needs to learn to check low kicks, and the KO seemed to be more a result of Bramhald's poor defence than great boxing by Wellmaker. I don't think he'll go that far, given his age.

I agree. He needs the right matchup for me to invest heavily into him.

Damn shame he's already 30-years-old.

 

[Wood530]

Marco Túlio + Over 1,5 Rounds @2,75
Over 1,5 Rounds @2,10

 

[B.Goetz]

Over 1.5 by 8 seconds.

 

[PuertoRican]

Grad vs. Aswell was better than any fight on the Cannonier vs. Borralho card.