Elections Clinton vs. Trump Polls thread, v2

Who wins Florida on election day?

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Fawlty said:
Does anybody know why the LA Times/USC poll is even allowed with the others? I don't know enough about the science of polling obviously, but that one seems absurd.
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Fawlty said:
Does anybody know why the LA Times/USC poll is even allowed with the others? I don't know enough about the science of polling obviously, but that one seems absurd.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/

TLDR:

They're not that bad. They have an almost certain Trump lean, but they do some interesting, experimental stuff with their polling methods, and they've done a good job of detecting trends. Just add 5 or 6 to their figure in favor of clinton, and they're fine.
 
Well shit, that was a really good explanation.
 
 
Space said:
No evidence? I'm pretty sure Trump killed it in the primaries, even when polling behind other Republicans.
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Because:
SidJustice said:
Trump was almost always polling ahead. He never greatly outperformed his poll numbers.
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Trump's performance was within the margin of error for polls and his average performance was only about 2.5 % over polls--and that was largely driven by a few instances.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-polls-bias-224903
 
Here is an excellent article for the people thinking rally sizes means they will automatically win.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...d-sizes-really-compare-to-obamas-2008-crowds/
It compares Obama's rallies in 2008 to Trump's. Obama rallies in 07 and 08 were gigantic, 20k plus at almost everyone. Way bigger than any Trump rally so far.

Clinton's rallies in 08 were alot smaller. You would think he was going to win in a landslide based on rally size, but in the primaries they were neck and neck and were essentially tied in the popular vote at the end.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Sorry, peeps. You cannot use rally size as an effective indicator of success in the election.
 
We all know the war the majority of mainstream media has waged against Trump. He's been portrayed as the next Adolf Hitler, and they've done everything they can to shame his supporters - painting them as uneducated, racist, rednecks.

I have a feeling that there is a LARGE contingent of voters who will vote Trump when the time comes, but are afraid to admit it due to the stigma attached. Most people are non-confrontational and don't want to rock the boat, so maybe they tell their liberal friends, family and coworkers that they don't know who they're voting for. Maybe they even say they're going to vote for Hillary.

Is this possible? Or do you think this is wishful thinking on the part of a Hillary hater? I don't live in the States so I'm unaware of the political climate on the ground level there.
 
I mean the majority of the Brexit polls in the UK remaining in the EU, but they still won. I don't think Trump will win but that's something to take into consideration.
 
I'd say both candidates are benefiting from that.
Both are also benefiting from people who wish they had a real candidate to vote for but they'll vote for the other candidate to stop a nut from getting real power.

I tend to think anyone who hasn't made a decision by now must be kind of stupid though.
One is selfish and competent, the other is selfish and incompetent.
What the people really need is an incontinent shellfish.
 
In Sweden, a so-called right-wing party constantly gets lower percentages of support in the polls compared to their results in the election.

At the same time, media pushed the extreme left wing feminist party and according to their polls, received much higher support than they did in the election.

One of the companies that do polls that have been the best at nailing the support for the rights wing party is rejected by mainstream media because they don't agree with how they measure these polls.

What's funny about that is that they loved to use their polls when left wing parties received soaring support.

And just to clarify, I have never voted or supported the right wing party in question. I only despise medias bias and dishonesty.
 
Overpressure said:
I'd say both candidates are benefiting from that.
Both are also benefiting from people who wish they had a real candidate to vote for but they'll vote for the other candidate to stop a nut from getting real power.

I tend to think anyone who hasn't made a decision by now must be kind of stupid though.
One is selfish and competent, the other is selfish and incompetent.
What the people really need is an incontinent shellfish.
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Yep, the people still on the fence about what they're going to do are stupid. The position of the candidates on the issues have been out there for over a year. A lot of people have already decided if they are going to vote Trump, Hillary, third-party or not vote at all.

The dumb people who are on the fence (and usually the people who decide these races) are swayed by things like gaffes, scandals and one-ups from debates.
 
DannyNL said:
We all know the war the majority of mainstream media has waged against Trump. He's been portrayed as the next Adolf Hitler, and they've done everything they can to shame his supporters - painting them as uneducated, racist, rednecks.

I have a feeling that there is a LARGE contingent of voters who will vote Trump when the time comes, but are afraid to admit it due to the stigma attached. Most people are non-confrontational and don't want to rock the boat, so maybe they tell their liberal friends, family and coworkers that they don't know who they're voting for. Maybe they even say they're going to vote for Hillary.

Is this possible? Or do you think this is wishful thinking on the part of a Hillary hater? I don't live in the States so I'm unaware of the political climate on the ground level there.
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All I will tell you is this: I live in the most liberal state in America, and all I've seen are dozens of Trump supporters, a few Bernie supporters and "Hillary For Prison 2016" stickers everywhere. I have yet to see even one Hillary supporter anywhere, one time.
 
Well I wouldn't call myself a supporter, but I'll probably vote for trump. I keep that to myself though. I don't talk politics with friends or family or participate in polls. I would only vote trump because he's the turd that stinks the least.
 
GoldenAzazel said:
I mean the majority of the Brexit polls in the UK remaining in the EU, but they still won. I don't think Trump will win but that's something to take into consideration.
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Yeah but those polls were close and within the margin of error.

Also I'm not familiar with British politics and media. Are their polls as accurate as American polls historically?
 
PolishHeadlock said:
Yeah but those polls were close and within the margin of error.

Also I'm not familiar with British politics and media. Are their polls as accurate as American polls historically?
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Not too sure how accurate they are actually. That's a good point though.
 
The fact Donald fucking Trump is still a presidential candidate speaks volumes about how many people despise Hillary.
 
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