Elections Clinton vs. Trump Polls thread, v2

Who wins Florida on election day?

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nostradumbass said:
It wouldn't? I'd be very surprised by that. I think high school dropouts are overwhelmingly democrats, and everything I've read suggests the same. The notion that republicans are just "rednecks voting against their interest" is just another political trick and is simply not true. I only know like 2 responsible adults who still vote democrat.

I'm only pointing out that voting for a candidate demanding higher taxes is very easy if it doesn't apply to you. If the "lower class" suddenly went away, the democrats would take a lot harder hit than republicans.

They don't have to be wealthy, but landowners don't seem to vote in numbers that they should. With just 2 parties, it becomes a game of "givers vs takers", and there isn't really a question of which society could do without.
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Read again - PAST highschool. I wouldn't be surprised it highschool dropouts are overwhelmingly democrats either, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised if people with college degrees are overwhelmingly democrats. I'm at a university several times a week and, let me tell you, I don't see many right wingers around... If my experience is anywhere near accurate - and I believe I've seen you participating in threads about how left wing universities tend to be? - then a majority of college educated students are democrat voters. Myself? I know a lot of responsible adults who vote both ways - but, I was raised in an area that is pretty middle of the road. I bet that the number of responsible adults you know who vote either way varies greatly depending on where you live.

Meh, the claim "voting for a candidate demanding _______ is very easy if it doesn't apply to you" is a very versatile claim. It can be applied to religious freedoms, abortion rights, medical access, gun rights.... Well, you get the idea. It's absolutely true in many circumstances - part of why it's an easy sell - but it's also pretty widely applied by both parties. I could say "If the 'less than college educated' suddenly went away, the republicans would take a lot harder hit than democrats" and it would likely be true - but to what end? I'm not trying to devalue voters here based on their education. I also don't want to devalue voters based on their income, even if I wouldn't always want to sit in a bar with said voters...

Your last paragraph is gold, and I think it could be applied to other categories too. Land owners don't vote enough, educated people don't breed enough, and so on and so forth.. But here we are. I wish it was otherwise - but I respect why it isn't. I'd love to see more varied parties - then we'd have fewer people clamoring about how I'm a republican - but there aren't really parties to represent a lot of positions, and that results in varied people getting stuck into rigid power blocks. It could be significantly improved.
 
Also. Florida is not a key state for Clinton.

Trump has to win Florida to have a chance.

Clinton does not. If she wins Florida, it basically just means Trump has lost.
 
I understand Trumps prospects are looking very bad at this point in the race, don't get me wrong.
 
ehtheist said:
Read again - PAST highschool. I wouldn't be surprised it highschool dropouts are overwhelmingly democrats either, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised if people with college degrees are overwhelmingly democrats. I'm at a university several times a week and, let me tell you, I don't see many right wingers around... If my experience is anywhere near accurate - and I believe I've seen you participating in threads about how left wing universities tend to be? - then a majority of college educated students are democrat voters. Myself? I know a lot of responsible adults who vote both ways - but, I was raised in an area that is pretty middle of the road. I bet that the number of responsible adults you know who vote either way varies greatly depending on where you live.

Meh, the claim "voting for a candidate demanding _______ is very easy if it doesn't apply to you" is a very versatile claim. It can be applied to religious freedoms, abortion rights, medical access, gun rights.... Well, you get the idea. It's absolutely true in many circumstances - part of why it's an easy sell - but it's also pretty widely applied by both parties. I could say "If the 'less than college educated' suddenly went away, the republicans would take a lot harder hit than democrats" and it would likely be true - but to what end? I'm not trying to devalue voters here based on their education. I also don't want to devalue voters based on their income, even if I wouldn't always want to sit in a bar with said voters...

Your last paragraph is gold, and I think it could be applied to other categories too. Land owners don't vote enough, educated people don't breed enough, and so on and so forth.. But here we are. I wish it was otherwise - but I respect why it isn't. I'd love to see more varied parties - then we'd have fewer people clamoring about how I'm a republican - but there aren't really parties to represent a lot of positions, and that results in varied people getting stuck into rigid power blocks. It could be significantly improved.
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Past high school is college. Less than college educated does also HS include dropouts, and I still would be surprised to find out that the less than college educated were more likely to vote republican and I don't think it would be close. I won't doubt for a second that college kids are overwhelmingly liberals, but there is a difference between "college educated" and a CURRENT college student, most notably that one pays taxes and one doesn't.

We've all heard this quote.
If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain
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It actually is the same people who change political affiliations when they start working and paying taxes. I, and a shitload of other people, was a liberal when I was in college and got out when my paychecks started having a column for "this is what you've worked for", and a separate column for "this is what we're going to let you keep".

Total agreement with smart people not breeding enough etc, but the question then becomes how much are you on the hook for the other people who are not smart, don't make good decisions, and are indiscriminately breeding? Where does compassion end and foolishness begin?
 
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ehtheist said:
Meh, doesn't take away from my point. Wouldn't surprise me if "If every voter had to show they were educated past highschool, no election would be close" going in the other direction, but saying something like that is just some attempted smear job on a part of the voter base which has a valuable voice worth hearing. The whole point of a modern Democracy is that everybody gets heard, not that we start valuing people based on things like income and all that.

But ultimately, what is your end game here? Are we going back to a "wealthy landowner" standard for Democracy? Is this just some general smear against the low-income voters? Wouldn't you say that the low earners are an important part of our Democracy as well? Not trying to put words in your mouth, but what are you really getting at with this thread?
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Another important question would be "did you really have to mask your partisan jab when the WR is already a polarized shit flinging arena?"
 
nostradumbass said:
The notion that republicans are just "rednecks voting against their interest" is just another political trick and is simply not true. .
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So is your notion that Democrats are only college students and criminals. Now that we've gotten past the partisan BS maybe this thread could turn into a meaningful discussion on voter demographics and turn out like it could've been from the beginning if you didn't insist on making it a shit flinging contest from the outset.
 
nostradumbass said:
Past high school is college. Less than college educated does also HS include dropouts, and I still would be surprised to find out that the less than college educated were more likely to vote republican and I don't think it would be close. I won't doubt for a second that college kids are overwhelmingly liberals, but there is a difference between "college educated" and a CURRENT college student, most notably that one pays taxes and one doesn't.

We've all heard this quote.

It actually is the same people who change political affiliations when they start working and paying taxes. I, and a shitload of other people, was a liberal when I was in college and got out when my paychecks started having a column for "this is what you've worked for", and a separate column for "this is what we're going to let you keep".

Total agreement with smart people not breeding enough etc, but the question then becomes how much are you on the hook for the other people who are not smart, don't make good decisions, and are indiscriminately breeding? Where does compassion end and foolishness begin?
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Well you will be surprised to learn then that Clinton is beating Trump among those who are college educated. Trump's only group he is winning with atm is whites without a college education.
 
Working with the data at 538 and using the 270towin map, I think Trump's chances are very limited. The easiest route to 270 at this point is to win every state 538 gives him more than 20% chance of winning, which includes, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. EVEN if he were to pull that off, he'd be at 269 which would throw the election to the House of Reps. You'd think he would win that given the GOP House majority, but I'd be less sure about it than just about any other candidate. He can get to 270 if he call pull off all of the above AND peel away a house district in Maine.

That's pretty much his only path to nomination that doesn't involve winning states he has less than 20% shot of winning as it sits according to 538.
 
SidJustice said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gary-johnson-isnt-fading/

Some Johnson polling news.

Good news: He is not fading down the stretch like most independents.

Bad news: He is stuck at about 9%, which is pretty useless for him.
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I'd like to see how he is doing state by state. Does he put Clinton in jeopardy in NM? Does he pull western libertarians from Trump in Nevada, Utah, AZ or MT?

Depending on how much of the vote share he gets in those states and where he is pulling it from, he could make a difference even if he doesn't get any EC votes.
 
ncordless said:
Well you will be surprised to learn then that Clinton is beating Trump among those who are college educated. Trump's only group he is winning with atm is whites without a college education.
Click to expand...
And also white males with a college degree. Saying "those who are college educated" is intentionally leaving out that it's because women are the reason for. This is also not a normal race, since it's being run by the 2 candidates with highest unfavorability ratings.
“Our data hints at a burst balloon of enthusiasm among younger voters,” Selzer said. “Among those who do intend to vote, a majority support Clinton, but more of them do so to stop Trump than to support Clinton.”
Click to expand...
 
nostradumbass said:
And also white males with a college degree. Saying "those who are college educated" is intentionally leaving out that it's because women are the reason for. This is also not a normal race, since it's being run by the 2 candidates with highest unfavorability ratings.
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Well you can subdivide any category to get the minority out of it that goes the opposite way. Trump may win with sport fishermen, but he loses with Sport fishermen of Native American descent. See.
 
ncordless said:
I'd like to see how he is doing state by state. Does he put Clinton in jeopardy in NM? Does he pull western libertarians from Trump in Nevada, Utah, AZ or MT?

Depending on how much of the vote share he gets in those states and where he is pulling it from, he could make a difference even if he doesn't get any EC votes.
Click to expand...
538 actually has those stats. If you click the states on the map, it shows all the voter share.

So for instance, in NM he is doing about 16% of the vote. But Hillary is still pulling around 46%. So it seems like, at least there, he is hurting Trump more than Clinton.
 
SidJustice said:
538 actually has those stats. If you click the states on the map, it shows all the voter share.

So for instance, in NM he is doing about 16% of the vote. But Hillary is still pulling around 46%. So it seems like, at least there, he is hurting Trump more than Clinton.
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Interesting. Looks like Johnson is getting over 15% in Montana, too. If he can pull another 5% or so away from Trump, it becomes a battleground.
 
ncordless said:
Well you can subdivide any category to get the minority out of it that goes the opposite way. Trump may win with sport fishermen, but he loses with Sport fishermen of Native American descent. See.
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You are the one who divided one group by race and not the other. Trump is beating her among white guys total, and there was no need for you to section it off further by adding "without a college education"
 
nostradumbass said:
You are the one who divided one group by race and not the other. Trump is beating her among white guys total, and there was no need for you to section it off further by adding "without a college education"
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That is true, although compared to 2012, he is losing ground with white guys with a degree as well.



Statisical evidence that the GOP literally got dumber when it chose Trump as its nominee.
 
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ncordless said:
That is true, although compared to 2012, he is losing ground with white guys with a degree as well.



Statisical evidence that the GOP literally got dumber when it chose Trump as its nominee.
Click to expand...

This explains so much
 
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